Gridiron Angles - Week 10
November 9, 2013
By Vince Akins
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NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Colts are 13-0 ATS (12.7 ppg) since December 20, 1992 at home after a win vs a divisional opponent in which they were losing at the half.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-11.40 ppg) since Sep 17, 2006 on artificial turf after playing at home.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
The Titans are 0-5-2 ATS and 0-7 OU since November 20, 2011 after a road game where Chris Johnson ran for more than 70 yards.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
The Eagles are 0-14 OU (-11.4 ppg) since December 25, 2006 when they scored more than 15 points more than expected last game.
NFL SUPER SYSTEM:
Teams are 22-9-1 ATS coming out of a bye when on a 5+ game losing streak. Active on Jacksonville.
NFL O/U TREND:
The Raiders are 0-13 OU (-10.2 ppg) since Nov 20, 2005 as a road dog the week after a loss in which they outgained their opponent
PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:
Up until Week 9 it had been a relatively slow season for overtime games in the NFL with just four games needing a fifth ‘quarter’ to decide the outcome. Last week, however, fans in three stadiums around the league were treated to some bonus football and the home town crowds in Miami, Washington and Seattle all went home happy.
By this point last year there was 10 games decided in OT and the Week 1-9 average since 1995 is 8.1 games. Aside from live wagering, overtime games do little for bettors at the current time but they can be a nice starting point when handicapping the next week’s card. At Pick Sixty we track dozens of post-OT scenarios and here is one profile that has helped cash 16 winners since 2004 including the Thursday nighter in Minnesota.
We’re looking for road faves off an OT game against teams who have hit a losing streak and the recent record is 16 overs and 15 unders (76-percent). It applies to Seattle (-5) in Atlanta (2 L), Cinci (-1.5) at Baltimore (3 L) and Miami (-2.5) at Tampa Bay (8 L). The road fave is averaging 27.4 points per game in this situation but they also allow 23.5 points, perhaps a product of their worn out defense working hard through those extra minutes the previous week.
8-4 L2 Sundays, +2,162 TY
9-2 L11 Picks, 14-5 L3 Sundays
9-1 L2 Sundays, 15-4 L4 Sundays
13-2 L3 Sundays, 48-24 L72 Run
12-4 L5 Sundays, 19-8 L27 Picks
19-12 +763 L31, +1,339 TY
15-7 L12 Sundays, 26-12 Run
14-5 L19 Over/Under Plays
5-1 L6 Picks, 11-4 L2 Sundays
9-5 L14 G-Plays, 17-8 L25 Totals
3-1 Sun., 15-7 L22 Guarantees
17-6 Guarantees This Year
7-2 L9 Picks, 6-2 L8 Guarantees
11-5 L16 Totals, 4-2 L6 G-Plays
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