Total Talk - Week 8
October 26, 2013
By Chris David
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Week 7 Recap
The ‘over’ went 8-5-1 in Week 7. Five game saw 50 or more points posted on the scoreboard, with the highest-scoring result taking place in the Denver-Indianapolis affair, which saw 72 points posted. Including this result, the Broncos have now seen the ‘over’ cash in all seven of their games this season. Other ‘over’ teams to watch are the Bears (6-1), Rams (6-1) and Falcons (5-1). If you’re looking for a clear-cut ‘under’ team, it’s Kansas City. The Chiefs are 6-1 to the ‘under’ this season. In Week 11, the Broncos will host the Chiefs and it will be interesting to see what the opening total will be. On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 56-48-2 through seven weeks.
The early line moves went 3-1 in Week 7 after back-to-back losing records. Overall, the line moves are 21-13-1 on the season. Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which are sent out on Sunday evening.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: Line opened 54 and dropped to 50 ½
Buffalo at New Orleans: Line opened 50 and dropped to 48
N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati: Line opened 40 and jumped to 41 ½
Washington at Denver: Line opened 55 and jumped to 58
Atlanta at Arizona: Line opened 45 and jumped to 46 ½
Green Bay at Minnesota: Line opened 50 and dropped to 47 ½
This seasonal trend continues to produce profits for total players. Last week, the ‘over’ went 2-1 in AFC-NFC matchups and could’ve been 3-0 if Cleveland and Green Bay could’ve mustered up a couple more points. Through seven weeks, the ‘over’ is now 24-11 (69%) in non-conference games. On Sunday, we have three more games that fit the trend.
San Francisco vs. Jacksonville (from London)
Buffalo at New Orleans
Washington at Denver
Back to London
The NFL International Series returns to London for the second time this season and eighth time overall. Total players had watched the ‘under’ cash in four of the first five matchups played at Wembley Stadium but the ‘over’ has connected in the last two installments. In Week 4, Minnesota outlasted Pittsburgh 34-27 in a back-and-forth contest filled with big plays.
2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 - San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)
2011 - Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 (Under 44)
2012 – New England 45 St. Louis 7 (Over 46)
2013 – Minnesota 34 Pittsburgh 27 (Over 41)
This Sunday could be a tad different from the first go ‘round in London as San Francisco meets Jacksonville. The total is hovering between 40 and 41 points, which appears a little low when you know that the 49ers have put up 30-plus in five of their seven games. We all know the Jaguars are a mess but they have scored 17 or more in three of their four road games outside of Florida.
I personally like to use the vice versa angle as part of my handicapping in divisional matchups, especially when the first encounter is a crazy shootout or a very low-scoring affair. Still, it’s not the end-all when it comes to winning with totals but make a mental note going forward.
For example, the Jets and Patriots played for the second time this season last Sunday and the pair combined for 57 points after only putting up 23 points in the first go ‘round. I didn’t care for the ‘over’ because New England hasn’t shown much explosiveness this season and the Jets still have a rookie quarterback. While the outcome easily went ‘over’ the closing number of 43, keep in mind that both teams had pick-six touchdowns and the game went to overtime, which is always a dagger for ‘under’ tickets.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia: This will be the second meeting between the teams this season as the Eagles beat the Giants 36-21 on the road in Week 5. It may seem that 57 points is a lot but the closing total was 54 and Philadelphia put up 14 points in the final 15 minutes thanks to Eli Manning setting them up with a pair of short tracks.
Miami at New England: The ‘under’ went 2-0 last season. Prior to those results, the ‘over’ was on a 4-0 run in this series. After the ‘under’ started 5-0, the Patriots have watched their last two games ‘over.’ Miami has seen the ‘over’ go 4-1-1 this season.
Green Bay at Minnesota: (See Below)
Seattle at St. Louis: (See Below)
Under the Lights
The ‘over’ has gone 15-9 in primetime games this season and the most profitable trend has been the ‘over’ on Thursday, which cashed again this week albeit luckily in the Carolina-Tampa Bay affair.
Green Bay at Minnesota: These teams played three times last season and the ‘under’ went 2-0 at Lambeau Field. In the regular season matchup from the Metrodome, the Vikings outlasted the Packers 37-34 in a wild shootout. QB Christian Ponder was solid (234 yards, 3 TDs) in that game and he’s starting this week after the Josh Freeman debacle last Monday. Minnesota’s defense had its best effort of the season last week at New York (23 points) but the Giants didn’t play great at all and still managed to put up five scores (3 FGs). The Packers defense has allowed 39 total points the last three weeks, which has helped the ‘under’ go 3-0 during this span.
Seattle at St. Louis: The Rams will start Kellen Clemens at quarterback, which makes you believe they’ll be limited offensively. Even with no offense, the St. Louis defense has allowed 20-plus in all three home games this season and Seattle enters this matchup with extra rest. Despite those facts, this series has seen the ‘under’ cash in five of the last six encounters.
Back-to-back 1-3 weeks hasn’t helped the bankroll this season (-$250). As many of you know, field goals are often considered kryptonite to ‘over’ tickets and that was evident in last week’s play on the Texans-Chiefs matchup and team total. My Three-Team Total Teaser (1-5) record is embarrassing, but I’m not giving up with three months of action left. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!
Best Over: Miami-New England 45
Best Under: Washington-Denver 58
Best Team Total: Over 19 ½ Miami
Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 36 Miami-New England
Over 41 ½ Dallas-Detroit
Under 67 Washington-Denver
Chris David can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org