Offenses - And The Over - Dominate On Divisional Round Weekend
On the NFL's wild card weekend, no team scored more than 24 points in the four games played and every game went under the total. Things changed as dramatically as possible during this past weekend's Divisional Round action with every game exceeding its over/under total. That very much benefitted bettors at Bovada.
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A total of 276 points were scored (average of 69.0 per game), a record for any NFL playoff weekend. If you scored only four touchdowns, as Seattle and Houston did, you lost. Only three teams averaged at least 28 points during the regular season: New England, Denver and New Orleans. Every Divisional Round game topped 850 yards of total offense: 49ers-Packers led with 931, Seahawks-Falcons next with 908, and Ravens-Broncos and Texans-Patriots each had 877 yards of offense. By comparison, the regular season saw games average 45.6 points and 694.4 yards of offense.
The highest total of the weekend at the book was set at 51 points on Patriots-Texans and that was surpassed early in the fourth quarter of New England's 41-28 victory. Tom Brady threw for 344 yards and three scores in winning his 17th postseason game, breaking a tie with his boyhood idol, Joe Montana, for the most in league history. Montana remains No. 1 all-time with 45 postseason TD passes, but Brady could surpass that Sunday against Baltimore in an AFC title game rematch.
Almost 73% of the action on that game was on the over 51 points (-115). It was the only big spread win of the four games last weekend for bettors, with almost 58% taking New England giving 10 points. There was about a 66% lean on the Patriots on the moneyline, but because they were such huge -440 favorites it was a good result for the book. Brady over two touchdown passes was one of the top player prop wins for bettors.
The other AFC game saw the Ravens pull the only upset of the weekend, shocking the Broncos 38-35 in double overtime in the fourth-longest playoff game in NFL history. That had the lowest total of the four games at 44, but more than 62% took the over. Baltimore took just 25% of the action on the moneyline, but it was good for bettors at the +300 price. The Ravens closed as 10-point dogs and took only about 47% so that was a win for the book.
The biggest lean on a total was over 46 points in the Packers-Niners NFC game on Saturday, with almost 76% leaning that way. The 49ers' 45-31 victory was a great result for the book otherwise. Only a little more than 17% took San Francisco at -145 and around 36% took the Niners giving three points. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers under 280.5 passing yards was one of the book's top prop wins.
Finally, the Falcons beat the Seahawks 30-28 in an NFC thriller on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta. Seattle rallied from a 27-7 deficit to take a 28-27 lead with 31 seconds left, but Matt Ryan got the Falcons to the Seattle 32, where Matt Bryant kicked the winning 49-yard field goal, his third game-winning kick this season. It was the second playoff game ever with two lead changes in the final 31 seconds of regulation. The other was the memorable "Music City Miracle" when the Titans stunned the Bills with a last-second kickoff return for a score on January 8, 2000.
Bettors leaned at about 67% on the over 47 points for Seahawks-Falcons. Atlanta took approximately 53% at -140 on the moneyline. The Seahawks took just 42% at plus three. The bettors' top player prop of the Divisional Round was on Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch under 100.5 rushing yards. The book's top overall prop also was from that game: Seahawks QB Russell Wilson over 44.5 rushing yards.
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