Gridiron Angles - Week 7
October 19, 2013
By Vince Akins
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NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND
-- The Jets are 10-0-1 ATS since Nov 19, 1995 as a home dog after a loss at home.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND
-- The Bills are 0-11 ATS since Nov 29, 1998 as a dog when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND
-- The Bengals are 0-10 OU since Dec 24, 2011 after a road game in which AJ Green had more than 6 receptions.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND
-- The Rams are 11-0 ATS since 2008 if not 14+ point dogs, if they had a turnover margin of at least +2 last game.
NFL SUPER SYSTEM
-- Teams which have allowed between 700 and 775 yards passing over the past two games are 57-39-1 ATS. Active on Denver.
NFL O/U TREND
-- The Steelers are 0-13 OU since December 2006 at home when facing a team that has benefited from an average of less than 1.4 turnovers per game season-to-date.
PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP
-- Following Seattle’s win against Arizona Thursday there is still a whole whack of football to get through before Minnesota (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS) hits New York for Monday’s game against the Giants (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS). We can see that the line has already moved across a key number, though, to New York (-3.5) so for this week’s tip we will focus our attention here.
-- “Due factor” is the phrase around most water coolers but wasn’t New York “due” after the shutout loss to Carolina? There is another trend suggesting value on home teams following a Thursday nighter and this one makes sense. The players have had extra rest, coaches’ additional time to gameplan and without the hassle of travel the home side has no excuse for a weak effort.
-- This season, home teams are 7-1 ATS off a Thursday game including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark when favored
But the Vikings were 3-5 straight-up on the road last year and so far Minnesota has lost both road games at Detroit and Chicago. Are they not “due?” The Vikes are 12-2 ATS off a blowout loss the past 12 years including a 5-1 ATS record on the road; that certainly adds support to the dog.
-- Minnesota has issues in the secondary and a new starter under center but they also have Adrian Peterson and the Giants struggle against the run. At +3.5 points or more, we like the VIKINGS to cover.
5-2 Sun., 14-4 Run, 10-1 Mondays
41-20 Last 61 Picks, +1,655 TY
3-0 L2 Thurs., 11-3 L14, 16-6 L22
4-0 Run, 10-2 L12 Guarantees
4-1 Sunday, 22-10 L32 Picks
4-1 L5 Picks, 17-9 L5 Sundays
9-3 L12, 11-4 L15 Selections
5-1 Last 6 Guaranteed Plays
16-6 L4 Sundays, 26-12 +1,328 L38
5-1 Last 6 NFL Guarantees
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