Week 1-16 Lines · 2013 Season Win Totals
LVH provided gamblers with Week 1 NFL lines in mid-April and now Cantor Gaming in Las Vegas has released numbers for every game of the 2013 season and season win totals.
Let’s start with the New England Patriots, who are favored in every game with the exception of three pick ‘em situations at Atlanta, at Baltimore and at Houston. The Patriots have a win total of 11 ‘over’ (-115).
Bill Belichick’s club remains the hands-down favorite in an AFC East that looks weak on paper. The Pats lost WR Wes Welker, but they acquired Danny Amendola via free agency and drafted a pair of wideouts in Marshall’s Aaron Dobson and TCU’s Josh Boyce.
In addition to the three pick ‘em road games previously mentioned, New England (-1.5) also has a tough assignment at Cincinnati in Week 5. This is an even more challenging spot since Belichick’s bunch will be coming off a big game at Atlanta the previous week. Also, the Pats host the Steelers and Saints as four-point home favorites and are 1.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. Denver in Foxboro.
Speaking of the Broncos, they are favored in every game with the exception of the trip to New England and a pick ‘em spot at Houston. Welker landed with Peyton Manning and Co. and the Broncos also bolstered the offense by selecting Wisconsin RB Montee Ball in the second round.
Denver, which has a win tally of 11 ‘over’ (-120) at Cantor, opens the season at home on a Thursday night vs. Baltimore in a rematch of last year’s epic double-overtime road win by the Ravens en route to winning the Super Bowl. This number is seven (-120) with the Broncos as home favorites.
That number seems a little rich, especially considering the work GM Ozzie Newsome has done for the defending champs during the offseason. I believe the Ravens found an ideal replacement for Ed Reed in first-round pick Matt Elam, a head-hunting safety out of Florida.
Baltimore’s defensive ends are two of the NFL’s best in Terrell Suggs and newly acquired Elvis Dumervil, who was signed away from the Broncos in free agency. Other key moves by Newsome include the drafting of LB Arthur Brown (2nd round, Kansas St.), the re-signings of OT Bryant McKinnie and TE Dennis Pitta, in addition to the under-the-radar acquisitions of center A.Q. Shipley and DE Marcus Spears.
Of course, Joe Flacco is back following his incredible performances in last year’s postseason. Remember, he clearly outplayed Manning in the Mile High City five months ago. The Ravens have a win total of nine flat (-110 either way).
Along with Denver and New England, San Francisco shares the highest season win total at 11 ‘over’ (-125). Cantor has the 49ers as underdogs just once, as they are catching 2.5 points at Seattle in Week 2. They are 3.5-point home favorites vs. Atlanta in a Week 16 rematch of last year’s NFC title game.
The Falcons have a win total of 10 ‘over’ (-115). GM Thomas Dimitroff made a pair of key signings in free agency by inking RB Steven Jackson (Rams) and DE Osi Umenyiora (Giants). Perhaps most important, Atlanta talked TE Tony Gonzalez into returning for one more season.
With the loss of CBs Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson, Dimitroff addressed the position by trading up into the first round to get Desmond Trufant from out of Washington. With the team’s second draft pick, Atlanta took CB Robert Alford and then traded up again in the middle rounds to take DE Stansly Maponga out of TCU.
Seattle has a win total of 10 ‘over’ (-120) after coming seconds away from getting to the NFC title game last season. The Seahawks will get another shot at Atlanta in a pick ‘em game in Week 10. They are underdogs only once as 2.5-point ‘dogs at San Francisco in Week 14.
In Week 15, Seattle could be in its toughest situation when it travels to the Meadowlands to face the Giants after playing arch-rival San Francisco on the road. The Seahawks might have made the best offseason move of any franchise with their trade for Percy Harvin, who is an all-purpose yardage machine who should work well with rising star QB Russell Wilson.
New Orleans will get one of the NFL’s premier head coaches in Sean Payton back after a one-year suspension. The Saints have a win total of nine ‘over’ (-115). They are short underdogs four times -- +1 at Chicago (Week 5), +4 at New England (Week 6), +2.5 at Atlanta (Week 12) and at Seattle (+3.5).
The spots at New England and at Seattle will be especially difficult due to the travel circumstances, not to mention the competition, in the games the previous weeks.
We know the Saints will put up points with Payton calling the plays and Brees under center, but that won’t matter if they can’t improve a defense that was the worst in NFL history last year. Former Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan will take over this beleaguered unit.
New Orleans added new defensive pieces in the draft with No. 15 selection Kenny Vaccaro, a safety from Mack Brown’s Texas program. Also, nose tackle John Jenkins (Georgia) is a major space-eater with his 346 pounds. The Saints also added veteran safety Jim Leonhard.
The NFC East is wide open again, as evidenced by the similar season win totals: Giants 9 ‘over’ (-120), Dallas 8.5 flat (-110 either way), Washington 8 flat and Philadelphia 7 ‘over’ (-120).
Jerry Jones demonstrated his faith in Tony Romo, the owner of one career postseason win in seven years as the starting QB, by signing him to a long-term extension through 2019. As for Washington’s QB situation, it is hoping Robert Griffin III will be ready by Week 1.
According to multiple reports, RG3 is making remarkable strides in his recovery from knee surgery. Whatever the case, Kirk Cousins proved he can play as a rookie last year and he’ll be able to hold down the fort until RG3 is 100 percent.
With new head coach Chip Kelly, the Philadelphia QB position is up for grabs with three contenders in Michael Vick, Nick Foles and rookie fourth-round pick Matt Barkley.
The lowest win totals belong to Jacksonville (5 ‘over’ -120), Arizona (5.5 ‘under’ -120), Oakland (5.5 flat) and Cleveland (5.5 flat). The Jaguars are underdogs in every game with a pair of exceptions in pick ‘em spots at home vs. Arizona and Tennessee.
I find it audacious and incomprehensible that Jacksonville is going into another season with Blaine Gabbert as its starting QB, assuming he beats out Chad Henne. I’m bullish on ‘under’ five wins for this team that has no shot at success with such a horrible situation at QB.