Mavericks vs. Lakers Predictions, Odds

• December 25, 2020
• By Michael Crosson
• VegasInsider.com

The NBA’s Christmas tradition would not be complete without LeBron James putting on his annual holiday show for basketball fans across the globe as he and the Los Angeles Lakers will host the Dallas Mavericks in the primetime slot on what is typically the best day of the NBA regular season.

Betting Resources

• Matchup: Western Conference
• Expert Picks: Vegas Insiders
• Venue: Staples Center
• Location: Los Angeles, California
• Date: Friday, December 25, 2020
• Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
• Bet: BetMGM | BetRivers | FanDuel | PointsBet | All

Betting Odds - Mavericks vs. Lakers

Line Movements

Subject to Change

• Spread: Los Angeles -6
• Money-Line: Los Angeles -250 Dallas +210
• Total: 227

The Lakers and the Mavericks are both off to an 0-1 start to the season, but the oddsmakers are still electing to roll Los Angeles out as an even heavier favorite than it was on opening night, coming into Friday night’s contest as a 6.5-point favorite.

Mavericks-Lakers Current Form-Last Game

The Lakers squared off with the Clippers on Tuesday night, and after falling behind by 20 points at the end of the first quarter, spent the most of their time scratching a clawing to get back in the game, only to have Paul George heat up and bury them (2nd half – 26 points, 83.3%) as soon as the lead appeared to be within reach (L – 116-109).

Dallas, on the other hand, was the first team to take a crack at the Phoenix Suns with newly acquired Chris Paul from Oklahoma City, and while Luka Doncic managed to have a spectacular day for the Mavs (32 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists), they still came up just short in the season opener as the Suns escaped with a narrow, 106-102, victory.

Mavericks vs. Lakers Head-to-Head

• Jan. 10, 2020 - Lakers 129 at Mavs 114, Los Angeles +2.5, Over 223
• Dec. 29, 2019 - Lakers 108 vs. Mavs 95, Los Angeles -5, Under 224.5
• Dec. 1, 2019 - Mavs 114 at Lakers 100, Dallas + -6.5, Under 222.5
• Nov. 1, 2019 - Lakers 119 at Mavs 110, Los Angeles -1, Over 218

In four regular season meetings between these teams last year, the Lakers emerged victorious in three of those contests, winning those games by an average margin of 12 points.

What I found most interesting about Lakers-Mavs games last season was the effect Kristaps’ absence seemed to have on the overall game flow within this matchup, as the contest Porzingis did not participate in happened to be the highest scoring affair between each other on the year by a decent margin (129-114), which also includes an overtime game.

After witnessing the Suns-Mavs matchup on Wednesday night stay way under the total, I personally am staying away from the over-under for Friday’ game, but if there is a side of the total to be on, I would advise taking the ‘over’ for this matchup after seeing what happened last time without Porzingis.

(SU-Straight Up, ATS - Against the Spread, OU - Over-Under)

Mavericks Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

• Overall: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U

I love watching Luka play as much as the next guy, but the fact of the matter for the Mavericks is that they just aren’t the same caliber of a team when Porzingis is not on the floor, and it showed last season when Dallas dropped games against Phoenix, Atlanta, Charlotte, Denver, Oklahoma City, and LAL during his absence.

I would not put it past Doncic to keep Dallas in this game by himself or even win it, but the Mavs are likely at a much steeper disadvantage than they might imagine heading into a game against the best team in the NBA without their second best player.

Lakers Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats (2020-2021)

• Overall: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U

The Lakers may not have won the game on Tuesday night, but not all was lost as the two biggest offseason additions to LA’s roster, Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell, had big days kicking off their careers in purple and gold, combining for 31 points, 22 rebounds, and 11 assists against the Clippers.

Relatively subpar days for the Laker superstar duo, as AD had a rare game in which he failed to eclipse both the 20-point mark and 10-rebound mark on the night, while on the other side of things LeBron compiled 22 points on just 41% shooting from the field.

Clearly, it took the Lakers a full quarter of action to knock the rust off as they played virtually no defense in the first quarter on Tuesday night (39 points allowed) and managed to tally only 19 of their own points in the opening stanza. I expect Los Angeles to come out and put an emphasis on playing a full four quarters against the Mavericks on Christmas.

LeBron and the Lakers weren't on target in their opener as they fell to the Clippers at home on Tuesday. (AP)

2020 Notable Player Movement

Dallas Mavericks

Additions

• James Johnson
• Josh Richardson

Subtractions

• JJ Barea
• Seth Curry
• Justin Jackson

L.A. Lakers

Additions

• Marc Gasol
• Montrezl Harrell
• Wesley Matthews
• Dennis Schroder

Subtractions

• Avery Bradley
• Danny Green
• Dwight Howard
• JaVale McGee
• Rajon Rondo
• J.R. Smith
• Dion Waiters

Key Injuries

Dallas Mavericks

• PF Kristaps Porzingis: Knee - Out

L.A. Lakers

• SF LeBron James: Ankle - Game Time Decision

LeBron landed on his ankle awkwardly during the Lakers’ loss to the Clippers on Tuesday night, but he was still able to finish the contest and has now given an update saying he does not expect the injury to affect his Christmas Day status against the Mavericks.

Expect King James to be at full-strength on Friday evening despite his “questionable” injury designation.

All-Star power forward, Kristaps Porzingis, received surgery on his right knee repairing a torn meniscus over this past off-season and is not expected to suit up for the Mavs until at least mid-January.

Player Prop Best Bet

Luka Doncic – Over 30.5 total points (-116)

Doncic scored 32 points in the Mavericks’ season opener against the Suns by shooting 11 for 26 from the field (42.3%) and a blinding 0 for 6 from 3-point territory.

The Lakers played lazy defense for the first three quarters of their opening contest with the Clippers and if that happens again on Christmas, I expect Luka to take full advantage of that and carry his team into contention with the Lakers on Friday night.

In order for the Mavs to remain competitive for the length of this contest, they will most likely need their All-Star point guard to take a similar shot-volume while getting to the foul-line more and making his field goal attempts at a more consistent clip.

Back Doncic to score over 30 as I think he keeps this contest close for at least three and a half quarters.

Mavs vs. Lakers Predictions

Score Prediction: Lakers 119, Mavericks 110
Best Bet: Los Angeles -6

For those who remember how the Lakers fared in last year’s Christmas Day blockbuster, LeBron and company were defeated by the Clippers (111-106) as Kawhi Leonard and company handed their inner-city rival a loss in a second consecutive regular season matchup.

Prior to last year, King James had won nine of his last 13 Christmas Day games.

I’ll back the Lakers -6 to bounce back emphatically in primetime and really hand it to the Mavericks down the stretch of this game.