It’s been tough measuring what books have on their minds when setting the spread in head-to-head games between Houston and the L.A. Lakers. The recent pool of games we can rely on for examination has had the Rockets installed anywhere from 6 ½-point favorites to four-point underdogs all at home. And now as this piece is being penned, Las Vegas Sports Consultants has just released the opening line in favor of the visiting Lakers by 2 ½-points. How do we make sense of this value?
The first order of business is to clarify that Houston has been installed as a home underdog just twice during the regular season. It was no coincidence that one of these two games involved playing the Lakers at home on Jan. 13. At that time, the Rockets entered that tip-off as four-point home ‘dogs. But maybe the most glaring of similarities between then and now is injured Tracy McGrady. In that January 105-100 loss, Houston found itself running end-to-end without T-Mac.
But despite the SU and ATS loss for the Rockets in that regular season contest, 50 points scored in the paint by both squads, both teams shooting over 50 percent and a very close contest heading into the fourth quarter (82-78 lead for Houston at this point) had bettors sitting on the edge of their seats.
We talked about Kobe Bryant taking too many shots in Game 1, 31 to be exact. That figure equated to dropping 14 regular seasons games when L.A.’s perennial all-star attempted 20-plus shots in any given contest. That leads us to the Lakers bucking that trend in the Jan. 13 win when Bryant tossed up 32 attempts (draining 13 of them for 33 points). Wednesday’s theatrics was a follow up to this scenario as Bryant was responsible for hitting 16-of-27 shots for 40 points. Just another example of how the 20-plus shots worked in the Lakers favor versus the opposite reaction for much of the season.
It must be taken into consideration that the four-point spread could also be attributed to Ron Artest being MIA, recovering from a sprained right ankle. Home court advantage was surely nullified, credited to two of the Rockets biggest stars sitting in street cloths.
Game 3 won’t have McGrady stepping back onto the court as we all know, but roll player, Artest will be on the hardwood (given that the NBA doesn’t hand down any disciplinary action). His futile, 8-for-18 effort resulting in 25 points with five assists and two steals was overshadowed by an ejection on Wednesday after a confrontation materialized with Bryant. Talking about Game 2, 20 turnovers committed by Houston was just one of many reasons why the Lake Show took its first home game win in this series, 111-98.
Some other problems that the Rockets couldn’t overcome on Wednesday was allowing L.A. to tab 44 points inside the paint (10 more then Houston could muster up), granting the opposition to shoot 50 percent from the field all while getting picked off on 11 steels. It’s not hard to figure out why the 10-point spread in favor of the home team was money in the bank (not to mention outscoring Houston, 54-41 in the second half).
Contemplate this question; can Houston apply the same pressure that we witnessed in Game 1 of this best of seven or will the Lakers come out guns blazing? Vegasinsider.com handicapper Doc’s Sports, who’s amongst the best in money leaders at +3289 on the year, explained, “The Lakers missed a ton of threes in Game 1, but the Rockets will have to play better overall defense if they hope to extend this series. But we think the Lakers will play some 'D' as well, and there could be some value in the totals as we go along.” He added, “The Lakers really have the personnel to be one of the best defensive teams in the league, and they show this at times. But with all the offensive weapons they have why not just outscore opponents from night to night?”
Before even contemplating which direction to take before punching out tickets any news on possible league actions from Game 2 must be taken seriously. The NBA must assess Kobe Bryant’s high elbow swing, Ron Artest’s ejection and Derek Fisher’s flagrant-2 foul against Houston’s Luis Scola. There’s no doubt that point movement could very well go in any direction based on these ramifications. Update: Derek Fisher was handed a one-game suspension for the Scola body check.
Some of the cold hard facts leading up to this Western Conference clash include the Lakers’ strong hold when playing the Rockets in Houston as indicated by an 8-2 ATS tally in the last 10 meetings. In the last two games played in “Space City”, L.A. has emerged with the two straight SU and ATS wins, outscoring its opponent by the average score of 103.5 to 98 PPG. And just for added interest, the Rockets are 18-14 ATS at home without Tracy McGrady in the lineup.
Overall, the Lakers have had the most success at the counter, turning a 7-2 ATS record in their last nine matchups against Houston into bonafide winners. That 3-0 ‘under’ record that was so graciously emphasized in the Game 2 preview was broken on Wednesday, going ‘over’ the set 193 mark. Books have come out of the gate by labeling this contest’s total at the 195 mark.
What we can carry over from the last two playoff games is that neither team will be bowing out of this series easily. If Game 2 is any indication of what we can expect down the stretch that fasten your seat belts because the ride has just started.
Game time is set for 9:30 p.m. EST. ESPN will be handling televised duties.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
