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NFL Rewind - Week 15

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Editor's Note: After 15 weeks of regular season action, "The SportsBoss" has hit 61% (+1,638) of his NFL selections. Finish the year strong with his NFL Winners!

Right into the numbers this week as I will be posting additional analysis on a variety of factors later this week...

Performance Ratings [PR] (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80).

Performance Ratings
Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended
Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS
11 DEN 50.4 3 49.4 1 99.7 1 19
10 SF 48.6 5 48.8 2 97.3 2 18
12 HOU 48.6 4 45.6 4 94.3 3 29
9 SEA 46.9 7 44.8 6 91.8 4 13
10 NE 56.0 1 33.6 29 89.6 5 11
10 GB 44.5 10 43.6 8 88.1 6 18
7 PIT 40.6 17 46.6 3 87.3 7 28
8 WAS 53.1 2 33.6 28 86.7 8 20
8 CIN 42.4 14 42.3 10 84.7 9 30
12 ATL 47.1 6 37.0 17 84.1 10 31
8 CHI 37.9 24 45.1 5 83.0 11 6
8 DAL 43.5 12 38.6 13 82.1 12 7
4 DET 43.4 13 37.9 15 81.3 13 16
5 CAR 45.5 8 35.6 23 81.1 14 5
8 NYG 44.3 11 34.1 26 78.4 15 2
6 MIA 34.5 28 43.0 9 77.5 16 23
5 BUF 41.5 15 36.0 20 77.5 16 25
9 BAL 40.3 19 36.9 18 77.1 18 9
5 SD 38.1 23 39.0 12 77.1 18 27
6 STL 37.8 25 38.5 14 76.4 20 3
6 TB 41.5 16 34.4 25 75.9 21 26
4 PHI 39.4 21 36.4 19 75.8 22 13
6 NYJ 34.0 29 41.4 11 75.4 23 8
8 MIN 39.4 20 35.9 21 75.4 24 14
9 IND 40.5 18 34.5 24 75.0 25 32
4 OAK 38.4 22 34.1 26 72.5 26 24
6 NO 45.2 9 27.2 32 72.4 27 4
2 KC 35.1 27 35.6 22 70.8 28 22
5 CLE 32.6 30 37.1 16 69.6 29 21
5 ARI 25.5 32 43.9 7 69.4 30 1
5 TEN 36.4 26 32.4 30 68.7 31 10
2 JAC 29.1 31 29.4 31 58.5 32 15

*Blended SOS is a weighted average of opponent's performance ratings and opponent's record

Next up, here are my projected standings after Week 15. As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.

AFC East Wins Loss
NE 11.71 4.29
NYJ 6.89 9.11
MIA 6.69 9.31
BUF 6.11 9.89
NFC East Wins Loss
WAS 9.28 6.72
NYG 9.16 6.84
DAL 8.96 7.04
PHI 4.72 11.28
AFC North Wins Loss
BAL 9.79 6.22
CIN 9.20 6.80
PIT 8.29 7.71
CLE 5.29 10.71
NFC North Wins Loss
GB 11.56 4.44
CHI 8.99 7.01
MIN 8.50 7.50
DET 5.38 10.62
AFC South Wins Loss
HOU 13.50 2.50
IND 9.81 6.19
TEN 5.78 10.22
JAC 2.47 13.53
NFC South Wins Loss
ATL 13.22 2.78
TB 6.79 9.22
NO 6.50 9.50
CAR 6.17 9.83
AFC West Wins Loss
DEN 12.92 3.08
SD 6.00 10.00
OAK 4.81 11.19
KC 2.52 13.48
NFC West Wins Loss
SF 11.88 4.13
SEA 10.28 5.72
STL 7.21 8.79
ARI 5.63 10.38

AFC Playoff Picture
#1 Houston
#2 Denver
#3 New England vs. #6 Cincinnati
#4 Baltimore vs. #5 Indianapolis

NFC Playoffs Picture
#1 Atlanta
#2 San Francisco
#3 Green Bay vs. #6 New York Giants
#4 Washington vs. #5 Seattle

Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings. I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays.

These rankings can be used to view the strength I see each team - meaning, I would currently favor Denver over any other team in the NFL on a neutral field; I would also make Jacksonville an underdog vs. another other team on a neutral field; and you can apply that logic to the rest of the rankings.

Power Rankings - Week 14
Rank Team
1 Denver
2 New England
3 San Francisco
4 Houston
5 Seattle
6 Green Bay
7 Pittsburgh
7 Cincinnati
7 Washington
10 Atlanta
11 Chicago
12 New York Giants
12 Carolina
14 Dallas
15 Baltimore
15 Miami
17 St. Louis
18 Detroit
18 San Diego
20 Buffalo
20 Minnesota
22 New Orleans
23 New York Jets
24 Arizona
25 Tampa Bay
26 Indianapolis
27 Cleveland
28 Oakland
29 Philadelphia
30 Tennessee
31 Kansas City
32 Jacksonville

  
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Mejia: Preseason Notes - AFC
ASA: NFC North Notebook
ASA: NFC South Notebook
Marshall: Philadelphia Hype
Rogers: AFC North Preview
Bills WR Watkins day to day
Punter Kluwe, Vikings reach settlement
Cardinals' Mathieu comes off PUP list
Eagles release linebacker Phillips
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