The Thursday NBA card will likely be overshadowed by the first day of March Mayhem, but TNT will televise a pair of games, allowing bettors an alternative to college hoops. The battle of the Sunshine State leads off the double-header with the Heat hosting the Magic, followed by the Nuggets entertaining the Hornets.
Magic (48-21 SU, 37-31-1 ATS) at Heat (35-33 SU, 34-34 ATS)
These two Southeast Division rivals meet for the final team in the regular season as Orlando tries to even up the series at two games apiece (7:00 PM EST). The Magic will be playing with no rest following Wednesday's home win over the Spurs. San Antonio ran out Miami on Tuesday in the opening leg of a trip through Florida, as the Heat fell to the Spurs, 88-76.
The Magic have improved greatly on the road since a mid-season slump away from Amway Arena. Orlando is 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS the last nine on the highway, even though its last three victories are over the Wizards, Nets, and Sixers. Stan Van Gundy's squad has limited eight of the last nine opponents to 100 points or less, while ten of the previous 13 games have finished 'under' the total.
Miami's six-game winning streak at the AAA was halted by San Antonio, but the only positive sign from the loss was the Heat allowing less than 100 points for the sixth consecutive game. The 'under' against the Spurs did end a six-game 'over' streak at home for the Heat, while Erik Spoelstra's team is now 5-2 ATS the last seven in South Florida.
The Heat owns the upper-hand in the series with a pair of victories over the Magic during the first two months of the season. Miami edged Orlando in central Florida the night before Thanksgiving, 99-98 on a late Michael Beasley tip-in. The Heat cashed as 9 ½-point 'dogs, the first win in Orlando since February 15, 2006. Miami chased Orlando out less than a month later at home, 104-86, again covering easily as four-point home underdogs. The Magic avenged those two losses with a 96-80 pasting of the Heat in late February, cashing as 11 ½-point favorites.
Hornets (33-36 SU, 31-37-1 ATS) at Nuggets (46-22, 31-32-5 ATS)
New Orleans continues a five-game road trip with the final meeting against Denver, trying to beat the Nuggets for a second time. The Hornets will be on the second of a back-to-back after Wednesday's ten-point loss at Golden State. The Nuggets, meanwhile, had to slug through a lackluster 97-87 win over the Wizards on Tuesday, the first home game following a four-game roadie.
The Hornets have nearly dropped out of playoff contention in the Western Conference after losing nine of their previous 12 games. The month of March has not been a pleasant one for backers of New Orleans with a 1-7 ATS run. Jeff Bower's club has struggled against the best teams in the West, going 5-16 SU and 8-12-1 ATS versus the top seven clubs in playoff contention.
The Nuggets have won seven of eight with the only hiccup coming in a three-point road loss to the Rockets. Denver has failed to cover back-to-back games for only the second time since early January, going 10-2-1 ATS the last 13 off an ATS loss. George Karl's team is just 4-6 ATS the last ten at Pepsi Center, but seven of those games have finished 'over' the total.
Denver topped New Orleans, 102-95 in the Big Easy on March 12, as the Nuggets closed out the game with a 29-20 fourth quarter. The Hornets managed covers in the first two meetings, including a 116-110 overtime setback at the Pepsi Center as 12-point 'dogs in late January. New Orleans has not won in Denver since Thanksgiving Night in 2008, a span of six games.
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:
-- It's amazing how the tables have turned in the bottom half of the Eastern Conference playoff race over the last month. The Bucks needed to make a run, while the Bobcats were slowly disappearing in the race. Both these teams have straightened things out, while the Raptors and Bulls can't get out of their own way. Toronto has dropped nine of eleven, but bounced back with Wednesday's last-second victory over Atlanta. Chicago is dealing with a multitude of injuries, while losing nine straight games. Following Wednesday's setback at Dallas, the Bulls have been listed as a double-digit underdog four consecutive times.
-- One team that has definitely not turned the corner is the lowly Minnesota Timberwolves. Kurt Rambis' squad is riding an 11-game losing skid, while dropping 17 of 18 since a four-game winning streak in February. The low point of this slump was Sunday in a 14-point loss at Sacramento, in which the Wolves trailed by as many 34 points. That was trumped two days later when Minnesota allowed a season-high 152 points at Phoenix, the second time the Wolves have yielded at least 146 points this season.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
