Inside the Stats
October 16, 2013
By Marc Lawrence
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Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a point-spread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Here are this week’s findings…
Leaking Oil Scorecard
As alluded to in this space last week, when a team has been outgained in each of its three previous games I refer to them as ‘leaking oil’.
There have been 10 college football and four NFL teams that have been installed as ‘leaking oil’ favorites this season. Collectively they are 2-12 against the spread (1-9 CFB; 1-3 NFL).
Last week saw Connecticut (-3.5) and the Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) laying points. They both lost the whole game, straight up.
This week’s Quaker State plays would be against:
NCAAFB: Akron, Georgia Tech, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Rice, Temple
NFL: Detroit, Miami, N.Y. Giants
With the season approaching the midway point, let’s take one final look at expanding our bankroll with college football teams in Game Six situations.
Our well-oiled database reports a turning point for 3-2 or better teams that take to the road when playing off one-loss exact. They win and continue with the prospects of donning bowling shirts, or they lose and begin entertaining visions of staying home for the holidays. Thus, these become pivotal games on each team’s schedule.
These savvy travelers, playing off one-loss exact, respond with vigor in Game Six scenarios going 103-73-3 ATS in all games since 1980. That represents a rock solid 60% wining spread mark.
This week finds Navy patrolling the waters in this Deep Six scenario.
Better yet, when priced as underdogs in competitive situations (+10 or fewer points) they improve to 42-21-1 ATS.
The best role occurs when these same visitors take on a foe off win who sports a .500 or greater record as they improve to 25-8-1 ATS in these spirited battles, including 18-3-1 ATS in games in which the foe allows 14.8 or more PPG on the season.
Yes, indeed, the Midshipmen look to be a ‘devilishly’ good side on this week’s card when they visit Toledo on Saturday.
To a football player, winning football games on the playing field is practically as good as winning them on the scoreboard.
It means your team outplayed the other team, regardless of what the final score said.
It’s also a strong indicator of what results we can expect in future games.
Here is a list of college football teams that are perfect ITS (In The Stats) in all games this season to date:
Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Georgia, Louisville, Michigan State, Oregon, UCLA, Western Kentucky
Here is a list of college football teams that are winless ITS (In The Stats) this season:
Akron, Miami Ohio, New Mexico State, Temple
In the NFL, the only perfect ITS team is Houston (surprise), while the winless ITS clubs include Miami, Minnesota and Tampa Bay.
Highs and Lows
The average OU line in the 14 NFL games last week was 45.5. The average total points per game were 43.8.
The average game went UNDER by -1.7 points. Strange, considering 60% of the overall games went OVER the total (9-6).
It was the second straight week in which there were more ‘Overs’ than ‘Unders’.
Once again the best OVER situation has been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC). These games have gone 22-10 OVER.
This week’s potential non-conference OVERS in Week 7 would be:
Cincinnati at Detroit
San Francisco at Tennessee
Cleveland at Green Bay
Stat of the Week
The Miami Dolphins are 3-19 ATS as home favorites in game in which they own a win percentage of .454 or higher.
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