Sharp Moves - Week 5
October 4, 2013
By Mike Rose
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Editor’s Note: Mike Rose has started the NFL season with a 6-3 (67%) total record. Don’t miss out on his Week 5 Winners!
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 5!
All betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com matchups as of Friday afternoon.
(Rotation #417) Jacksonville +11.5 – The Jaguars and the Rams are both 0-4 against the spread thus far this season, and something has got to give in this one. St. Louis has one of the worst rushing games in the NFL, and that's going to be a welcome sign for a Jacksonville defense that can't stop anyone on the ground. Public bettors are hoping that the Jaguars are just so bad that they are going to lose by 20+ to everyone that they face, but we know that won't be the case.
Opening Line: Jacksonville +13.5
Current Line: Jacksonville +11.5
Public Betting Percentage: 65% on St. Louis
(Rotation #420) Cincinnati -1 – The Bengals have already proven that they can beat some of the best teams in the league, as they had the Bears dead to rights in Week 1, and they beat the Packers in Week 3. Now, they have a New England team that might be the most overrated 4-0 team in the history of the NFL. The Patriots have played absolutely no one yet this year, and they might end up in some hurt because of it this weekend.
Opening Line: Cincinnati -1
Current Line: Cincinnati -1
Public Betting Percentage: 85% on New England
(Rotation #419) New England/Cincinnati Under 45 – A game that really hasn't had a lot of movement in the total, the Pats and the Bengals are simply expected on paper to fly past the number. We know better though, as these two defense might be the highlight of these teams. Move over Tom Brady. You're going to have a tough time getting 24 on the board against this Cincinnati defense.
Opening Line: 45
Current Line: 45
Public Betting Percentage: 78% on Over
(Rotation #426) Chicago pk – The Bears really haven't done much wrong this year, and they are going to be playing against a New Orleans team that, though it has looked good, has only played one road game. Drew Brees and the gang clearly aren't as effective on the road as they are at home, and the one roadie this year was a near miss against what is proving to be a bad Tampa Bay team.
Opening Line: Chicago pk
Current Line: Chicago pk
Public Betting Percentage: 84% on New Orleans
(Rotation #430) Arizona +1 – This one doesn't make much sense to us. The Panthers only have one win on the season. Arizona has two. Carolina is off of a bye week yes, but it also has to travel across the country for this game. And yet the Panthers are favored? And are being bet heavily by the public? This is a sharp player's dream.
Opening Line: Arizona +2.5
Current Line: Arizona +1
Public Betting Percentages: 78% on Carolina
11-0 Thursdays, 27-10 +1,592 TY
4-2 Last 6 NFL Selections
4-1 Last 5 Guaranteed Plays
8-4 L12 Picks, 3-1 L4 Totals