User ID
Password
  Forgot User ID
or Register Today!
VegasInsider.com
Follow Us on Facebook Follow Us on Twitter Follow Us on Google+ VI Mobile Scores and Betting Odds
Home
NBA
NHL
MLB
NCAA FB
NCAA BK
Golf
Auto Racing
Horses
More
Betting Tools

 
Week 4 Rewind

New Sportsbook.ag customers: Make your 1st bet, get your 2nd bet free, 100%, winnings paid in cash.
Join Now

Already have an account? Click here to view new Exclusive Rewards!

Editor's Note: The SportsBoss joined the VegasInsider.com handicapping stable this football season and he hasn't disappointed with a 63% record in the NFL. Start cashing tickets with his discounted season package. Click to win!

Interesting, another week of action, and my preface to last week's column still remains accurate: After four weeks of action only three teams remain unbeaten -Houston, Atlanta and Arizona; while a pair are winless - New Orleans and Cleveland. Yes, in Week 4, the unbeaten squads won again, two in dramatic fashion, while the winless squads both lost again - and both of those were one score games as well. What is new, and a positive, is the officials signed an agreement to get back on the field, which took place this past weekend - that is surely a ton of good news. Let's jump right into the numbers…

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80).

Performance Ratings
Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended
Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS
4 HOU 52.4 4 50.1 2 102.5 1 21
3 SF 47.9 7 49.0 5 96.9 2 17
3 PHI 45.0 12 51.0 1 96.0 3 23
2 DEN 50.5 5 45.1 8 95.6 4 9
2 NE 57.5 1 37.6 17 95.1 5 24
1 MIA 39.6 20 50.0 3 89.6 6 25
3 BAL 49.8 6 39.6 13 89.4 7 11
4 ATL 52.9 3 34.1 22 87.0 8 15
3 CHI 37.5 22 49.5 4 87.0 8 26
2 GB 42.4 16 44.4 9 86.8 10 10
3 MIN 42.3 17 43.6 11 85.9 11 27
2 WAS 55.3 2 29.6 27 84.9 12 32
3 SD 42.8 15 41.6 12 84.4 13 31
2 SEA 35.9 24 48.5 6 84.4 13 19
1 PIT 46.3 9 36.3 20 82.7 15 12
2 NYG 45.8 10 36.6 19 82.4 16 22
1 KC 44.9 13 37.4 18 82.3 17 20
2 DAL 37.8 21 44.1 10 81.9 18 14
1 DET 41.4 18 39.1 14 80.5 19 13
3 CIN 45.6 11 33.5 23 79.1 20 28
2 BUF 47.0 8 30.8 26 77.8 21 30
4 ARI 30.4 30 45.9 7 76.3 22 4
2 STL 34.1 26 38.0 16 72.1 23 8
1 CAR 43.9 14 27.9 29 71.8 24 29
1 IND 37.5 22 33.3 24 70.8 25 2
1 TB 31.6 28 39.0 15 70.6 26 19
1 JAC 34.4 25 29.3 28 63.6 27 7
0 CLE 27.3 32 35.4 21 62.6 28 4
2 NYJ 29.8 31 32.3 25 62.0 29 7
0 NO 40.3 19 21.5 31 61.8 30 16
1 TEN 34.1 26 21.1 32 55.3 31 1
1 OAK 31.4 29 23.0 30 54.4 32 5

As promised last week we are now showing our "blended SOS" rating for each team, which is a weighted average of opponent's performance ratings and opponent's record. Using that piece of information along with where team's actually stack up in the ratings can assist in determining true performance - if we look at Denver, they check in #4 in the performance ratings this week, only trailing New England by 0.4 rating points per game; if we then adjust for SOS, where Denver is #9 while New England is #23, thru the first four weeks of the season Denver has actually performed better than New England has. I continue to work on a formula where that information can be used to show an SOS adjusted performance rating.

Biggest movers from last week (+/- 4 or more spots):

Risers: DEN +15 (#19 to #4), WAS +8 (#20 to #12), SF/CHI/GB/CIN +4

Decliners: BUF -13 (#8 to #21), NYG -11 (#5 to #16), DAL -8 (#10 to #18), ATL/TB/NYJ -4

Denver played the best game of the season thus far, posting a 137 score in their 37-6 rout of rival OAK. The Broncos are definitely a team to keep an eye on because as mentioned last week, their two losses came to a pair of the undefeated squads, and they have now outplayed 3 of 4 opponents including Week 2's loss at Atlanta (21-27).

Houston remained at the top of the ratings, the only team to average triple digits per game on the season. With the SOS remaining for the Texans (#21 opponents record, #24 opponents performance ratings) they certainly appear to be a very likely candidate to finish at the top of the ratings come the end of the season.

Advertisement
At #2 is San Francisco, giving us a 1-2 punch of HOU-SF, which makes sense as most people believe those two are the cream of the NFL crop at this point. Philadelphia remains in the Top 3 buoyed by a strong defense that is rated #1 in the NFL.

A pair of surprise teams at #11/#12 in Minnesota and Washington continue playing well - but keep an eye on their SOS as it currently sits among the easiest of the teams rated around and above them, and both teams are well within the top ten of remaining SOS in both opponents record and opponents performance ratings - we could see a correction coming very soon.

Arizona, easily the lowest rated of the trio of undefeated teams, actually slipped a spot to #22 after being badly outplayed vs. Miami on Sunday to the tune of 96-65; it led to their first ATS loss of the season, even with the line dropping some 2.5-3 points during the week - more could be right around the corner, especially considering their remaining SOS is rated #2 based on opponents record, and #6 based on opponents performance ratings.

Carolina slid up from #27 to #24 after a gut wrenching loss to ATL on Sunday, but a closer look at their performance ratings tells a story of concern - their season to date SOS of #29 is easily the most favorable schedule of the bottom 11 teams in the ratings. Coming into the season I talked about being bullish on the Panthers this season, believing their offense would remain among the best in the league, and their defense would improve because of less injuries - their defense has not performed well at all, rating #29 in the league so far, including #31 vs. the rush.

Lastly, we have a new team bringing up the rear, Oakland. As mentioned above they were hammered in Denver Sunday, leaving them alone at the bottom with an average performance rating of just 54.4/gm. Things are not going well in Oakland, which has really been the story for the better part of the last decade.

As far as conference and divisional breakdowns, while last week the NFC had 4 of the top 6 spots, now the AFC holds down 5 of the top 7, following the drop backs of the Falcons and Giants. On the flip side 6 of the bottom 8 teams are also from the AFC - which means there are some very good teams, but also some very bad ones in the AFC - and we can see that as the playoff picture continues to shape up (discussed below). The NFC East has the highest rated worst team with Dallas checking in at #18, while the NFC North is just behind with Detroit at #19.

Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk4. As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.

AFC East Wins Loss
NE 9.11 6.89
NYJ 7.95 8.05
BUF 7.45 8.55
MIA 7.35 8.65
NFC East Wins Loss
PHI 10.05 5.96
DAL 8.24 7.76
NYG 8.13 7.87
WAS 7.26 8.74
AFC North Wins Loss
BAL 9.81 6.19
CIN 8.62 7.38
PIT 8.49 7.52
CLE 4.16 11.84
NFC North Wins Loss
GB 9.18 6.82
CHI 8.91 7.09
MIN 8.46 7.55
DET 7.11 8.89
AFC South Wins Loss
HOU 13.06 2.94
IND 6.45 9.56
JAC 5.28 10.72
TEN 5.22 10.78
NFC South Wins Loss
ATL 11.28 4.72
CAR 7.08 8.92
TB 5.81 10.19
NO 5.23 10.77
AFC West Wins Loss
SD 9.81 6.19
DEN 9.40 6.60
KC 6.23 9.77
OAK 5.25 10.75
NFC West Wins Loss
SF 11.16 4.85
ARI 9.50 6.50
SEA 8.41 7.59
STL 6.57 9.43

AFC Playoffs
#1 HOU
#2 BAL
#3 SD vs. #6 CIN
#4 NE vs. #5 DEN

NFC Playoffs
#1 ATL
#2 SF
#3 PHI vs. #6 CHI
#4 GB vs. #5 AR

Following Week 4 games I have adjusted the power ratings for 6 teams, 3 up and 3 down as I always keep the proper balance within my ratings. After updating for last week's action, and the power rating changes just mentioned, there are just two teams that moved up or down 1 projected win:

DOWN:

New York Jets (1.2) Oakland (1.2)

As far as changes to my playoff projections, the AFC has one new playoff team, Cincinnati, whom replaced the New York Jets, whom just got in last week. Most of the seeds also stayed static - the only differences were related to the change of teams in prior point. As we can see however, the AFC playoff picture appears to be taking shape, even this early in the season. It looks like there are 7 teams that will be in the mix for 6 spots - remember how accurate this exercise has been over the years, very few times are there big time surprises, especially once we get about half way into the season.

In the NFC we also only saw one team change, and it was directly driven by the result of MNF with Chicago dispatching Dallas and sliding up into the #6 and final spot. The NFC certainly has a little more flexibility, and teams that will battle it out for a playoff spot as the season continues - but one thing is for sure, the NFC South, a division many looked at as the best in football heading into the season, really has its work cut out for it outside Atlanta if they want to make a run to the playoffs.

In the race for the 1st pick in the 2013 NFL draft the Browns remained ahead of the Titans & Jaguars - as it currently stands, Cleveland has about a 1.5-1.75 calibrated games edge on their closest chasers.

Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.

Power Rankings - Week 4
Rank Team
1 Houston
2 San Francisco
3 New England
4 Atlanta
5 Denver
6 Baltimore
7 Green Bay
8 Philadelphia
9 San Diego
10 Pittsburgh
11 Seattle
12 New York Giants
13 Dallas
14 Chicago
15 Arizona
16 Carolina
17 New York Jets
18 Detroit
18 Miami
20 New Orleans
21 Minnesota
22 Washington
23 Cincinnati
24 Buffalo
25 St. Louis
26 Indianapolis
27 Tampa Bay
27 Kansas City
29 Oakland
30 Tennessee
30 Jacksonville
32 Cleveland

  
HEADLINES
Lawrence: Handicapping Win Totals
Stoffo: Preseason Report - Coaches
Rogers: Home 'Dog Breakdown
Stoffo: Preseason Report - AFC
Stoffo: Preseason Report - NFC
Fisher: 2015 Playoff Surprises
SportsBoss: Turnover Analysis
Cards give DB Peterson $70M extension
Guy's long wait for HOF comes to end
MORE HEADLINES
 
Why Buy Picks From VegasInsider.com
NFL Pro Football Handicapper Sports Picks Records
NFL Pro Football Expert Sports Picks-
2013 NFL SEASON PICK RECORDS
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
Joe Nelson + 1340
Chip Chirimbes + 1286
The Gold Sheet + 1262
Last Week's Leaders
Handicapper Money
No Games Last Week  
   
   
Percentage Leaders
Handicapper Pct
Joe Nelson 60 %
The SportsBoss 59 %
The Gold Sheet 59 %
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Joe Nelson + 805
The Gold Sheet + 713
Scott Pritchard + 615
Over-Under Leaders
Handicapper Money
Dave Cokin + 400
Joe Williams + 324
Tony Stoffo + 203
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
ASA + 670
The SportsBoss + 385
Brian Edwards + 337
MORE PICK RECORDS
  
corner graphic
With a VI Gold Membership, you can SAVE 10% off a Live Odds subscription, SAVE 20% off Daily Pick packages, and receive access to up to 1,000 Member Plays each month!