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NFL Rewind - Week 9

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Nine weeks down, most teams have played eight games (eight have played nine and those teams will be split into 4's and have bye weeks over next two) - so close to the exact halfway point. This week I will not be updating any discussion below - I will be writing at least one additional NFL article this week discussing a new topic - but I still wanted to provide the updated numbers from all the charts I show below.

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80).

Performance Ratings
Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended
Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS
7 HOU 50.9 3 49.3 3 100.2 1 24
6 SF 48.0 7 50.6 2 98.6 2 11
5 DEN 52.8 2 45.2 5 97.9 3 7
5 SEA 46.6 8 50.8 1 97.4 4 12
5 PIT 49.6 5 45.1 6 94.8 5 25
5 NE 57.1 1 34.6 22 91.6 6 22
7 CHI 41.6 18 49.3 4 90.9 7 30
6 GB 44.6 11 44.7 8 89.3 8 2 0
4 TB 45.1 10 39.3 13 84.4 9 27
8 ATL 48.8 6 35.5 20 84.3 10 15
4 DET 45.4 9 38.6 15 84.1 11 16
4 SD 42.3 15 41.7 10 84.0 12 32
3 DAL 41.8 17 41.5 11 83.3 13 3
3 PHI 42.6 13 39.6 12 82.3 14 14
3 WAS 50.4 4 30.2 28 80.7 15 26
6 NYG 43.3 12 36.1 18 79.4 16 13
4 MIA 35.9 27 43.5 9 79.4 16 30
6 BAL 42.6 13 34.3 24 76.9 18 19
1 KC 40.4 21 36.4 17 76.8 19 18
5 MIN 39.6 23 37.1 16 76.6 20 23
2 CAR 40.3 22 35.8 19 76.1 21 4
5 IND 41.2 20 33.1 27 74.3 22 31
4 ARI 28.9 31 44.8 7 73.8 23 10
3 NYJ 34.9 28 38.8 14 73.7 24 2
3 CIN 38.9 24 34.6 22 73.4 25 21
3 OAK 36.9 26 34.9 21 71.8 26 9
3 BUF 41.9 16 27.9 30 69.9 27 18
3 STL 33.4 29 33.2 26 66.6 28 1
2 CLE 30.9 30 34.2 25 65.2 29 30
3 NO 41.6 18 22.1 32 63.7 30 8
3 TEN 37.8 25 23.1 31 60.9 31 5
1 JAC 28.7 32 29.9 29 58.6 32 6

Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk9. As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.

AFC East Wins Loss
NE 9.92 6.08
MIA 7.94 8.06
NYJ 6.80 9.20
BUF 6.65 9.36
NFC East Wins Loss
NYG 9.62 6.38
PHI 7.39 8.61
DAL 7.21 8.79
WAS 6.28 9.72
AFC North Wins Loss
PIT 10.90 5.10
BAL 9.33 6.67
CIN 6.28 9.72
CLE 4.34 11.66
NFC North Wins Loss
CHI 10.77 5.23
GB 10.21 5.79
DET 8.33 7.67
MIN 7.74 8.26
AFC South Wins Loss
HOU 13.05 2.96
IND 7.98 8.02
TEN 5.51 10.49
JAC 4.00 12.01
NFC South Wins Loss
ATL 12.37 3.63
TB 7.55 8.45
NO 6.05 9.95
CAR 5.63 10.37
AFC West Wins Loss
DEN 11.26 4.74
SD 7.54 8.46
OAK 6.88 9.12
KC 4.42 11.59
NFC West Wins Loss
SF 11.76 4.24
SEA 9.27 6.73
ARI 6.82 9.18
STL 6.22 9.78

AFC Playoff Picture
#1 Houston
#2 Denver
#3 Pittsburgh vs. #6 Indianapolis
#4 New England vs. #5 Baltimore

NFC Playoff Picture
#1 Atlanta
#2 San Francisco
#3 Chicago vs. #6 Seattle
#4 N.Y. Giants vs. #5 Green Bay

I have updated the power rating of nine teams, four up and four down, but maintained the balance in the ratings. Following those adjustments, and updating for actual wins and losses in Week 9, here are the teams that have a +/- 0.75 win move in the latest projections (since we are entering the second half of the season I will now show movement of 0.75 games because it is more significant; there will not be many one game moves going forward because of the less number of games remaining):

UP
PIT +1.5
SEA +1.1
NO +0.8

DOWN
DAL (1.0)
TEN (0.8)
NYG (0.8)

Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings. I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays.

Power Rankings - Week 10
Rank Team
1 Houston
2 San Francisco
3 Denver
4 Pittsburgh
5 New England
6 Seattle
6 Green Bay
8 Chicago
9 Atlanta
10 New York Giants
11 Detroit
12 Dallas
13 San Diego
14 Carolina
15 Philadelphia
15 Baltimore
17 New York Jets
17 Miami
19 Washington
19 New Orleans
19 Minnesota
19 Arizona
23 Tampa Bay
23 St. Louis
25 Oakland
26 Cincinnati
26 Buffalo
28 Kansas City
28 Indianapolis
30 Cleveland
31 Jacksonville
32 Tennessee

  
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Rogers: Week 3 Tip Sheet
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Simo: Vegas Line Moves - Week 3
Rose: Sharp Moves - Week 3
Sportsbook: Sunday's Top Action
Marshall: Tech Trends - Week 3
Sportsbook: SNF - Steelers at Panthers
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