Week 3 Sharp Moves
September 20, 2013
By Mike Rose
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Editor’s Note: Mike Rose has started the NFL season with a 13-6 (68%) record, which includes a 5-1 (83%) mark with total plays. Don’t miss out on Week 3 Winners!
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Here’s a look at some of the sharpest positions available on the Week 3 board!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Friday morning, which can be found here.
(Rotation #398) Baltimore Ravens – The Texans have never won a game in Baltimore in their history, and there is no doubt that the boys from the Lone Star State have a lot of explaining to do after barely hanging on against the Chargers and Titans in the first two weeks of the season.
Opening Line: Baltimore +2.5
Current Line: Baltimore +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on Houston
(Rotation #406) Cincinnati Bengals – Basically the same game. The Bengals are at home against a team that is expected to win its division this year. Green Bay and Cincinnati are both better than Houston and Baltimore respectively, but the concept is exactly the same.
Opening Line: Cincinnati -1
Current Line: Cincinnati +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 74% on Green Bay
(Rotation #410) Miami Dolphins – Miami was sharp as a tack last week, and it was able to go on the road and upset the Colts for the straight up win. Now in its home opener, it gets an Atlanta team that doesn't have its best running back, its best defensive linemen, one of its top corners, and its fullback.
Opening Line: Miami -1
Current Line: Miami -3
Public Betting Percentage: 68% on Atlanta
(Rotation #416) New York Jets – Again, basically the same game that we just spoke about. The Jets are laying just short of a field goal against a team that should at least be a little bit better than they are on paper. The difference is that we're talking about two teams that stand little to no chance of getting into the playoffs instead of two teams that are going to be fighting for bids to get into the second season.
Opening Line: New York -1
Current Line: New York -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Buffalo
(Rotation #418) Pittsburgh Steelers – See: Baltimore and Cincinnati. Unless the entire AFC North really does just turn out to be wretched this year, all three of these teams are clearly fantastic bets in Week 3. Do you remember the last time that the Steelers were underdogs in a game at home with a healthy QB Ben Roethlisberger under center? Try going back to the 2008 playoffs. The last time it happened in the regular season was Big Ben's rookie year.
Opening Line: Pittsburgh +2
Current Line: Pittsburgh +2.5
Public Betting Percentages: 66% on Chicago
8-4 L2 Sundays, +2,162 TY
9-2 L11 Picks, 14-5 L3 Sundays
9-1 L2 Sundays, 15-4 L4 Sundays
13-2 L3 Sundays, 48-24 L72 Run
12-4 L5 Sundays, 19-8 L27 Picks
19-12 +763 L31, +1,339 TY
15-7 L12 Sundays, 26-12 Run
14-5 L19 Over/Under Plays
5-1 L6 Picks, 11-4 L2 Sundays
9-5 L14 G-Plays, 17-8 L25 Totals
3-1 Sun., 15-7 L22 Guarantees
17-6 Guarantees This Year
7-2 L9 Picks, 6-2 L8 Guarantees
11-5 L16 Totals, 4-2 L6 G-Plays
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