Gridiron Angles - Week 2
September 14, 2013
By Vince Akins
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NCAA PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- Auburn is 15-0-1 ATS (9.1 ppg) since 1997 when they aren’t more than 21 point favorites or 10 point dogs and won by between 17 and 30 last game as between a 5 and 31 point favorite.
NFL USER TREND:
-- The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS as a dog against a non-divisional AFC team, following a game where Maurice Jones-Drew ran for less than 57 yards.
NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Redskins are 11-0-2 ATS since October 13, 1996 as a road dog on grass after playing as a favorite.
-- The Buccaneers are 0-9-1 ATS since December 2006 as a home dog between away games.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- Demaryius Thomas is 0-7 ATS (-10.0 ppg) coming off a game where the total was under 51 and he had at least 103 receiving yards.
NFL O/U TREND:
-- The Chiefs are 0-15-1 OU since December 05, 2010 when their opponent’s season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35.
PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:
Last week we looked at Seattle’s tendency to start the season with low scoring games away from home. This week we can scroll to the other end of the September scoring chart to see a Detroit Lions team who ranks in the top 5 for both Over/Under percentage and scoring margin “Over” the total the past 10 years.
Detroit’s (11-6-1 O/U) vast majority of overs were losses but since Jim Schwartz took over in 2009, the Lions have learned how to score. When it’s a non-divisional opponent in the first three months of the season Detroit’s record soars to 22-5-1 O/U (82-percent) and this code shows their record away from home in September through November:
That’s 10 overs, 1 under and a push with games going over the mark by an average of more than eight points per game. The line for Detroit at Arizona is 47.5 and we like this game to go over the number.
13-2 L15 Totals, 9-1 Sun., 20-5 L25
13-3 G-Play Run, +1,095 TY
5-2 Sunday, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
9-1 Last 10 NFL Guarantees
4-1 Sunday, 10-3 L13 G-Plays
5-2 Sunday, 10-3 L13 Totals
10-3 L3 Sundays, 28-14 NFL Run
6-1 Thursdays TY, 12-6 L18 GPlays
4-2 Sunday, 4-1 G-Plays TY
8-4 Last 12 Guaranteed Plays
3-0 L3 Thurs., 10-5 L15 Picks
6-2 Last 8 NFL Guarantees
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