Friday Preseason Tips
August 9, 2013
By Kevin Rogers
The underdogs took home the money in four of six preseason games last night, improving to 5-2 ATS since Sunday's Hall of Fame game. The Ravens, Redskins, and Bengals all won outright in the road 'dog role, while the 'over' hit in five of the six games on Thursday.
Dolphins (-1 ½, 35 ½) at Jaguars - 7:30 PM EST
2012 Preseason Records: MIA (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), JAX (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Dolphins beat Jaguars, 27-26 in 2010
QB Rotations: MIA - Tannehill, Moore, Devlin
JAX - Gabbert, Henne, Kafka
Handicapper Analysis: ASA - Miami already has a game under their belt which should be an advantage here. The Fins lost in the Hall of Fame game last Sunday to Dallas, 24-20. However, Miami dominated the stats with seven more first downs and 421 total yards to just 266 for the Cowboys. The Fish averaged 5.5 yards per play while holding Dallas to only 4.6 yards per play. The score was obviously deceiving as the Cowboys first two TD’s came on a 9-yard drive after a Ryan Tannehill fumble and on a 75-yard interception return.
Jets at Lions (-3 ½, 36 ½) - 7:30 PM EST
2012 Preseason Records: NYJ (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), DET (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Jets beat Lions, 10-3 in 2005
QB Rotations: NYJ - Sanchez, G. Smith, Simms, McElroy
DET - Stafford, Hill, Moore, Lewis
Handicapper Analysis: The Gold Sheet - Detroit's Jim Schwartz has become one of the more predictable forces in preseason since taking over the Lions, going 12-4 straight up and 11-4 vs. the spread. New York has usually been a slow starter under Rex Ryan, going 0-4 in Week One of exhibition play, and this year's team has its third offensive coordinator in three years.
Patriots at Eagles (-4 ½, 41) - 7:30 PM EST
2012 Preseason Records: NE (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS), PHI (4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Eagles beat Patriots, 27-17 in 2012
QB Rotations: NE: Brady, Mallett, Tebow
PHI - Vick, Foles, Barkley, Dixon
Handicapper Analysis: Antony Dinero - Talk of Tom Brady destroying the Eagles secondary has come out of Philly, where the Patriots have served as scrimmage partner since Tuesday. Considering both Michael Vick and Nick Foles are out to impress, not to mention the pace Chip Kelly and Bill Belichick are trying to instill, this game should be high-scoring.
Cardinals at Packers (-3, 34 ½) - 8:00 PM EST
2012 Preseason Records: ARZ (1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS), GB (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Packers beat Cardinals, 28-20 in 2011
QB Rotations: ARZ - Palmer, Stanton, Lindley
GB: Rodgers, Harrell, Coleman
Handicapper Analysis: Doc's Sports - Yes, the Packers have Aaron Rodgers, but I do not expect to see much of him in this game, especially since their left tackle went down last Saturday and Green Bay just cannot afford any more injuries. The Packers have terrible back-ups that do not fit Mike McCarthy’s style of throwing the ball down the field. This team is so desperate for a quality back-up that they just signed Vince Young, a player that has not seen action since 2011.
Bears at Panthers (-2 ½, 34) - 8:00 PM EST
2012 Preseason Records: CHI (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), CAR (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Panthers beat Bears, 30-12 in 1996
QB Rotations: CHI - Cutler, J. McCown, Blanchard
CAR - Newton, Anderson, Clausen, Cameron
Handicapper Analysis: Marc Lawrence - New coaches in their first NFL preseason game are 5-14 SU and 2-17 ATS since 2000 if their team won three or more preseason games last year, including 0-8 SUATS if they open the preseason on the road. That's the case for new Bears head coach Marc Trestman and the Bears tonight.
Chiefs at Saints (-3, 36 ½) - 8:00 PM EST
2012 Preseason Records: KC (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS), NOR (2-3 SU, 4-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Saints beat Chiefs, 30-7 in 2007
QB Rotations: KC: A. Smith, Daniel, Bray, Stanzi
NOR: Brees, Wallace, L. McCown, Griffin
Handicapper Analysis: Tony Stoffo - The Chiefs have been the worst preforming team in the preseason year after year - in the past 6 preseasons the Chiefs are an amazing 4-21 against the spread. However, let's not forget that when Andy Reid was with the Eagles, he hated this opening preseason game and put no effort into winning this game - the records don't lie as Reid in his last 8 preseason openers went a money making 1-7 if you faded the Eagles.
Texans at Vikings (PK, 35) - 8:00 PM EST
2012 Preseason Records: HOU (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS), MIN (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Texans beat Vikings, 28-24 in 2012
QB Rotations: HOU: Schaub, Yates, Keenum, McGee
MIN: Ponder, Cassell, Bethel-Thompson
Handicapper Analysis: Pat Hawkins - The Texans have come out firing in the past two season when playing early preseason games as they have gone 4-0 ATS in their two open games in the last two preseasons. On the other hand, the Vikings have not out too much stock in the practice games under Leslie Frazier as he has gone 0-2 in opening practice games.
Cowboys (-1 ½, 35) at Raiders - 10:00 PM EST
2012 Preseason Records: DAL (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS), OAK (1-3, 2-2 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Cowboys beat Raiders, 3-0 in 2012
QB Rotations: DAL: Romo, Orton, Stephens
OAK: Flynn, Pryor, T. Wilson, McGloin
Handicapper Analysis: Kevin Rogers - Historically, favorites that won the Hall of Fame game are usually a good fade the next week, as the Cowboys are in that position tonight, especially as road 'chalk.' Dallas cashed as short away 'dogs last season at Oakland, 3-0, but with the roles reserved, the Raiders look to be the play.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at email@example.com
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.
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8-1 Sun., 8-3 G-Plays, 67% +1,550
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10-3 Sun., 28-12 Run, 6-0 Totals
8 Wins in a Row, 5-1 L6 G-Plays
16-7 L5 Sundays, 62% +1,269 TY
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4-0 L2 Sundays, 9-2 L11 Picks
18-7 Record Last 4 Sundays
12-6 L3 Sun, 20-11 Run, +898 TY
12-7 L19 G-Plays, 7-2 L5 Sundays
4-1 Sun., 13-7 L20, 5-2 G-Plays
5-1 L6 G-Plays, 8-2 L10 Totals
3-0 Sunday, 8-4 Over/Unders TY
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