Week 8 Tip Sheet
October 26, 2013
By Kevin Rogers
Cowboys at Lions - 1:00 PM EST
Dallas: 4-3 SU, 6-1 ATS
Detroit: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Lions have been up and down of late after losing on a last-second field goal in a 27-24 home defeat to the Bengals. Detroit has alternated wins and losses in the last four weeks, while suffering its first home defeat in three tries. The Cowboys' defense stepped up in a 17-3 victory at Philadelphia as three-point road underdogs, while improving to 3-0 inside the NFC East.
Previous meeting result: Detroit rallied from a 27-3 deficit to stun Dallas, 34-30 in 2011 at Cowboys Stadium. The Lions intercepted Tony Romo three times, including taking two of those picks back for touchdowns. Both Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant each grabbed two touchdowns receiving, but the Lions outscored the Cowboys, 24-3 to close out the victory.
Betting notes: Under Jason Garrett, the Cowboys have been terrific when receiving points on the road, going 7-2 ATS, including covers this season at Kansas City and Philadelphia. The Lions have struggled at home following a defeat at Ford Field, winning just once in six tries since 2010, while losing twice in this span as a favorite.
Browns at Chiefs - 1:00 PM EST
Cleveland: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
Kansas City: 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS
Last week's results: The promising 3-2 start for Cleveland has fallen by the wayside after suffering consecutive defeats to NFC North opponents. The latest setback came at Green Bay in a 31-13 blowout loss to the Packers as 7 ½-point underdogs, the second straight week allowing 31 points. The Chiefs remained undefeated by holding off the short-handed Texans, 17-16 as seven-point home favorites. Kansas City has started the season by limiting each of its first seven opponents to 17 points or less.
Previous meeting result: The Browns destroyed the Chiefs in Cleveland, 30-7 last December as seven-point favorites. In the last matchup at Arrowhead Stadium in 2009, the Browns outlasted the Chiefs, 41-34, while cashing as one-point road 'dogs.
Betting notes: The Chiefs have split four games ATS-wise as a home favorite this season, while putting together a 4-2 ATS record in the 'chalk' role. Since the start of last season, Cleveland is just 3-6-1 ATS as a road underdog, including a 1-2 ATS mark in 2013.
Dolphins at Patriots - 1:00 PM EST
Miami: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS
New England: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS
Last week's results: Each club lost a divisional contest as a favorite, as the Patriots were tripped up in overtime by the Jets, 30-27. Although New England is atop the AFC East, the Patriots haven't covered in three games against division opponents. The Dolphins fell behind the Bills, 14-0 last Sunday before grabbing a 21-17 lead in the third quarter. Buffalo kicked two late field goals to down Miami as six-point underdogs, 23-21.
Previous meeting result: The Patriots swept the season series from the Dolphins in 2012, which included a 28-0 shutout of Miami at Gillette Stadium in the final week. New England has won each of the last six meetings with Miami, while the Dolphins last won in Foxboro back in 2008.
Betting notes: New England has covered six of its last 10 off a loss since the start of the 2010 season, but the four non-covers have come as a favorite of 9 ½ points or more. The Dolphins have struggled off a home loss since December 2010, posting a 3-6 ATS record in the following contest.
Bills at Saints - 1:00 PM EST
Buffalo: 3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS
New Orleans: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS
Last week's results: Buffalo picked up its first road win in three tries with the 23-21 triumph at Miami, while also racking up its first cover on the highway this season. The Saints had last week off, but look to brush off the last-second defeat at New England in Week 6, dropping their first game of the season in a 30-27 setback.
Previous meeting result: New Orleans went into Buffalo in the third week of the 2009 campaign and routed the Bills, 27-7 as 5 ½-point road favorites. The Bills last visited the Superdome in 1998, as Hurricane Katrina forced Buffalo and New Orleans to San Antonio in 2005, a 19-7 win by the Saints.
Betting notes: Buffalo has eclipsed the 'over' in each of the last three games, even though each total was set at 43 ½ or lower. The Bills are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as an underdog of at least six points, while losing only one game by double-digits. The Saints have cashed seven of their last nine home contests dating back to last season, including a 6-1 ATS mark as a favorite.
Jets at Bengals - 4:05 PM EST
New York: 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS
Cincinnati: 5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS
Last week's results: Cincinnati won its third straight game after edging Detroit, 27-24 as 2 ½-point underdogs to improve to 3-0-1 ATS when getting points this season. The Jets covered for the second time against the Patriots this season in an overtime triumph as short home 'dogs, but New York hasn't won consecutive games yet in 2013.
Previous meeting result: New York dominated Cincinnati on Thanksgiving night in 2010 at home in a 26-14 victory as 10-point favorites. The Jets own a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS record under Rex Ryan against the Bengals since 2008.
Betting notes: The Bengals have been listed as a home favorite only once this season, while putting together a 1-2 ATS record in the 'chalk' role. The Jets have cashed the 'over' in four of the last five games after hitting the 'under' in the opening two weeks.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at email@example.com
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.
9-3 L3 Sundays, +1,250 TY
9-2 Last 11 NFL Win Streak
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10-4 L14 G-Plays, 9-4 L13 Totals
6-3 Run, 18-6 Totals, 22-11 L6 Sun.
10-4 L14 G-Plays, 27-14 L8 Sun.
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