Heading into the weekend, both Denver and Cleveland have played to expectations. The downright truth is the favorite in all four individual series has played into backers’ pockets, mustering up a 6-2 ATS billing.
The action continues on Saturday as ESPN will begin coverage at 5:00 p.m. EST. Dallas not only finds itself down 0-2 in the Conference Semifinals but “personal” problems facing Dirk Nowitzki and a defense that’s fallen off the wagon are of concern. But as four-point home favorites, do backers question the legitimacy of the Mavericks shot in Game 3?
It’s been tough going in the books for Dallas when facing Denver on the same court. In just the last 10 games alone, the Mavs have covered the spread just once and are a skimp, 3-10 ATS in the last 13. To say that the Nuggets have a leg up on the competition would be understating the facts.
Inside the numbers it’s no wonder why Dallas finds itself not only down in the series but unable to scratch together the smallest of results against this specific opponent. In Sunday’s Game 1 tangle, point guard Jason Kidd thought that passes to the team in white would equal assists. The problem with that logic was that the light colored uniformed players where Denver’s home jerseys. The result was Kidd tossing away eight turnovers. At the end of the contest, the box score had the Mavs totaling 20 turnovers in all.
Defense is another story. Dallas has allowed Denver to shoot 54.8 percent in Game 1 and 50 percent in Game 2. The Nuggets have opened up the floor like an interstate highway, combining for 54 fast break points (versus Dallas’ 13) in both games while bullying their way into the paint for an eye popping 108 points (that’s a whopping 48 percent of the team’s total points scored).
But none of this should come as a surprise. Since December of 2007, Denver has had their way against Dallas, averaging 106.6 PPG. In-fact the Nuggets have found a way to break the century scoring mark six times in the last nine games, all of which have resulted in the ATS win.
It’s no secret that the Mavs turnover problems, scoring woes and inept defense are making it difficult when entering the final stretch of these contests. Turn back to Game 1 and the Nuggets were up by seven points entering the fourth quarter. Outscoring Dallas 27-20 improved that point cushion with a final, 109-95. Game 2 had a similar feel but more pronounced as Denver powered through the final quarter on a 16-2 run. The final score was 117-105. So to say that the Mavs have had a shot at the tail end of these games is inaccurate at best.
With Denver at 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, the four points doesn’t seem like a tough handicap. Maybe the more attractive wager is in the totals department. The Nuggets are not only 4-1 on the ‘under’ in the last five playoff appearances but have dragged down the Mavs into hitting the ‘under’ four times in their last five meetings. Even more convincing is Denver’s 18-7 ‘under’ performance in the last 25 when installed as the underdog and Dallas’ blinding, 62-30 ‘under’ record since 1996 when facing off against a Northwest division opponent (ok, a far stretch but one worth noting none the less). Sportsbook.com has opened the total at 209 ½.
Leaving Tuesday’s game with an ankle injury, the Mavs’ Josh Howard is ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s start. Howard has missed a total of 28 games this season (ranging from the nagging ankle to wrist injuries) for which the team has gone 11-17 ATS in his absence.
When installed as a four-point favorite this season, the Mavs are 4-2 ATS versus Denver’s 1-3 ATS as the four-point ‘dog.
As usual, the closing number to think deeply about is 11-30. That’s Dallas’ ATS record when giving up 100-plus points in both the regular and post season. Do the Mavs really have a chance at holding back an amped up Carmelo Anthony (24 PPG and 5 APG in playoffs) and born again center, Nene (13.4 PPG and 7.1 RPG in playoffs) in the hopes of grabbing Game 3?
Cleveland at Atlanta (-8, 180) – 8:00 p.m. EST
Not to sound like an editorial piece but who really believes that Atlanta can even keep just one-game close in this best of seven? As expected, the Cavaliers proceeded to steam roll over the Hawks on Thursday, 105-85. Even after LeBron James logged in a diminished 31-plus minutes of play (a little over 34 minutes in Game 1 after averaging 37 minutes during the season), Cleveland was still able to keep a 20-point cushion at the end of the contest.
That brings us to Game 3, the matter at hand. Since we’re hard pressed not to turn our focus away from the dominant team in this matchup, let’s take a peak at what a struggling Atlanta squad is in store for. Most books have set head coach Mike Woodson’s team as an eight-point home favorite with a total set at 180.
The Hawks may have escaped the Miami series, shooting an average 42.2 percent from the field but hitting only 38.8 percent of their field goals in this series has led to scoring 78.5 PPG. Returning back home for which it went 3-1 SU and ATS versus the Heat, are we looking at a vague probability for the Hawks to cover as eight-point underdogs?
The good news, while not convincing, has Atlanta at 3-2 ATS in its last five against the Cavs. The three ATS wins came as eight and four point underdogs (two home games and one road). The key to these wins at the window was a 44.1 percent success rate shooting from the floor and 33.8 percent from beyond the arc (with the exception of one contest that had Atlanta hitting only 28.6 percent from three land).
Another common number floating around these three ATS head-to-head wins was the Hawks outscoring the Cavaliers in two of the contests in the second half. And what’s been the recurring theme in this current series? Atlanta getting blown out of the water in the second half of Game 1, 50-28 while just squeaking out the edge in Game 2, 50-46 (lucky enough in support of the ‘over’ 181.5). But with Cleveland getting the best of Atlanta, outscoring the squad 59-35 in the first half, the second half result wasn’t pivotal in terms of covering the spread.
It’s going to take a hope and a dream for the Hawks to keep this one close. Maybe looking at a half of solid play is realistic but to get four quarters of positive momentum against a Cavs team that’s playing well above the rim, it might be asking too much at this point.
The favorite is 18-8 ATS in the last 26 head-to-head meetings and Cleveland is a smoking 11-1 ATS in its last 12 overall games.
Joshua Jacobs can be reached at jacobs@vegasinsider.com.
