Las Vegas Betting Notes
October 8, 2012
By Micah Roberts
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Books earn small win
One week after bettors gained a little traction in the sports books, things went back to normal as the books had a winning weekend. It wasn’t a big win -- some books reported a push for Saturday and Sunday, but the others reported small wins with the bulk of the win stemming from UCLA getting whacked Saturday night at Cal and the Packers losing outright to the Colts on Sunday.
College football favorites went 27-22 against-the spread on Saturday which is usually a good ratio for the bettors, but believe or not, with all the big games on Saturday, the most important win on the day for the sports books was Cal’s 43-17 win over UCLA as a 2 ½-point underdog.
By being one of the final games of the day to kick off, it had a larger shelf-life than the other big games. It may not have been the most wagered upon game, but it definitely had the most risk attached to it once all the days other events were posted. UCLA was a very popular play with public money, while Cal found some sharp buy taking the points. As is the case in most of the big games, the books were rooting for the sharps.
Because the game was one of the final kickoffs of the day, it also attracted all the ‘get-back’ money from bettors chasing their losses and others that were trying to double up on their win from the day.
On Sunday, there were only six early NFL games which forced plays on teams the public might not have sided with in other weeks where we have eight or nine choices on early kickoffs. The Bengals losing outright at home as a three-point favorite to the Dolphins was bad for the bettors. The Chiefs getting the back-door cover in a 9-6 loss at home to the Ravens killed some more parlays, as did the Steelers failing to cover four points in their 16-14 home win over the Eagles.
But the biggest blow on the day was the Packers losing outright to the Colts as seven-point favorites. Not only did the Packers lose on the spread, but their loss wiped out the most popular teaser and money-line parlay bets of the day.
By the time the afternoon games rolled around, most everyone was busted and had nothing live, which helped the books avoid what could have been a disaster with four of the five late favorite covering. In three of the games, the favorite to the OVER -- a public staple -- got there.
The Broncos-Patriots had the most wagers on the day, but it was great two-way action. The Broncos are a public team, as are the Patriots. Had the Patriots been laying seven against anyone else and the 31-21 result came in, the books would have got torn apart. But instead, most sports book directors were able to watch the game with little rooting interest for either side because the game was so balanced.
However, bettors reloaded for the late game and sided with the Saints and OVER, a popular two-team parlay that paid out 13-to-5.
“We gave back almost everything we won on the first 11 games of the day in that one late game,” said Wynn sports book director Johnny Avello. “That’s the position were usually in weekly with these big isolated night games.“
Wynn Early Numbers
Twelve college football games moved at least three points after the Wynn sports book opened their numbers Sunday afternoon. The Wynn posts the first numbers in the world at 6 p.m. (EST) and get some interesting action because bettors don’t have anything to fall back on as a reference other then their own rating system. There are no other lines anywhere to reference. It’s just one on one, which brings back old memories from a Las Vegas we used to know.
One of the 12 games that had large moves was the biggest game of the weekend with South Carolina money pushing LSU from a six-point favorite down to -3.
“I understand that South Carolina is a very good football team, possibly the second best in the SEC, but my thinking had a lot to do with LSU coming off a loss, being at home, and being very angry about that loss. South Carolina has played only two road games this season and LSU hasn’t lost at home the past two seasons.”
Avello did drop his rating on LSU a couple points after their 14-6 loss at Florida, but says part of the problem with LSU losing that game is that they played a weak early schedule and weren’t ready for a big game.
In LSU’s first two SEC games this season -- both on the road, they beat Auburn, 12-10 and lost to Florida. Their best home win of the season was on September 8, a 41-3 win over Washington. Their worst home win was September 29 against Towson where they won, 38-22. They also struggled at home against Idaho, even though the 63-14 score doesn’t indicate a struggle.
LVH NBA Season win totals
We didn’t get the chance to see win totals posted in the NBA last season because of the lockout, but they’re up now getting some pretty good action.
The Heat and Thunder were posted last Tuesday with highest totals at 60.5 win each, but the team that has been getting most of the attention has been the Lakers. The new-look Lakers opened with a total of 59.5 wins, but were bet down to 58.5.
Here's a look at the updated season win totals at the LVH:
2012-13 NBA REGULAR SEASON WINS
** ALL SIDES ARE -110 **
** TEAMS MUST PLAY 82 REGULAR SEASON GAMES FOR ACTION **
** WAGERS DO NOT INCLUDE POST-SEASON GAMES **
10-3 L13 Picks, 74% +1,183 TY
3-0 L3 G-Plays, 7-1 L8 Picks
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