Gridiron Angles - Week 4
September 28, 2013
By Vince Akins
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NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Colts are 13-0-1 ATS since Dec 15, 2002 as a road favorite when their opponent’s season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 0-10 ATS since Oct 19, 2008 when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last two games.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- Saints TE Jimmy Graham is 9-0 ATS since 2011 after a home win where he had at least 60 receiving yards.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Patriots are 15-0 ATS since 2002 on the road after a win as a favorite in which they failed to get into the end zone on at least three separate red zone attempts.
NFL SUPER SYSTEM:
-- Winless teams which are at least 7.5 point home dogs are 43-25-2 ATS and 44-25-1 OU. Active on Jacksonville.
NFL O/U TREND:
-- The Ravens are 0-11 OU since January 13, 2007 as a favorite when they won and covered their last two games.
PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:
The New York Jets stumbled into a Week 1 win against Tampa Bay and then four days later, hung around to get the cover at New England. After beating Buffalo in Week 3 it’s fair to say New York (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) is one of the surprise teams of 2013. The Jets have a Monday game vs. the Falcons on-deck and small road dogs in this spot have produced 8 overs and 4 unders the past five seasons.
Non-divisional road teams in this range who are riding high off a win and gearing up for a big primetime contest next week are 40-22-1 O/U (65-percent) when the total is 36 points or greater:
The home team is not overlooking the Jets and the line is tight enough that both teams see this as a legitimate chance to get a win. The Titans (2-1 SU, 2-0-1 ATS) have held two of three opponents to fewer than 20 points this year but in 2012 they accomplished that feat just three times. With a few books still offering 39.5 we’re still getting fair value on this total and as each team scraps for its third ‘W’ look at backing the Jets and Titans OVER 39.5 points.
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