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Andy Iskoe´s NFL Power Rankings

 
LINEAR REGRESSION POWER RATINGS
Rank Team Rating HFA Home Away
1 Seattle 115.11 7.89 119.06 111.17
2 San Francisco 110.42 5.32 113.08 107.76
3 Denver 109.94 0.87 110.38 109.51
4 Carolina 108.71 1.09 109.25 108.16
5 New Orleans 108.57 2.96 110.05 107.09
6 Arizona 106.71 4.68 109.05 104.37
7 New England 106.34 0.58 106.63 106.05
8 Kansas City 105.70 1.44 106.42 104.98
9 Cincinnati 104.22 2.07 105.25 103.18
10 San Diego 103.39 1.27 104.03 102.76
11 Indianapolis 103.16 3.29 104.80 101.51
12 St. Louis 102.47 3.34 104.14 100.80
13 Philadelphia 102.15 1.51 102.91 101.40
14 Dallas 99.34 1.47 100.08 98.61
15 Tennessee 99.20 2.29 100.34 98.05
16 Miami 99.05 0.85 99.48 98.63
17 Detroit 98.40 3.04 99.92 96.88
18 Pittsburgh 97.90 3.04 99.42 96.38
19 Green Bay 97.49 3.97 99.47 95.50
20 Tampa Bay 97.47 2.26 98.60 96.34
21 Atlanta 97.39 3.01 98.90 95.89
22 Buffalo 96.66 3.33 98.33 95.00
23 Baltimore 96.25 3.95 98.23 94.28
24 Chicago 95.89 3.37 97.58 94.21
25 N.Y. Giants 94.72 2.15 95.79 93.64
26 N.Y. Jets 93.80 0.88 94.24 93.36
27 Minnesota 93.49 4.52 95.75 91.23
28 Houston 92.41 3.89 94.36 90.47
29 Cleveland 92.15 2.02 93.16 91.14
30 Oakland 91.84 -1.31 91.18 92.49
31 Washington 90.77 0.54 91.04 90.50
32 Jacksonville 88.87 0.56 89.15 88.59
NFL Average 100.00 2.50 101.25 98.75
 
AVERAGE LINE PLAYED AGAINST POWER RATINGS
Rank Team Rating HFA Home Away
1 Denver 108.42 0.87 108.85 107.98
2 Seattle 107.82 7.89 111.76 103.87
3 San Francisco 105.34 5.32 108.00 102.68
4 New Orleans 103.67 2.96 105.15 102.19
5 New England 103.62 0.58 103.91 103.33
6 Carolina 102.96 1.09 103.51 102.42
7 Philadelphia 102.73 1.51 103.48 101.97
8 Green Bay 102.45 3.97 104.44 100.47
9 Detroit 102.22 3.04 103.74 100.70
10 Cincinnati 102.18 2.07 103.21 101.14
11 Kansas City 100.96 1.44 101.68 100.24
12 Dallas 100.84 1.47 101.57 100.10
13 Chicago 100.39 3.37 102.07 98.70
14 Indianapolis 100.22 3.29 101.86 98.57
15 Arizona 99.96 4.68 102.30 97.62
16 Baltimore 99.89 3.95 101.86 97.91
17 N.Y. Giants 99.66 2.15 100.74 98.59
18 Pittsburgh 99.56 3.04 101.08 98.04
19 San Diego 99.55 1.27 100.19 98.92
20 Houston 99.48 3.89 101.43 97.54
21 Miami 98.95 0.85 99.37 98.52
22 Atlanta 98.87 3.01 100.37 97.36
23 Washington 98.60 0.54 98.87 98.33
24 Tennessee 98.11 2.29 99.26 96.97
25 St. Louis 97.29 3.34 98.96 95.62
26 Minnesota 97.21 4.52 99.47 94.95
27 Tampa Bay 97.06 2.26 98.19 95.93
28 Cleveland 96.51 2.02 97.52 95.50
29 N.Y. Jets 95.79 0.88 96.23 95.35
30 Buffalo 95.69 3.33 97.36 94.03
31 Oakland 93.79 -1.31 93.13 94.44
32 Jacksonville 90.22 0.56 90.50 89.94
NFL Average 100.00 2.50 101.25 98.75
 
AVERAGE RESULT VERSUS LINE POWER RATINGS
Rank Team Rating HFA Home Away
1 Seattle 107.29 7.89 111.24 103.35
2 Arizona 106.74 4.68 109.08 104.40
3 Carolina 105.75 1.09 106.29 105.20
4 St. Louis 105.18 3.34 106.85 103.51
5 San Francisco 105.07 5.32 107.73 102.41
6 New Orleans 104.90 2.96 106.38 103.42
7 Kansas City 104.74 1.44 105.46 104.02
8 San Diego 103.84 1.27 104.47 103.20
9 Indianapolis 102.94 3.29 104.58 101.29
10 New England 102.73 0.58 103.02 102.44
11 Cincinnati 102.04 2.07 103.07 101.00
12 Denver 101.53 0.87 101.96 101.09
13 Tennessee 101.08 2.29 102.23 99.94
14 Buffalo 100.97 3.33 102.64 99.31
15 Tampa Bay 100.41 2.26 101.54 99.28
16 Miami 100.10 0.85 100.53 99.68
17 Philadelphia 99.42 1.51 100.18 98.67
18 Jacksonville 98.65 0.56 98.93 98.37
19 Atlanta 98.53 3.01 100.03 97.02
20 Dallas 98.50 1.47 99.24 97.77
21 Pittsburgh 98.35 3.04 99.87 96.83
22 Oakland 98.05 -1.31 97.40 98.71
23 N.Y. Jets 98.01 0.88 98.45 97.57
24 Baltimore 96.36 3.95 98.34 94.39
25 Minnesota 96.28 4.52 98.54 94.02
26 Detroit 96.18 3.04 97.70 94.66
27 Cleveland 95.64 2.02 96.65 94.63
28 Chicago 95.51 3.37 97.19 93.82
29 N.Y. Giants 95.06 2.15 96.13 93.98
30 Green Bay 95.04 3.97 97.02 93.05
31 Houston 92.93 3.89 94.88 90.99
32 Washington 92.17 0.54 92.44 91.90
NFL Average 100.00 2.50 101.25 98.75
Updated Fri Feb 7 7:15 PM EDT

-- Explanation of Data Items --

Linear Regression Power Ratings - Based upon a Linear Regression analysis of points scored and allowed (i.e. Margin of Victories and Defeats). Simply explained, the above Ratings reflect differences based upon the following: "If Team A beats Team B by 7, and Team C beats Team D by 13, and Team C beats Team A by 2, etc., how much better is Team A than Team D?" Thus the above Ratings attempt to compare all teams based upon who beats who and by how much. The Ratings tend to be more accurate as the season progresses.

Average Line Played Against Power Ratings - Uses a similar concept as the Linear Regression Power Ratings, but are based on the lines used by the linesmakers in all of a team's games. The more that a team is favored, the higher its Rating. These Ratings are a good tool in evaluating and assessing how the linesmaker views each team and can be used as a guide in makeing lines on upcoming games based upon the lines that have been madein prior games.

Average Result Versus Line Power Ratings - Uses the concept described above for Average Line Played Against Power Ratings, but does so from the perspective of how a team has performed relative to the pointspread. For example, a team that is favored by 7 points and wins by 10 points has exceeded the line by 3 points while their opponent has fallen short by 3 points. Similarly a 4 point underdog that wins the game straight up by 10 points has exceeded the line by 14 points and their opponent has fallen short by 14. These Ratings can used a measurement of over-achievement and under-achievement by each team.

NOTES: Each team's raw Rating is adjusted for their individual Home Field Advantage (HFA) by adding one-half of the HFA to their raw rating to determine their Home Rating and subtracting one-half of the HFA from their raw Rating to determine their Road (away) Rating.