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NFC Preseason Report
Many handicappers have the opinion that the preseason games should be left alone and not bet on. I feel just the opposite. I feel the NFL preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a nice bankroll for the upcoming regular season, especially this year with only three new head coaches throwing their hat into the ring. If you do your homework, the preseason games offer the betting public a tremendous chance to make a ton of money.
This year as an example we have some teams on a 10-0, 11-1, and 15-2 preseason runs. It doesn’t get much better than that guys!!!
In the preseason, many head coaches have a track record of wanting to win and some just don’t care and are just preparing for the regular season. You can find many games this preseason where you can get a definite edge. Below I have put together a list of all 32 teams with a breakdown of things to look for this preseason that will give you that winning advantage.
With 29 returning head coaches this season look for these solid early trends to really hold up big time for this preseason.
OK so here are this year’s highly rated preseason money making trends for each team starting with the AFC.
Head Coach: Chan Gailey - 1st year
The Bills are a perfect 6-0 against the spread in Week 1 of the preseason over the past six years. This is developing into one of my strongest preseason trends. This year’s play is on Aug. 13 as the Bills will face the Redskins. However, in his two years in Dallas as head coach, Chan Gailey was a horrible 2-8 ATS.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm and Levi Brown (rookie-Troy)
Head Coach: Tony Sparano – 3rd year
With Bill Parcells taking over as executive VP for football operations of the Dolphins, and surrounding himself with all of his Dallas buddies including Tony Sparano you have to look for continued improvement from Miami in August as Parcells always tried to win in the preseason. Even when he took over a bad Cowboys team he immediately started winning in the preseason. Well this has turned an immediate profit as the Dolphins have won 7 of their 8 preseason games over the past two years including a perfect 4-0 last year.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Chad Henne, Chad Pennington, Pat White and Tyler Thigpen
New England Patriots
Head Coach: Bill Belichick – 11th year
Belichick and the Patriots used to be a big money maker in the preseason over the years. However since the Super Bowl rings have added up the preseason has just become a waste of time. Especially in the early preseason games as the Patriots have gone 1-5 ATS in their first two preseason games over the past three seasons.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Tom Brady, Brain Hoyer, Jeff Rowe and Zac Robinson (rookie-Oklahoma State)
Head Coach: Rex Ryan – 2nd year
When Rex Ryan took over as the Jets new head coach last season everyone thought he would bring over the Ravens’ tough defense. He sure did in the regular season; however in the preseason Ryan cared less about showing his defense off as the ‘over’ was a perfect 4-0. So let’s look for more of the same this year with the ‘over’ being the solid play in every Jets preseason game.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Mark Sanchez, Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge and Kevin O’Connell
Head Coach: John Harbaugh – 3rd year
The Ravens in the past five preseason’s have played some really low-scoring games with the ‘under’ producing an eye-opening 14-5 ledger. This trend has continued with new head coach John Harbaugh, who plays it close to the vest. The Ravens watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 in his first two years as head coach.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Joe Flacco, Troy Smith, John Beck
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis – 8th year
Even though the Bengals are just a .500 team in the preseason over the past few years, boy does Cincinnati finish strong in the preseason winning the past four years against the Colts in their final preseason tune up including a blowout win (38-7) against Indianapolis last season. This year’s play is again against the Colts on the road on Sept. 2. These games against the Colts are not even close as the Bengals have outscored them by a combined 99–23 over the past four years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Carson Palmer, J.T. O’Sullivan and Jordan Palmer
Head Coach: Eric Mangini – 2nd year
In his first year as the Browns head coach, Eric Mangini was just a .500 coach going 2-2. However the Browns and Bears in their final preseason game each year has seen the ‘under’ be the right side in five of the last six encounters. Watch this matchup once again this year on Sept. 2.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jake Delhomme, Seneca Wallace, Colt McCoy (rookie-Texas), and Brett Ratliff
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin – 4th year
This is one of my strongest preseason trends to watch for as the Steelers have seen the ‘under’ go an amazing 15-2 over the past four years in the preseason. Last year was no different as Pittsburgh saw all four of their preseason games stay way ‘under’ the total which has added to a perfect 6-0 run with the ‘under’ over the past two years.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon, and Byron Leftwich
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak – 5th year
As head coach of the Texans over the past four seasons Gary Kubiak has shown a small profit going 9-7 SU. However where the real money can be made on the Texans in the preseason is on the total as we have seen the ‘over’ go 9-3 over the past four seasons under Kubiak.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Schaub, Dan Orlovsky, John David Booty
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell – 2nd year
With Jim Caldwell taking over as head coach, and with the Colts having a new offensive coordinator, OL coach, and defensive coordinator, Indianapolis went 1-3 ATS last year in the preseason. One trend we still have to watch with Indianapolis is how poorly they play in their last preseason game of the year going 1-7 ATS the last eight years. This year the Colts finish out the preseason as they host the Bengals once again on Sept. 2nd.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Peyton Manning, Curtis Painter, Tom Brandstater and Tim Hiller (rookie-Western Michigan)
Head Coach: Jack Del Rio – 8th year
The Jaguars are sure known for their defense in the regular season. However head coach Jack Del Rio has pulled in the reins during the last five preseason slates, allowing the Jaguars to open things up offensively as they work on improving their passing game. As a result the ‘over’ has gone 14-6 (70%). Look for this trend to again be a money maker this year as the oddsmakers continue to post low totals on all of the Jacksonville preseason games. Plus, while most teams just want to go thru the motions in their final preseason game, the Jaguars are just the opposite as they have won their last preseason game the last four years winning two of them outright as a ‘dog.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: David Garrard, Luke McCown and Trevor Harris (rookie-Edinboro)
Head Coach: Jeff Fisher – 16th year
A strong preseason trend has developed for head coach Jeff Fischer over the past five years as he has sure opened things up offensively in the Titans last preseason game of the year seeing 222 points scored in these games. This year’s last preseason game is against the Saints on Sept. 2nd.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Chris Simms, and Rusty Smith (rookie-Florida Atlantic)
Head Coach: Josh McDaniels – 2nd year
Bill Belichick disciple Josh McDaniels took over as the Broncos new head coach last season. McDaniels went 2-2 in both sides and totals in the preseason. However what really still stands out is the Broncos willingness to dominate in their final preseason game of the year going 9-1 ATS in their last 10 with their only loss coming back in ‘04.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Kyle Orton, Brady Quinn, Tim Tebow (rookie-Florida)
Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach: Todd Haley – 2nd year
Even with the Parcells/Belichick disciples Scott Pioli taking over as GM, and Todd Haley taking over as head coach The Chiefs continued their losing ways in the preseason making then now an unbelievable 1-11 ATS over the past three years. Until we see a major turnaround will have to continue to fade the Chiefs in this spot.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Matt Cassel, Brodie Croyle, Matt Gutierrez, Tyler Palko
Head Coach: Tom Cable – 3rd year
Two solid preseason trends continued as Tom Cable took over as the Oakland head coach last season. The Raiders have gone a perfect 4-0 in their first preseason game over the past four years, and are just as bad in their final game going a money making 0-4 ATS with four outright losses. So let’s look for both of these scenarios to continue this season.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Jason Campbell, Charlie Frye, Bruce Gradkowski, and Kyle Boller
San Diego Chargers
Head Coach: Norv Turner – 3rd year
This will be Norv Turner’s fourth year as head coach of the Chargers. In Turner’s last head coaching job with the Raiders back in 2004 and 2005, a solid trend can be taken away from it that can give us an edge for the Chargers preseason games. First of all in both of his dress rehearsal games in Oakland the Raiders went 0-2 against the spread, this trend has continued as Turner has not covered his dress rehearsal game the first three years in San Diego making him a perfect 0-5 ATS. So let’s watch for when the Chargers play a Saints team on Aug. 27 this year that have won their dress rehearsal game the past three years by a combined 88-14.
Probable preseason quarterback rotations: Phillip Rivers, Billy Volek, and Jonathan Crompton (rookie-Tennessee)