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Andy Iskoe┬┤s NFL Power Rankings

 
LINEAR REGRESSION POWER RATINGS
Rank Team Rating HFA Home Away
1 New England 110.77 1.77 111.65 109.88
2 Seattle 109.43 6.06 112.46 106.40
3 Denver 108.54 -0.18 108.45 108.63
4 Green Bay 108.46 3.57 110.24 106.67
5 Indianapolis 105.98 3.04 107.50 104.46
6 Baltimore 105.42 4.29 107.57 103.28
7 Dallas 105.38 2.61 106.68 104.07
8 Kansas City 105.29 -0.48 105.05 105.53
9 Buffalo 104.79 5.23 107.40 102.17
10 Philadelphia 104.04 0.86 104.47 103.61
11 Miami 102.45 0.86 102.88 102.02
12 Detroit 102.03 3.52 103.79 100.27
13 Houston 102.00 2.83 103.41 100.58
14 Pittsburgh 101.91 3.28 103.55 100.27
15 San Diego 101.56 1.23 102.18 100.95
16 Arizona 100.91 4.14 102.98 98.84
17 Cincinnati 100.32 4.46 102.55 98.09
18 St. Louis 98.89 3.41 100.59 97.18
19 San Francisco 98.77 4.48 101.01 96.53
20 Minnesota 98.40 4.04 100.42 96.38
21 N.Y. Giants 98.38 2.02 99.39 97.37
22 Carolina 97.76 4.24 99.88 95.64
23 New Orleans 97.26 6.21 100.36 94.15
24 Cleveland 96.29 3.05 97.81 94.76
25 Atlanta 96.26 4.52 98.52 94.00
26 N.Y. Jets 94.79 1.87 95.72 93.85
27 Chicago 93.33 3.56 95.11 91.55
28 Washington 91.35 0.84 91.77 90.93
29 Oakland 90.68 -1.29 90.03 91.32
30 Tampa Bay 90.37 3.85 92.30 88.45
31 Jacksonville 89.80 -0.15 89.73 89.88
32 Tennessee 88.42 2.39 89.61 87.22
NFL Average 100.00 2.82 101.41 98.59
 
AVERAGE LINE PLAYED AGAINST POWER RATINGS
Rank Team Rating HFA Home Away
1 Denver 107.61 -0.18 107.52 107.70
2 Seattle 107.16 6.06 110.19 104.13
3 Green Bay 105.27 3.57 107.06 103.49
4 New Orleans 104.30 6.21 107.40 101.19
5 New England 104.26 1.77 105.14 103.37
6 San Francisco 103.42 4.48 105.66 101.18
7 Indianapolis 102.84 3.04 104.36 101.32
8 Baltimore 102.44 4.29 104.59 100.30
9 Detroit 101.72 3.52 103.48 99.96
10 Dallas 101.53 2.61 102.83 100.22
11 Philadelphia 101.52 0.86 101.95 101.09
12 Pittsburgh 101.36 3.28 103.00 99.72
13 Cincinnati 101.28 4.46 103.51 99.05
14 Miami 101.17 0.86 101.60 100.74
15 Kansas City 100.95 -0.48 100.71 101.19
16 San Diego 100.52 1.23 101.13 99.90
17 Buffalo 99.64 5.23 102.26 97.03
18 Arizona 98.83 4.14 100.90 96.76
19 Houston 98.65 2.83 100.07 97.24
20 Atlanta 98.61 4.52 100.87 96.35
21 N.Y. Giants 98.31 2.02 99.32 97.30
22 Carolina 98.28 4.24 100.40 96.16
23 Cleveland 98.04 3.05 99.57 96.52
24 Chicago 97.99 3.56 99.77 96.21
25 St. Louis 97.96 3.41 99.67 96.26
26 Minnesota 97.21 4.04 99.23 95.19
27 N.Y. Jets 96.93 1.87 97.87 96.00
28 Washington 96.46 0.84 96.88 96.04
29 Tampa Bay 95.35 3.85 97.28 93.43
30 Tennessee 94.60 2.39 95.80 93.41
31 Oakland 93.08 -1.29 92.43 93.72
32 Jacksonville 92.68 -0.15 92.60 92.75
NFL Average 100.00 2.82 101.41 98.59
 
AVERAGE RESULT VERSUS LINE POWER RATINGS
Rank Team Rating HFA Home Away
1 New England 106.51 1.77 107.39 105.62
2 Buffalo 105.14 5.23 107.76 102.53
3 Kansas City 104.34 -0.48 104.10 104.58
4 Dallas 103.85 2.61 105.15 102.54
5 Houston 103.35 2.83 104.76 101.93
6 Green Bay 103.19 3.57 104.97 101.40
7 Indianapolis 103.14 3.04 104.66 101.62
8 Baltimore 102.98 4.29 105.12 100.83
9 Philadelphia 102.52 0.86 102.95 102.09
10 Seattle 102.27 6.06 105.30 99.24
11 Arizona 102.07 4.14 104.14 100.00
12 Miami 101.28 0.86 101.71 100.85
13 Minnesota 101.18 4.04 103.20 99.16
14 San Diego 101.05 1.23 101.66 100.43
15 St. Louis 100.93 3.41 102.63 99.22
16 Denver 100.92 -0.18 100.83 101.01
17 Pittsburgh 100.54 3.28 102.18 98.90
18 Detroit 100.31 3.52 102.07 98.55
19 N.Y. Giants 100.06 2.02 101.07 99.05
20 Carolina 99.48 4.24 101.60 97.36
21 Cincinnati 99.04 4.46 101.27 96.81
22 Cleveland 98.24 3.05 99.77 96.72
23 N.Y. Jets 97.85 1.87 98.79 96.92
24 Atlanta 97.65 4.52 99.91 95.39
25 Oakland 97.60 -1.29 96.96 98.25
26 Jacksonville 97.13 -0.15 97.05 97.20
27 San Francisco 95.35 4.48 97.59 93.11
28 Chicago 95.34 3.56 97.12 93.56
29 Tampa Bay 95.02 3.85 96.94 93.09
30 Washington 94.88 0.84 95.30 94.46
31 Tennessee 93.82 2.39 95.01 92.62
32 New Orleans 92.96 6.21 96.06 89.85
NFL Average 100.00 2.82 101.41 98.59
Updated Wed Jan 14 7:40 AM EDT

-- Explanation of Data Items --

Linear Regression Power Ratings - Based upon a Linear Regression analysis of points scored and allowed (i.e. Margin of Victories and Defeats). Simply explained, the above Ratings reflect differences based upon the following: "If Team A beats Team B by 7, and Team C beats Team D by 13, and Team C beats Team A by 2, etc., how much better is Team A than Team D?" Thus the above Ratings attempt to compare all teams based upon who beats who and by how much. The Ratings tend to be more accurate as the season progresses.

Average Line Played Against Power Ratings - Uses a similar concept as the Linear Regression Power Ratings, but are based on the lines used by the linesmakers in all of a team's games. The more that a team is favored, the higher its Rating. These Ratings are a good tool in evaluating and assessing how the linesmaker views each team and can be used as a guide in makeing lines on upcoming games based upon the lines that have been madein prior games.

Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings - Uses the concept described above for Average Line Played Against Power Ratings, but does so from the perspective of how a team has performed relative to the pointspread. For example, a team that is favored by 7 points and wins by 10 points has exceeded the line by 3 points while their opponent has fallen short by 3 points. Similarly a 4 point underdog that wins the game straight up by 10 points has exceeded the line by 14 points and their opponent has fallen short by 14. These Ratings can used a measurement of over-achievement and under-achievement by each team.

NOTES: Each team's raw Rating is adjusted for their individual Home Field Advantage (HFA) by adding one-half of the HFA to their raw rating to determine their Home Rating and subtracting one-half of the HFA from their raw Rating to determine their Road (away) Rating.