Week 3 Tip Sheet
September 20, 2013
By Kevin Rogers
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Packers (-2 ½, 48 ½) at Bengals - 1:00 PM EST
Green Bay: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
Cincinnati: 1-1 SU, 1-0-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Packers bounced back from an opening week loss at San Francisco by blowing out Washington, 38-20 as 7 ½-point home favorites. Green Bay jumped out to a 24-0 halftime lead and never looked back to win their ninth consecutive game at Lambeau Field. The Bengals took down division rival Pittsburgh on Monday night, 20-10 to cash as 6 ½-point home 'chalk,' while improving to 4-1 ATS in their last five games in the favorite role.
Previous meeting result: Cincinnati upset Green Bay at Lambeau Field, 31-24 in Week 2 in 2009, cashing outright as nine-point underdogs. The only active skill position player for either squad that is still with their respective team is Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 261 yards and a touchdown in the loss.
Betting notes: The Packers have struggled on the road off a home victory since December 2011, going 2-5 SU/ATS, including defeats as a favorite at Seattle, Indianapolis, and Minnesota last season. The Bengals are riding a nice hot streak against the number, posting an 8-2-1 ATS record since last November, including a 4-1 ATS mark Paul Brown Stadium.
Buccaneers at Patriots (-7, 44) - 1:00 PM EST
Tampa Bay: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS
New England: 2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS
Last week's results: The Bucs blew an opportunity to win in the final minute for the second straight week in a 16-14 home defeat to the Saints. Tampa Bay covered as three-point underdogs, but the Bucs missed a late field goal to go up by four points, while allowing New Orleans to march down the field to set up the game-winning kick. New England stormed out to a 10-0 advantage over the rival Jets, but the Patriots would score only three points the rest of the way in a 13-10 win as 11-point home favorites.
Previous meeting result: The Pats routed the Bucs in London back in 2009 with a 35-7 drubbing as 15 ½-point favorites. New England is making its first-ever regular season visit to Raymond James Stadium as the Pats last played in Tampa back in 1997, a 27-7 defeat.
Betting notes: The Patriots are 5-1 ATS the last six opportunities when coming off back-to-back ATS losses, including two blowouts last season against the Dolphins and Rams in this situation. The Bucs are listed as a road 'dog for the first time this season, coming off a 5-2 ATS record in that role in 2012.
Browns at Vikings (-6 ½, 41 ½) - 1:00 PM EST
Cleveland: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
Minnesota: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS
Last week's results: Cleveland's offense failed to reach the end zone in a 14-6 defeat at Baltimore, as the Browns will be without quarterback Brandon Weeden (thumb) and running back Trent Richardson (trade to Colts) on Sunday. The Vikings were able to cash as six-point road underdogs at Chicago, but Minnesota was on the wrong side of a 31-30 loss to lose their second straight road divisional matchup.
Previous meeting result: Minnesota took care of Cleveland in the 2009 season opener, 34-20 as four-point road 'chalk.' Adrian Peterson ran all over the Browns defense for 180 yards and three touchdowns, including a 64-yard touchdown score. The Browns make their visit to Minneapolis since 2005, when the Vikings picked up a 24-12 triumph.
Betting notes: The Browns have compiled a 2-5 ATS record on the road when coming off an away contest since 2010, while scoring 17 points or less six times. Under Leslie Frazier, the Vikings have struggled in the role of a home favorite, posting a 2-6-1 ATS record, but both covers came in victories over 23 or more points.
Falcons at Dolphins (-2 ½, 44 ½) - 4:05 PM EST
Atlanta: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
Miami: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS
Last week's results: Atlanta took control from wire-to-wire in a 31-24 home victory over St. Louis as four-point favorites. The Falcons grabbed a 24-3 halftime lead and never looked back even though the Rams made the final score look closer than the game actually was. The Dolphins are off to their first 2-0 start since 2010 following road victories at Cleveland and Indianapolis, while holding off the Colts, 24-20 as short underdogs.
Previous meeting result: Miami visited the Georgia Dome to kick off the 2009 season, but left with a 19-7 loss, as the Dolphins turned the ball over four times. The Falcons won in their previous trip to South Florida, a 17-10 triumph in 2005 as two-point road favorites.
Betting notes: The Dolphins split four games as a home favorite last season, but Miami never laid points against any team that finished above .500. Since losing to the Steelers in the 2010 opener, the Falcons have won 10 of their past 11 contests against AFC opponents.
Colts at 49ers (-10, 46) - 4:25 PM EST
Indianapolis: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS
San Francisco: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Colts lost for the first time in nine tries in a game decided by seven points or less in last Sunday's four-point home defeat to the Dolphins. The 49ers return home after getting slammed by the Seahawks, 29-3 as three-point road underdogs last Sunday night. The loss dropped San Francisco to 5-3 ATS in the role of an away 'dog under Jim Harbaugh.
Previous meeting result: When these teams hooked up in 2009, the 49ers cashed as 13-point road underdogs in a narrow 18-14 defeat to the mighty Colts. Indianapolis ripped apart San Francisco in its last visit to Candlestick Park in 2005, a 28-3 blowout as 16 ½-point favorites.
Betting notes: The Colts put together a putrid 2-5 ATS record last season as a road underdog, including blowout losses at New England, Chicago, and Baltimore. The Niners haven't lost consecutive games in Harbaugh's tenure, while going 6-2 ATS off a non-win (which includes the tie against the Rams last season).
Jaguars at Seahawks (-19, 41) - 4:25 PM EST
Jacksonville: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS
Seattle: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS
Last week's results: Jacksonville continues to look like the worst team in the league following a 19-9 loss at Oakland, pushing the Jags' season total of points to 11. On the flip side, Seattle opened things up after leading San Francisco, 5-0 at the half to outscore the 49ers, 24-3 in the second half of Sunday night's blowout of the Niners. The Seahawks improved to 8-1 ATS the last nine games dating back to last November.
Previous meeting result: The last time the Jaguars visited the Pacific Northwest, Seattle blanked Jacksonville, 41-0 as one-point favorites in 2009. This is only the third visit for Jacksonville to Seattle in franchise history, while losing four of six previous meetings overall.
Betting notes: The Seahawks have dominated at CenturyLink Field since 2011 by posting a 13-4 ATS record, while laying the most points since 2005, when Seattle destroyed San Francisco, 41-3 as 16-point 'chalk.' The Jags covered all three games last season when receiving at least 13 points, including single-digit defeats at Houston and Green Bay.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at email@example.com
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.
14-3 Thurs, 21-8 G-Plays, +1,864
20-9 L29, 25-11 L36, 30-13 L43
9-1 L4 Sundays, 7-1 L8 G-Plays
11-3 L8 Sundays, 19-7 Win Streak
3-0 Thursday, 17-8 L25 Guarantees
12-5 L17 Guaranteed Plays
10-3 L13 Over/Under Plays
6-3 L8, 13-6 L3 Sundays, 15-7 Run
4-0 Sunday, 14-7 L21 Guarantees
4-1 Sunday, 7-1 L8, 15-6 L21
7-2 L9 Picks, 9-4 L13 Totals
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