Week 9 Tip Sheet
November 2, 2013
By Kevin Rogers
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Falcons at Panthers (-7 ½, 45) - 1:00 PM EST
Atlanta: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS
Carolina: 4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Falcons put together probably their worst performance of the season in a 27-13 defeat at Arizona as short road underdogs. Matt Ryan tossed four interceptions, while the Falcons rushed for just 27 yards. The Panthers won their third game in a row by dominating Tampa Bay, 31-13, the third consecutive contest breaking the 30-point plateau.
Previous meeting result: The two teams split both meetings last season, but Carolina managed to cover each time. The Falcons held off the Panthers at the Georgia Dome last September, 30-28 as seven-point favorites, while Carolina took care of Atlanta in Charlotte two months later, 30-20. Both matchups finished 'over' the total.
Betting notes: Last week's 'under' in Arizona snapped a five-game 'over' run by Atlanta, even though four of those 'overs' came at the Georgia Dome. The Falcons have put together a dreadful 1-4 SU/ATS record in their last five road divisional contests, while the Panthers are 6-3 ATS the previous nine games inside the NFC South.
Saints (-6 ½, 46) at Jets - 1:00 PM EST
New Orleans: 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS
New York: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
Last week's results: The Saints came off the bye week with a resounding home victory over the Bills, 35-17 as 10 ½-point favorites. New Orleans has won and covered all four games at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome this season, while winning its last three home contests by double-digits. The Jets continued their roller-coaster season by getting destroyed at Cincinnati, 49-9 as six-point away 'dogs. New York has scored one touchdown in less in five of eight games this season.
Previous meeting result: New Orleans cruised past New York, 24-10 in 2009 at the Superdome to end the Jets' early 3-0 start to the season. For as little as history means pertaining to this series, the Saints have won five of the last six matchups with the Jets since 1989, including a 3-0 mark in New Jersey.
Betting notes: The Saints have owned AFC opponents at the Superdome since 2007, by putting together a 7-2 SU/ATS record. The Jets have struggled as a road underdog since the start of last season, compiling a 5-9 ATS mark.
Chargers at Redskins (PK, 51) - 1:00 PM EST
San Diego: 4-3 SU, 5-1-1 ATS
Washington: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS
Last week's results: The Redskins' defense was torched in the fourth quarter of a 45-21 defeat at Denver by allowing 31 points in the final 15 minutes. Washington has allowed a whooping 117 points in the last three games, while failing to cover for the fifth time in seven contests. The Chargers head east for the fourth time this season as San Diego is coming off the bye week. San Diego basically had the bye two weeks ago as the Lightning Bolts destroyed the Jaguars, 24-6, while limiting their last two opponents to a total of 15 points.
Previous meeting result: The Chargers knocked off the Redskins in the season finale of the 2009 season, 23-20 as three-point home favorites. In San Diego's last visit to the Nation's Capital in 2005, the Bolts rallied from a 17-7 deficit to stun the Redskins in overtime, 23-17.
Betting notes: The two victories over NFC opponents for the Chargers this season improved San Diego's mark to 2-7 SU the last nine interconference contests. The Redskins have played high-scoring games against the AFC recently, posting a 6-2 mark to the 'over' since 2011.
Ravens (-2 ½, 41) at Browns - 4:25 PM EST
Baltimore: 3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS
Cleveland: 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS
Last week's results: Both these teams look to end losing streaks on Sunday, as the Ravens have lost their last two games by a combined five points to the Packers and Steelers. Cleveland has gone backwards following a three-game winning streak by dropping its last three contests, while scoring 17 points or less in each defeat.
Previous meeting result: The Ravens have owned the Browns with 10 straight wins in the series dating back to 2008. The last six matchups have finished 'under' the total, including a season sweep by Baltimore in 2012, while limiting Cleveland to just 21 points in the two victories.
Betting notes: Since hitting the 'over' in the opener at Denver, the Ravens have cashed the 'under' in five of the past six games. Under John Harbaugh, Baltimore owns a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record off the bye. The Browns have cashed in the home underdog role in five of their last eight opportunities since the start of last season.
Steelers at Patriots (-6, 44) - 4:25 PM EST
Pittsburgh: 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS
New England: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS
Last week's results: The Steelers fell behind early as short road favorites in last Sunday's 21-18 defeat at Oakland. Pittsburgh has scored 19 points or less in each of the past three games, while falling behind 21-3 to the Raiders before putting up 15 points in the fourth quarter. The Patriots overcame a 14-point halftime deficit to top the Dolphins, 27-17 to cash as 6 ½-point favorites. New England has now alternated wins and losses in each of the last five weeks.
Previous meeting result: Pittsburgh knocked off New England as three-point home underdogs in 2011 with a 25-17 triumph. Ben Roethlisberger torched the Patriots' defense for 365 yards and two touchdowns, while the Patriots were limited to 213 yards on offense. Since 2003, the Pats and Steelers have split a pair of meetings at Gillette Stadium.
Betting notes: The Patriots have covered seven of their last 10 as a home favorite, including a 3-1 ATS mark this season at Gillette Stadium. The Steelers have seen success since 2008 on the road against AFC East opponents by winning each of the last five.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.
12-2 Thurs, 21-7 G-Plays, +1,774
19-8 L27, 24-10 L34, 29-12 L41
9-1 L4 Sundays, 7-0 L7 G-Plays
11-3 L8 Sundays, 19-6 Win Streak
11-4 L3 Sundays, 16-9 L25 Picks
12-5 L17 Guaranteed Plays
5-2 L7, 13-6 L3 Sundays, 14-6 Run
4-0 Sunday, 13-7 L20 Guarantees
4-1 Sunday, 5-1 L6, 13-6 L19
3-1 Monday, 7-3 L10 Totals
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