Week 6 Tips
October 11, 2012
By Kevin Rogers
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The home underdogs dominated earlier this season against the spread, but an under-the-radar bet that has turned profit is to fade short home favorites. By going against home 'chalk' of four points or less, a record of 16-6 ATS was produced, as six teams are in this situation heading into Week 6. We'll highlight the five day contests, including three below .500 teams that can be dubbed as questionable favorites.
Colts at Jets (-3 ½, 43) - 1:00 PM EST
This isn't exactly Super Bowl III reincarnated, as New York closes out a three-game homestand looking for a victory. The Jets cashed as 10-point home underdogs in Monday's 23-17 loss to the unbeaten Texans, but New York is a beat-up football team with questions at quarterback. The Colts have no questions regarding their most important position, as top pick Andrew Luck helped spear-head a late rally to stun the Packers last Sunday, pushing Indianapolis to 2-2 SU/ATS.
Indianapolis hits the road for the first time since getting drubbed at Chicago in Week 1, as the Colts have covered each of their last two games in the underdog role against the Vikings and Packers. The Jets have thrived when laying points this season, cashing in divisional victories over the Bills and Dolphins, while Rex Ryan's team needs to grab this game before heading to New England next week. Mark Sanchez owns a 2-1 record in his career against the Colts, including the playoff victory at Lucas Oil Stadium in January 2011.
Chiefs at Buccaneers (-4, 40) - 1:00 PM EST
The Tampa/St. Petersburg market will be missing this blacked out game locally, which could be a good thing. Matt Cassel will not start at quarterback for Kansas City, as former Notre Dame standout Brady Quinn will make his first start since 2009 as a member of the Browns. The Bucs are fresh off the bye week, but Greg Schiano's club has dropped three straight games since beating the Panthers in the opening week of the season.
Since Jon Gruden's departure as head coach, Tampa Bay has put together a dreadful 6-17-1 ATS at Raymond James Stadium the last three-plus seasons. The latest loss came against the Redskins in Week 4 as Washington slipped past Tampa Bay, 24-22, as the Bucs failed to cover as 1 ½-point favorites. Kansas City owns a solid 7-3 ATS record away from Arrowhead Stadium since December 2010, including an outright victory at New Orleans in Week 3 as nine-point underdogs.
Cowboys at Ravens (-3 ½, 44) - 1:00 PM EST
Baltimore heads to Houston for a potential AFC Championship preview next week, but the Ravens need to take care of business against the rested Cowboys this Sunday. Dallas looks to bounce back after getting routed at home by Chicago in Week 4, while Tony Romo threw five interceptions in the loss as three-point favorites. However, the Cowboys' most impressive victory this season came as a road underdog in the opener over the Giants, 24-17.
The Cowboys have dominated following the bye week over the last seven seasons by compiling a 6-1 ATS mark, as the only loss came as seven-point 'chalk' against the Titans at home in 2010. Dallas is 4-0 ATS the previous four road contests against AFC opponents, including covers in close losses to the Jets and Patriots last season. Each of Baltimore's last three victories have come by seven points or less, while putting together two less than inspiring efforts in wins over the Browns and Chiefs, both non-covers. Since the team moved from Cleveland to Baltimore in 1996, the Ravens have won and cashed in all three meetings with the Cowboys.
Lions at Eagles (-4, 47 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Detroit returns from the bye after two disappointing losses as a favorite to Tennessee and Minnesota, as the Lions allowed four special teams touchdowns in those defeats. Jim Schwartz's squad heads to Philadelphia this week to battle an Eagles' team that has been involved in four games decided by two points or less (3-1). The Eagles try to rebound after falling short in a 16-14 loss at Pittsburgh, but Philadelphia cashed for the second straight game following an 0-3 ATS start.
The Lions are receiving points for just the second time this season, as Detroit will attempt to improve on 3-8 ATS record away from Ford Field since the start of 2011. Each of the last two meetings between these teams has finished 'over' the total, including a 35-32 victory by the Eagles in Detroit two seasons ago as a 6 ½-point favorite. In Philadelphia's previous nine home games as a touchdown favorite or less, Andy Reid's club has cashed six times, including three of the last four since December 2010.
Rams at Dolphins (-3 ½, 37 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
After this game, either Miami will sit at .500 through six games or St. Louis will own a 4-2 record. Regardless, Jeff Fisher returns to the city in which he stiffed in order to take the Rams' head coaching job this past offseason. St. Louis is fresh off back-to-back home division wins over Seattle and Arizona, but the Rams will be without top receiver Danny Amendola, who broke his collarbone against the Cardinals.
The Dolphins are favored for the first time this season, while seeking consecutive victories after a solid road triumph at Cincinnati last week. Following a 3-13 ATS run from 2008 through November 2011 as a home favorite, the Dolphins managed to cover four of their last five games at Sun Life Stadium in this role. Miami looks to improve on a 1-8 ATS record at home since 2007 against NFC opponents, with the lone victory coming over Washington last season.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org
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