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Total Talk - Week 11

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Week 10 Recap

Total players saw a stalemate in Week 10 as the ‘over/under’ produced a 7-7 record in the 14 games.  The betting public was very heavy to the ‘over’ in the Carolina-San Francisco and Denver-San Diego matchups on Sunday and both came up short. It was the first time this season that the Broncos saw their total go ‘under’ the number. Another total that was steamed up in the afternoon was the Detroit-Chicago matchup and that outcome was leaning ‘under’ all day.

Despite winning the early games, bookmakers weren’t happy to see all three primetime games go ‘over’ the number, in particular the Sunday Night Affair between the Saints and Cowboys. New Orleans blasted Dallas 49-17 as 7 ½-point home favorites and the Favorite-Over result hit the trifecta, cashing in the game and both the first and second halves.

On the season, the ‘over’ sits at 78-66-2.

Non-Conference Overs

This particular trend has gained a lot of steam the last three weeks and deservingly so. There have been 46 non-conference matchups (AFC vs. NFC) this season and the ‘over’ has gone 35-11 (76%) in those games, which includes an 11-0 record the past three weeks. I personally thought this trend would temper off just based on the belief that all things will balance out and I would still be hesitant to bet it blindly at this point of the season. There are only 18 situations left and four take place this weekend.

Baltimore at Chicago
Arizona at Jacksonville
Detroit at Pittsburgh
New England at Carolina - (See Below)

Line Moves

The Line Moves went 2-1 last week, pushing the season numbers to 29-19-1 (60%). Listed below are this week’s matchups that have had a total move by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS’s opening lines, which were sent out Sunday evening.

Detroit at Pittsburgh: Line opened 47 ½ and dropped to 45 ½
Baltimore at Chicago: Line opened 47 and dropped to 43 (Weather)
Kansas City at Denver: Line opened 51 and dropped to 49
Green Bay at N.Y. Giants: Line opened 43 and dropped to 40 ½
New England at Carolina: Line opened 44 and jumped to 45 ½

Divisional Battles

We have five divisional matchups this week and four of them will be rematches. If you follow my column before then you’re aware of the vice versa total angle and how it pertains to divisional matchups. It’s simple and not always correct, but certainly something to watch and use when you begin your handicapping.

When analyzing the second divisional encounter of the season, I look at the first outcome and if the total goes way ‘over’ or ‘under’ the closing number, I tend to lean to the opposite outcome in the second go ‘round. For those of you still unclear, I normally look for the first meeting to exceed the total (higher or lower) by 10 points and if it fits, then I’ll analyze the total further.  

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Atlanta at Tampa Bay:
The Falcons stopped the Buccaneers 31-23 on Oct. 20 and the 54 points helped cash the ‘over’ 43. Since that win, Atlanta has scored 13, 10 and 10 points. Also, Tampa Bay isn’t a great offensive team at home (15.8 PPG). However, the Bucs have seen the ‘over cash in five straight.

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: The Jets defeated the Bills 27-20 and the game went ‘over’ the closing number of 47. The last two games in Buffalo have gone ‘under’ and the Bills offense has struggled the last three weeks (13.3 PPG). New York has watched the ‘under’ go 3-0 in their last three games off the bye.

Washington at Philadelphia: The Eagles ran past the Redskins 33-27 on the road in Week 1 and the ‘over’ (51 ½) cashed early in the fourth quarter. The line is a tad higher for the rematch (53) and some bettors might be hesitant to back Philadelphia (0-4) at home, where it’s averaging 13 PPG.

Cleveland at Cincinnati: The Browns beat the Bengals 17-6 and the closing total of 42 ½ was never threatened. Prior to this ‘under’ ticket, the ‘over’ was on a 5-0 run in this series. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton couldn’t get anything going in the first meeting against Cleveland but he did toss six touchdowns in the two contests against the Browns last season.

Kansas City at Denver: (See Below)

Under the Lights

The ‘over’ went 3-0 in primetime games last week. The first two were never in the doubt and the MNF affair between the Bucs and Dolphins started slow but did enough to slide ‘over’ a low number. Earlier this week on Thursday the Colts beat the Titans 30-27, which was another ‘over’ ticket. In Week 11, we have some great heavyweight battles on tap as all four teams in action will most likely be playing in this year’s postseason.

Kansas City at Denver: This total opened at 51 and has already been bet down to 49 and you could argue both ways based on each team’s tendencies. The Chiefs have been an ‘under’ team (7-2) all season while the Broncos have been a great ‘over’ (8-1) look. Denver owns the best scoring offense (41.2 PPG) and Kansas City owns the top scoring defense (12.3 PPG). The ‘under’ has gone 4-0-1 in the last five meetings in this series, which includes a 1-0-1 mark last season. Denver swept the season series in 2012, winning 17-9 on the road and 38-3 at home.

My final thoughts for this matchup focus on trends and as much as I don’t like to play the “due factor” I’ll bring this to your attention. The last three weeks, the SNF matchup has watched the favorite win and cover, plus the ‘over’ has cashed in each game as well. When that happens, the public wins and the books lose. Is that outcome going to happen again? It very well could but make a note that the only combination that hasn’t happened on SNF this season is the Underdog-Under result.

New England at Carolina: Similar to the Chiefs-Broncos matchup, this game pits offense versus defense as well. The Patriots offense (26 PPG) haven’t been as explosive as past seasons but they can still score. On the other side, the Panthers defense (12.8 PPG) has been lights out albeit against offensive units that have struggled. New England is coming off its bye week and bettors should be aware that the team is 9-1 in its last 10 regular season games with rest. During this span, the Patriots have been held under 20 points once and they put up 27 or more points six times. Also, New England is 3-0 both straight up and against the spread versus the NFC South this season, defeating Tampa Bay (23-3), Atlanta (30-23) and New Orleans (30-27). The ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games.

Fearless Predictions

Similar to the non-conference ‘over’ trend mentioned above, we’re starting to heat up as well. After a 4-0 week, the bankroll is now back in the black for $110. We only have seven weeks remaining before the postseason, so let’s get after it. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: San Diego-Miami 45 ½
Best Under: Kansas City-Denver 49
Best Team Total: Over Miami 23

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over 36 ½ San Diego-Miami
Under 58 Kansas City-Denver
Under 62 ½ Philadelphia-Washington


Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
 

  
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