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AFC West Preview
August 3, 2012
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The expectations in were huge for San Diego to win the AFC West in 2011, but somehow the Chargers failed to make the playoffs. Also, the expectations for the Broncos were to finish close to the bottom of the division. However, Tim Tebow led Denver to an AFC West title and a Wild Card victory over Pittsburgh. Tebow is off to New York, but the onus is still on the Mile High City with the arrival of a future Hall-of-Famer under center.
The effect of not having Peyton Manning in the Indianapolis offense last season was obviously evident as the Colts managed just two victories. Now with the former MVP in Denver, the Broncos are favored to repeat following an 8-8 campaign last season. John Fox's club was listed in the 'chalk' role five times in 2011, while failing to cover each time when laying points. A majority of the pointspread success came as a road underdog, as the Broncos cashed six of eight times, but don't look for that many opportunities this season with Manning at the helm.
San Diego finished shy of the postseason for the second straight year, but Norv Turner's team sure didn't help out backers. The Lightning Bolts cashed just six times, while going through a six-game stretch of not covering from October through November. San Diego managed to finish the season at 4-1 ATS the final five weeks, as Philip Rivers led the Bolts to at least 34 points in each victory. The schedule is at its easiest the first four weeks (at Oakland, Tennessee, Atlanta, and at Kansas City), but the Chargers have to visit the Saints, Broncos, Steelers, and Jets after September.
For fans that may have missed it, the Raiders put together consecutive 8-8 seasons, while bringing in Carson Palmer from Cincinnati. Oakland shot out of the gate to a 7-4 start, but stumbled in the end by winning just one of its final five contests. The Silver and Black impressed as a road underdog by compiling a 6-2 ATS mark, while putting together an incredible 15-4 ATS record off a non-cover since October 2009.
The biggest news the Chiefs made last season was ending Green Bay's run at an undefeated regular season by upsetting the Packers as 12-point home underdogs. Besides that triumph, there wasn't much to get excited about in Kansas City as Todd Haley was fired with three games remaining. At one point, the Chiefs actually owned a decent 4-3 record after seven games, but a four-game losing streak in which they scored 25 points doomed any playoff hopes. The Chiefs cashed in all four opportunities as a home underdog, while posting an 0-4 ATS mark when laying points at Arrowhead Stadium.
Several VegasInsider.com handicappers weighed in on the AFC West race, which will circulate around Manning's Broncos. Micah Roberts isn't going to bite on Denver's 8 ½ win total, "If Manning isn't 100% healthy, the drop off to the No. 2 may be the steepest fall in the league with Caleb Hanie. Denver still has one of the worst secondaries in the league despite an aging Champ Bailey still getting the job done. I feel betting Denver OVER is a major risk because of Manning's neck, but again at the same time, you can't handicap injuries."
Bruce Marshall says to keep an eye on the Chargers, for better or worse, "The biggest storyline in the AFC West outside of Denver will be in San Diego. We'll never know if more dynamic leadership over the past five seasons would have reaped more than the Chargers have delivered since 2007, but it is a fair question to ask."
"Only once in the 'Norv years' have the Chargers really hit their stride, and that was in 2009 when they wasted their best chance at the Super Bowl with a flat playoff effort vs. the beatable Jets and their rookie QB. Now, Rivers seems to be regressing (as his 20 interceptions last year would indicate), top downfield target Vincent Jackson has left via free agency, and the defense is full of holes that need to be plugged after conceding an NFL-worst 49% conversions on third downs last season," Marshall explains.
The AFC West draws the AFC North and NFC South this season, which may yield a 10-win club to claim this division, unlike the 2011 campaign when each squad won between seven and eight games.
Below is our handicapper predictions for the AFC West:
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Division Winner |
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Surprise Team |
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Best Total |
OVER 8 ½ |
UNDER 7 |
UNDER 8 |
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You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.
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