User ID
Password
  Forgot User ID
or Register Today!
VegasInsider.com
Follow Us on Facebook Follow Us on Twitter Follow Us on Google+ VI Mobile Scores and Betting Odds
Home
NFL
NBA
NHL
MLB
NCAA FB
NCAA BK
Golf
Auto Racing
Horses
Boxing/MMA
More
Betting Tools

 
Power Rankings - Week 6

New Sportsbook.com customers: Make your 1st bet, get your 2nd bet free, 100%, winnings paid in cash.
Join Now

Already have an account? Click here to view new Exclusive Rewards!

   

Editor's Note: Don't miss out on weekly NFL Winners from The SportsBoss on VegasInsider.com.

This is our first installment this year discussing my performance ratings and additional metrics/statistics that help us form opinions on each NFL team. Let’s jump right into the #’s: Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80).

Performance Ratings
Category Offense Defense Total Team Blended Turnover
Wins Team Rating Rank Rating Rank Rating Rank SOS Margin
5 DEN 62.4 1 39.6 17 102.0 1 28 1
4 IND 51.6 4 43.2 13 94.8 2 26 6
5 KC 42.0 14 52.3 1 94.3 3 32 10
2 HOU 42.4 13 49.9 3 92.3 4 8 (8)
5 NO 48.5 5 43.5 12 92.0 5 30 6
4 SEA 43.9 11 46.2 8 90.1 6 9 7
1 CAR 43.9 12 45.1 11 89.0 7 14 0
2 GB 52.6 3 35.1 22 87.8 8 5 (2)
3 CIN 39.1 20 47.7 6 86.8 9 23 (2)
3 NYJ 36.6 22 49.9 3 86.5 10 27 (9)
3 SF 39.5 18 45.5 10 85.0 11 3 0
3 DET 46.0 10 38.7 18 84.7 12 29 4
2 PHI 53.6 2 29.4 29 83.0 13 19 2
3 TEN 40.1 17 42.9 14 83.0 13 11 8
4 NE 36.3 23 45.6 9 81.9 15 24 2
2 DAL 46.9 6 34.8 23 81.7 16 22 3
3 BAL 30.0 28 50.8 2 80.8 17 13 (4)
2 BUF 37.1 21 42.6 15 79.7 18 12 3
3 CHI 46.4 9 32.9 24 79.3 19 20 4
3 CLE 29.3 29 49.6 5 78.9 20 25 1
1 ATL 46.6 8 31.9 25 78.5 21 17 0
2 SD 46.7 7 28.5 31 75.2 22 16 (8)
2 OAK 39.3 19 35.2 21 74.5 23 21 3
3 ARI 31.7 26 41.0 16 72.7 24 18 0
1 WAS 41.5 16 30.5 27 72.0 25 6 (1)
0 TB 23.6 31 46.8 7 70.4 26 1 0
3 MIA 33.7 25 36.0 20 69.7 27 7 1
1 MIN 41.6 15 27.1 32 68.8 28 15 2
2 STL 35.6 24 31.8 26 67.4 29 31 2
0 PIT 30.4 27 37.0 19 67.4 29 10 (11)
0 NYG 25.7 30 29.3 30 55.0 31 2 (13)
0 JAC 16.8 32 30.1 28 46.9 32 5 (7)


Near the top we see some familiar teams from last season in Denver, Houston and Seattle, but also see some new teams busting into the best teams in the NFL in Indianapolis, Kansas City and New Orleans. Let’s discuss these six teams near the top of the performance ratings briefly this week:

DENVER: Playing at an extremely high level especially offensively as no team has averaged a grade of 60+ on either offense or defense over the course of an entire season. What is scary is they are only a +1 in TOM (Turnover Margin) – their defense needs to force more turnovers, while their fumble recovery rate is 2nd worst in the NFL – two areas that may turn some in the Broncos favor especially when Von Miller and Champ Bailey return over the next two weeks.

HOUSTON: Despite the doom and gloom in the media about the Texans I am not jumping ship just yet. Fact is the Texans have played an extremely tough schedule to date, and have posted a (8) TOM which is tied for 4th worst in the NFL. On the good side Houston’s performance is still rated #4 in the NFL supported by a defense that has been stellar at #3. Do not sleep on Houston, remember, when most are zigging you should be zagging to be successful in sports handicapping, especially football.

Advertisement
SEATTLE:
The Seahawks check in at #6 but are not playing as well as last year according to my #’s. Now that has to be adjusted some for the fact they have faced the 9th toughest schedule to date, including facing their two toughest non-divisional road games (Houston, Indianapolis) already. The Seahawks remaining schedule I rate 31st according to their opponents performance rankings and 17th according to opponents wins – so they should start piling up even more wins. Currently Russell Wilson’s offense is ranked 11th including just 16th passing, while their vaunted defense ranks 8th including just 14th versus the pass – so we can see teams that can effectively pass the ball and defend the pass may have the best chance at defeated the Seahawks.

INDIANAPOLIS: The Colts were perhaps my biggest bearish team heading into the season as they had a lot of indicators pointing towards a downward move in their record – so far that theory has been incorrect, but there is still a lot of games to be played. Their offense is ranked #4 in the NFL, defense #13 and they have enjoyed a +6 TOM – all solid figures. One big metric that could point towards a downward adjustment to their wins going forward is a schedule that is ranked 5th toughest measured by opponents performance rating, and 7th using opponents wins (compared to 27th & 17th respectively season to date). Rushing defense is one area that really stands out as a negative performance issue as they check in at #28 – something to keep an eye on especially with 2 of their next 3 opponents checking in with top 9 rushing offenses.

KANSAS CITY: The Chiefs have certainly been the top surprise team this season as they rate #3 in my performance ratings and they are one of three undefeated teams remaining in the NFL. However, looking into their numbers directly may provide enough warning signs that a drop should be imminent: their blended SOS (Strength of Schedule) to date is #32 which is a combination of #31 using opponents performance ratings and #32 using opponents wins; lead the NFL in TOM at #10 and rates just #14 in total offense. Checking into their remaining SOS shows some warning signs in particular an overall remaining SOS of #7 using opponents performance ratings & #13 using opponents wins – a big step up compared to what they have faced to date: only one opponent (Tennessee) above .500 and the Titans lost their QB the week before their matchup. But get this – over their remaining 11 games of the season they only face one team that has a record worse than 2-3 (Washington – and we know the Skins should continue improving as the year goes on, and that game in in DC), and they have 4 games versus teams above .500 (although 3 of those 4 are at Arrowhead).

NEW ORLEANS: Although the Saints weren’t a highly rated team in 2012 (dropped all the way to #26), they were almost always one of the better teams in the league since Brees and Payton hooked up. In the 3 years before 2012 the Saints ranked 2nd (2011), 7th (2010), and 4th (2009) in my performance ratings those seasons. The Saints currently check in at #5 in the NFL, a familiar neighborhood, supported by an offense that rates #5 and a defense checking in at #12. Their remaining opponents are average at best checking in at 12th toughest in performance ratings and 23rd in wins – that should favorably play into their chances at sealing home field advantage in the NFC playoffs. A few potential warning signs are a TOM that ranks 4th in the NFL, they are #1 in total plays and time of possession, 2nd in net plays, and top 14 in both offensive and defensive yards per point.

For this season I am adding a new analysis based on the performance ratings which I will call red flag/green light. Here I will ONLY use my performance ratings and give teams that could be undervalued (green light) by Vegas and are performing better than many believe versus red flag teams that have an inflated record and reputation in Vegas compared to their true on the field performance.

Red Flag: St. Louis, Miami, Arizona, Oakland, San Diego, Cleveland (without Hoyer)

Green Light: Denver, Houston, Carolina, Green Bay

Next let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape. The top four teams in the ratings are from the AFC (next four are from NFC) & six of the top ten are AFC squads. In addition six of the bottom nine teams are from the NFC, so it would seem the AFC is superior to the NFC to date – and the records of head to head matchups back that theory. Here are the figures – I simply take each team’s performance rating ranking from first matrix, sum up each division’s four teams and rank with the lowest rating being the toughest (because #1 is the best / #32 the worst):

Division Rankings
Division Rating Overall Rank
AFC West 49 1
AFC South 51 2
NFC South 59 3
NFC North 67 4
AFC East 70 6
NFC West 70 6
AFC North 75 7
NFC East 85 8


Here are the current playoff projections where I use my power ratings to play out the entire season. Each team’s power rating, which can change week to week based on my performance ratings, provides a projected spread on each game (including a home field advantage/road disadvantage variable) which then correlates to a % chance at winning each game. I simply add up the sums for each team, adjust for actual results once those games are played, and it all comes to my projected standings listed above.

AFC Playoffs
1) Denver
2) Houston
3) New England
4) Cincinnati
5) Kansas City
6) New England

NFC Playoffs
1) Seattle
2) New Orleans
3) Detroit
4) Dallas
5) San Francisco
6) Green Bay

Last analysis for this week is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings. For my blog I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays:

Weekly Power Rankings
Rank Team
1 Denver
2 Seattle
3 Houston
4 New Orleans
5 San Francisco
5 Green Bay
7 New England
8 Indianapolis
9 Detroit
9 Carolina
11 Kansas City
12 Cincinnati
13 Dallas
14 Chicago
15 Atlanta
16 Miami
17 Washington
18 Cleveland
18 Arizona
20 Tennessee
20 Baltimore
20 New York Jets
23 Minnesota
23 Buffalo
25 Pittsburgh
26 St. Louis
26 Philadelphia
28 San Diego
29 Oakland
30 Tampa Bay
30 New York Giants
32 Jacksonville

  
HEADLINES
Marshall: NFL Draft Analysis
News: Johnny Football Props
News: CG posts 2014 Win Totals
WR Rice agrees to terms with 'Hawks
Vikings sign safety Kurt Coleman
Jets sign former Titans RB Chris Johnson
Giants sign QB Josh Freeman as backup
Backup QB Flynn returns to Packers
Judge again rejects NFL's $765M deal
MORE HEADLINES
 
Why Buy Picks From VegasInsider.com
NFL Pro Football Handicapper Sports Picks Records
VegasInsider.com Gold Membership
2013 NFL SEASON PICK RECORDS
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
Joe Nelson + 1340
Chip Chirimbes + 1286
The Gold Sheet + 1262
Last Week's Leaders
Handicapper Money
Mike Rose + 200
Pat Hawkins + 120
Chip Chirimbes + 100
Percentage Leaders
Handicapper Pct
Joe Nelson 60 %
The SportsBoss 59 %
The Gold Sheet 59 %
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Joe Nelson + 805
The Gold Sheet + 713
Scott Pritchard + 615
Over-Under Leaders
Handicapper Money
Dave Cokin + 400
Joe Williams + 324
Tony Stoffo + 203
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
ASA + 670
The SportsBoss + 385
Brian Edwards + 337
MORE PICK RECORDS
  
corner graphic
With a VI Gold Membership, you can SAVE 10% off a Live Odds subscription, SAVE 20% off Daily Pick packages, and receive access to up to 1,000 Member Plays each month!