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Tech Trends - Week 13

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College Football Trends

Thursday, Nov. 29 - NFLN, 8:20 p.m. EST
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons Falcons walking a pretty thin line this season, only 1-3 vs. line this season last four at home. Saints lost last week vs. SF but still surging lately with covers in six of last eight, including 31-27 win at home vs. Falcs on Nov. 11. Saints have now won and covered last four in series as well. Saints "over" 20-10 since late 2010, Falcs "under" 17-11 since LY. Saints, based on team trends.
Sunday, Dec. 3 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears Pete Carroll 7-4 vs. line TY, 18-8 vs. number last 26 since early 2011. Carroll 5-0 as dog TY, 11-1 last 12 as dog, 16-2 last 18 as dog since early 2011. Lovie only one cover last four at home TY. Seahawks "under" 7-4 in 2012, "under" 4-2 on road. Seahawks and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers Ugh! Vikes haven't beaten Pack since the big Favre Minnesota year of 2009, losing last four (1-3 vs. line). Vikes, however, only 1-4 vs. line this season on road, 4-8 last 12 away against line since early LY. Pack has covered only 2 of last 6 vs. line at Lambeau since late LY. "Overs" 7-1 last 8 meetings, and Pack "over" 19-9 since late in 2010 season. "Over" and slight to Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams Rams have actually covered last two vs. 49ers since late LY (including recent SU draw at Candlestick) and are 4-1 vs. spread last five in series. Rams won and covered first three at home (all as dog) TY before recent loss to Jets. Rams also "over" last five this season, and "over" 4-1 last five meetings vs. 49ers. SF 4-1 vs. line away in 2012. Rams and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets Cards have lost last seven SU and had dropped six in a row vs. the number prior to Nov. 18 cover vs. Falcons. Whisenhunt "under" 8-3 this season and "under" 14-5-1 last 20 since early 2011. Cards also 9-5 last 14 as dog. Jets "over" 6-4-1 TY and "over" 34-16 last 50 since late 2009. Slight to Cards, based on extended Whisenhunt dog marks.
Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs Panthers have actually covered their last three on the road this season in a pattern very close to Jacksonville's "road-in-Jag" this season, as visiting team has covered last eight Panthers games in 2012 prior to Monday vs. Eagles. Chiefs 2-4 vs. points at Arrowhead TY and 2-5 last seven since late 2011. Panthers, based on team trends.
Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions Lions again no covers last three TY, and only 7-15-1 vs. number last 23 on board since early 2011. Detroit 3-7-1 against number last 11 at Ford Field. Lions also "over" 7-3-1 TY, now "over" 30-15-3 last 48 since late in 2009 campaign. Colts have covered 5 of last 6 TY. Colts and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills "Road in Jag" trend continues, as visitor is 10-1 vs. spread in Jag games this season, with J'ville 5-0 against spread on road. Chan "over" 17-11 since late 2010. Jags and slight to "over," based on road-in-Jag and Bills' "totals" trends.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins Dolphins 1-3 SU and vs. line last four this season. Belichick has won and covered 4 of last 5 at Miami. Road team 8-2 against spread last 10 in series. Belichick "over" 9-2 TY and now "over" 37-12 since late in 2009 campaign. "Overs" last four in series. Patriots and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans Munchak just 4-8 vs. number last 12 at LP Field. Kubiak 21-8-1 against number last 30 on board, and Kubiak 5-1 vs. line last six in series. "Overs" 13-4 last 17 in series since 2003. Texans and "over," based on team and series trends.
Sunday, Dec. 2 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos Schiano has covered 4 of last 5 and 8 of last 11 this season, he's also 5-1 as dog. Broncos have won last six SU and covered 4 of those. Bucs also "over" 5-2 last seven TY, Denver "over" 5-2 last seven and "over" 34-16 since late in 2009 campaign. "Over" and slight to Bucs, based on "totals" and team trends.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens Baltimore has now beaten Steelers three in a row SU. Four of last six meetings decided by exactly three points. Big Ben-less Steel earned narrow cover in 13-10 loss at Heinz Field Nov. 18. Steel only 4-12 vs. line last 16 away from home after loss at Cleveland. Ravens 2-6 against line last 8 at M&T Bank Stadium. Slight to Ravens, based on extended Steeler road spread woes.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders Browns 6-4-1 vs. line TY, 10-4-1 last 15 and 12-5-1 last 18 against spread. Raiders 1-4 vs. points at home TY, 3-7 last 10 against points as host. Browns also "under" 8-3 in 2012 and 22-9-1 since late in 2010 season, though Raiders "over" 17-10 since last season. Browns, based on team trends.
Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers Norv 1-6 SU and 2-5 vs. line last seven TY, Norv also "over" 6-2 last 8 TY, reversing previous "under" string. Marvin Lewis 10-4-1 last 15 vs. spread on road and "over" 9-5 last 14 away. Bengals and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
Sunday, Dec. 2 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys Something has to give here. Birds 1-9 vs. line TY lost 38-23 vs. Dallas on Nov. 11 at Linc. But Cowboys 0-5 vs. line at home TY, no covers last eight at Arlington, 2-11 vs. points at home since 2011, 2-12 last 14 against points as host. Slight to Eagles, based on Cowboys' extended home woes.
Monday, Dec. 3 - ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
New York Giants at Washington Redskins Shan has covered last four vs. Giants including narrow 27-23 SU loss at Met Life Stadium on Oct. 21. But loss by Giants at Cincy on Nov. 11 was first on road after eight straight covers (nine if counting Jets game when G-Men wore white uniforms last December). Giants also "under" 13-5 last 18 since late in 2011 season. Skins and slight to "under," based on series and recent trends.

  
HEADLINES
Manos: Seven Preseason Lessons
Mejia: NFC Preseason Wrap
Mejia: AFC Preseason Wrap
Lawrence: Trends to Watch - September
Lawrence: 2014 NFC Season Preview
Marshall: Ravens rising up
Lawrence: 2014 AFC Season Preview
ASA: NFC North Notebook
ASA: NFC South Notebook
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