AFC-NFC Over Trend (77%)
November 18, 2013
By VI News
VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence brought this trend to our attention in his weekly "Inside the Stats" pieces on VegasInsider.com. We've kept a tally of the trend and it's been very profitable this season.
Including Sunday's results, there have been 49 non-conference matchups (AFC vs. NFC) this season and the ‘over’ has gone 38-11 (77%) in those games, which includes a 14-0 record the past three weeks.
In Week 11, the first three matchups saw the 'over' cash.
Detroit 27 at Pittsburgh 37 – Over 45 ½
Baltimore 20 at Chicago 23 -- Over 41
Arizona 27 at Jacksonville 14 - Over 40 ½
The last AFC-NFC matchup takes place on Monday when Carolina hosts New England.
The total opened at 44 and has been pushed up to 47.
Carolina (5-3-1) and New England (5-4) have both leaned to the 'under' this season.
Prior to last week's 'over' result between Tampa Bay and Miami, the 'under' had cashed in four straight games on Monday. The 'over' has gone 6-5 on Monday Night Football this season.
Chris David, who provides a weekly Total Talk column on VegasInsider.com, offered up his quick thoughts on the AFC-NFC trend and the MNF matchup.
He explained, "Like I said last Monday, I'm amazed that this total trend continues to cash. I'm a little hesitant to bet against the trend right now but I do believe it should be part of your handicapping for the rest of the season."
"Similar to the Chiefs-Broncos matchup, this game pits offense versus defense. Denver captured a 27-17 win and the 'under' (49) cashed as the game slowed down in the second-half. The Patriots offense (26 PPG) haven’t been as explosive as past seasons but they can still score and it seems like they're getting healthy. On the other side, the Panthers defense (12.8 PPG) has been lights out albeit against offensive units that have struggled."
"I did find a solid angle on New England for this matchup and it involves rest. The Patriots are coming off their bye week and bettors should be aware that the team is 9-1 in its last 10 regular season games with rest. During this span, the Patriots have been held under 20 points once and they put up 27 or more points six times."
"Also, New England is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread versus the NFC South this season, defeating Tampa Bay (23-3), Atlanta (30-23) and New Orleans (30-27). The ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games. This will be Carolina's second game agaisnt the AFC East this season as it lost at Buffalo (24-23) on Sept. 15 in a game they collapsed down the stretch."
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