Gridiron Angles - Week 11
November 16, 2013
By Vince Akins
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NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Giants are 11-0 ATS (14.23 ppg) since Dec 12, 1999 the week after a game at home in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average.
NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Vikings are 0-14 ATS (-11.93 ppg) since Dec 05, 2004 on the road when their opponent’s season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30.
TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- Marshawn Lynch is 10-0 ATS (14.7 ppg) since 2011 the week after a game where he ran for at least 113 yards.
NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Cardinals are 10-0 OU (+7.9 ppg) since 2002 on the road off a home game in which their offense had ten or fewer possessions, as long as they did not win the game by 21+ points.
NFL SUPER SYSTEM:
-- Teams are 33-20-2 ATS coming out of a regular season bye when on a 4+ game winning streak. Active on Kansas City.
NFL O/U TREND:
-- The Broncos are 11-0 OU (7.18 ppg) since Oct 29, 2006 as a favorite after a win as an away favorite.
PICK SIXTY SPORTS WEEKLY TIP:
Two of the worst records in the NFC go head to head Sunday when Atlanta flies into Tampa Bay for a divisional game against the Bucs. The Falcons have won eight of 11 meetings since 2008 (4-6-1 ATS) and seven of 11 games stayed under including four of five at Tampa but this is by far the worst defensive unit Atlanta has fielded since 2007 when the team finished 4-12 SU.
The Mike Smith-Matt Ryan era began in 2008 and when facing divisional foes whose record is below .500 the Falcs are 11-5 SU with a scoring average of 25.8 points per game. They beat Tampa 31-23 in Week 7 this year and I have little doubt the Falcs will score into the mid-20’s again Sunday but Tampa should also be able to move the ball against this porous Falcon D. The Mike Glennon-led offense has generated 20-plus points in four of the past five games and we’ll give the rookie a pass for coming up short against Carolina. The Bucs also fit this profile which is 12-5 O/U (71-percent) since 2006 looking at divisional home teams who were matched against non-division foes the past couple weeks.
Tampa is 0-3 SU vs. the division in 2013 and if they are going to win one, this will be the team’s best shot. Look for an up-tempo gameplan resulting in an OVER 43.5.
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