Gridiron Angles - Week 9
November 2, 2013
By Vince Akins
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NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
The Saints are 14-0 ATS since November 24, 2008 after a game in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
The Raiders are 0-11 ATS since October 07, 2001 at home when facing a team that has averaged less than 28:12 of possession time season-to-date.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Tony Romo is 0-10 OU since December 2007 after a game where he threw no more than 40 passes for less than 260 yards, and completed no more than 59% of them.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Colts are 0-11 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since December 2002 after a game where they scored less than 45 points and their opponent committed at least 11 penalties.
NFL SUPER SYSTEM:
Teams that scored at least 27 points while gaining less than 255 yards last game are 77-52-6 OU. Active on Minnesota and New England.
NFL O/U TREND:
The Rams are 11-0 OU since September 25, 2005 at home after a game in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.
PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:
We often hear how the NFL is a quarterback driven league and in an effort to protect one of its biggest assets, they have rewritten the book on player safety with strict rules about how, when and where a QB can be hit. Occasionally the walls still come crumbling down and for teams like Miami (4.4), Oakland (4.3) and Pittsburgh (3.9), the league’s offensive leaders in QB sacks per game, it happens more often than they would like to admit.
One trend we are seeing this season for teams after watching their QB get trampled is the ability for play callers to make adjustments. With the right conditions it’s produced a highly profitable situation for bettors and so far in Week 9 the Dolphins have already padded this profile’s stats with their 22-20 win over Cincinnati.
Home teams playing immediately off a loss where their QB was sacked four times (or more) have a 15-6 straight-up record, covering the spread at a rate of 80-percent (16-4-1 ATS).
The favorites are 8-1-1 ATS on an average line of -5.5 while home dogs have cashed eight of 11 tickets, two of the losses thanks to Jacksonville and one of those being a neutral site game in London. Buffalo (+3) and the Jets (+6) are “live” this Sunday with tough matchups against undefeated Kansas City and NFC super power New Orleans. Consider this angle as one part of your handicapping process and good luck.