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AFC East Preview
July 16, 2012
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The NFL season is sneaking up on us rather quickly with training camp a few weeks ago. We'll take a look at all eight divisions, starting with the AFC East. This division has been owned by the Patriots over the years, as Bill Belichick's club has claimed nine of the last 10 AFC East titles (Dolphins in '08 the only other team to win it). New England came up three points short in the Super Bowl against the Giants, but there's no reason to think the Pats will fail to get to the postseason once again.
The bigger questions that linger within the AFC East are whether the Jets can bounce back from a mediocre season and if Miami and Buffalo can turn into threats this season. The Dolphins are undecided at the starting quarterback position between veteran David Garrard, incumbent Matt Moore, and rookie Ryan Tannehill. The Bills look to dig out of the cellar after a promising start in 2011, while offseason acquisition Mario Williams hopes to beef up a Buffalo defense that allowed an average of 371 yards and 27 points a game.
The Jets picked up the second-biggest storyline as far as a player goes with Tim Tebow heading to New York from Denver. Tebow's mechanics and game can be questioned, but the former Broncos' quarterback led Denver to a division title and a playoff victory over Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round. For betting purposes, the Broncos began 6-1 ATS before stumbling to a 1-5 ATS finish in Tebow's starts. However, Mark Sanchez put together a dreadful 6-10 ATS record as starting quarterback of the Jets last season, including an 0-5 ATS ledger against playoff teams.
We polled several other VegasInsider.com handicappers with their thoughts on the AFC East and if the Patriots can be knocked off the mountain. Brian Edwards believes Bill Belichick's club will come out on top once again in 2012, "Barring a rash of injuries, New England might be favored in every game it plays this season. A potential exception is Week 3 at Baltimore, but the two other toughest non-division games come at home in December against teams that aren't from cold-weather cities (49ers and Texans). I think Tom Brady and Company win the division rather comfortably."
Micah Roberts feels that Buffalo is an undervalued team in this division, "I think the Bills have the talent in place to make a run for the playoffs, but it all hinges on the results of their first two games to kick off the year: vs. Washington in Week 1 and at Minnesota in Week 2. And then hope that momentum carries over into at least a split against Pittsburgh and Detroit."
A slow start for the Bills will no doubt kill their season 'over' play according to Roberts, "The big problem, obviously, will be if starting 1-3. Momentum is everything and starting successful, which I think they will, will be the key to the Bills season. I like the Bills to get OVER 7.5 wins quite easily, which makes it easy deciding on what the other teams will do."
The Dolphins play only one team at home (New England - Week 13) that made the playoffs last season, while drawing the Raiders, Rams, Titans, Seahawks, and Jaguars in South Florida. Miami has an excellent opportunity to finish with 'over' 7 ½ wins, as the Fins lost four games by three points or less last season, while putting together a 6-10 mark. From an ATS perspective, Miami cashed nine of its final 10 games in 2011, while hitting the 'under' in 12 of the last 15 contests. However, it's tough to predict this team's win total when either Garrard, Moore, or Tannehill can be the quarterback this season.
New York will be tested out of the gate, with consecutive road contests at Pittsburgh and Miami (Week 2/3), while hosting division champs San Francisco and Houston in Weeks 4 and 5. The back-end of the schedule for Rex Ryan's squad eases up with only one playoff team from last season (Patriots on Thanksgiving) following a bye in Week 9.
The Patriots don't exactly have an easy road to start the season since the defending AFC Champions will be away from Foxboro in five of its first eight games. Granted the only tough away test is at Baltimore in Week 3, the Pats have to travel to Seattle in Week 6, while heading to London two weeks later to face the Rams. After the bye week in Week 9, the Pats won't leave the Eastern Time Zone the rest of the regular season with road games at the Jets, Dolphins, and Jaguars.
Below is our handicapper predictions for the AFC East:
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Division Winner |
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Surprise Team |
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Best Total |
OVER 8 ½ |
OVER 7 ½ |
OVER 7 ½ |
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You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.
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