Week 11 Tip Sheet
November 16, 2013
By Kevin Rogers
Lions (-2 ½, 45 ½) at Steelers - 1:00 PM EST
Detroit: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS
Pittsburgh: 3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS
Last week's results: The Lions pulled off a season sweep of the Bears, holding off Chicago in a 21-19 victory at Soldier Field. Detroit picked up its third road win of the season, surpassing its victory total on the highway from last season. The Steelers put together their most complete defensive performance of the season in a 23-10 trouncing of the Bills, limiting Buffalo to 227 yards of offense.
Previous meeting result: Pittsburgh failed to cover as double-digit favorites at Ford Field in 2009, as the Steelers held off the Lions, 28-20. Ben Roethlisberger threw three touchdown passes, while Matthew Stafford missed the game due to injury in his rookie season.
Betting notes: The Lions are just 2-4 SU/ATS in their last six games against AFC opponents, while posting a 3-1 SU/ATS record as a road favorite this season. After going 6-2 the last two seasons against the NFC, the Steelers have lost each of their first two interconference contests this season against the Bears and Vikings.
Redskins at Eagles (-4 ½, 53) - 1:00 PM EST
Washington: 3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS
Philadelphia: 5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS
Last week's results: The Redskins continued their frustrating season after blowing a 13-point lead in a 34-27 defeat at Minnesota. Washington started last season at 3-6 before winning the final seven games to claim the NFC East crown, as the Redskins are in the same spot this season. The Eagles keep dominating on the road, winning their fifth away contest after topping the Packers, 27-13. Philadelphia amazingly enters Sunday's action without a home win this season.
Previous meeting result: The Eagles opened up the Chip Kelly era with a 33-27 triumph at FedEx Field in Week 1 as four-point underdogs. The final score was extremely misleading, as Philadelphia led Washington, 26-7 at halftime, while the Eagles rushed for 263 yards in the victory.
Betting notes: Amazingly, Philadelphia has lost 10 consecutive games at Lincoln Financial Field, while last covering a home contest against the Redskins in the final week of the 2011 season. Washington has cashed just once in five road contests this season, while compiling an 0-2 ATS record against NFC East opponents after a perfect 6-0 ATS mark within the division in 2012.
Ravens at Bears (-3, 43) - 1:00 PM EST
Baltimore: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS
Chicago: 5-4 SU, 2-6-1 ATS
Last week's results: The Ravens snapped a three-game skid by edging the Bengals in overtime, 20-17. Baltimore avoided disaster after allowing the game-tying Hail Mary touchdown to end regulation, but the Ravens did improve to 2-2 inside AFC North play. The Bears fell to 2-4 the last six games following a 3-0 start as Chicago was tripped up at home by Detroit, 21-19.
Previous meeting result: Baltimore dominated Chicago as 10 ½-point home favorites in 2009 with a 31-7 rout. Since the Ravens moved to Baltimore in 1996, the home team in this series have won each of the four meetings, including Chicago's 10-6 triumph in 2005 at Soldier Field.
Betting notes: The Ravens have struggled on the highway with a 1-3 SU/ATS record, while scoring a combined 34 points in their last two away contests. The Bears are 6-0 to the 'over' in games with a total of 49 or less, while going 0-3-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
Chargers (-1 ½, 45 ½) at Dolphins - 4:05 PM EST
San Diego: 4-5 SU, 5-3-1 ATS
Miami: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS
Last week's results: The Dolphins couldn't overcome all the controversy from the Jonathan Martin situation, as Miami lost to previously winless Tampa Bay, 22-19 as short road favorites. Since starting the season at 3-0, the Dolphins have won and covered only once in their last six games. The Chargers fell behind the Broncos by 22 points before managing some late touchdowns in a 28-20 home defeat to Denver. San Diego lost consecutive games for the first time this season after falling in overtime the previous week at Washington.
Previous meeting result: The Chargers cruised past the Dolphins in 2011 as a 6 ½-point home favorite, 26-16. Dating back to 1995, the last nine meetings between these teams have finished 'under' the total, while San Diego is making its first visit to Miami since 2008, when the Dolphins grabbed a 17-10 victory.
Betting notes: After San Diego allowed 61 points in the first two weeks, the Chargers have given up an average of 20.1 points in the last seven games. The Lightning Bolts have played well on the East Coast since last December, winning five of the last six with the lone defeat coming in overtime at Washington. The Dolphins are 3-0-1 to the 'over' at home this season, while yielding at least 20 points in all four home contests.
49ers at Saints (-3, 48) - 4:25 PM EST
San Francisco: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS
New Orleans: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS
Last week's results: The 49ers' offense couldn't get going in a 10-9 home defeat to the red-hot Panthers, failing to cash as six-point favorites. San Francisco saw its five-game winning streak snapped, as the Niners have scored single-digits in each of their three losses. The Saints went up and down the field all over the dreadful Cowboys' defense in a 49-17 stomping of Dallas. New Orleans put up a ridiculous 625 yards of offense, while Drew Brees threw four touchdown passes.
Previous meeting result: In Colin Kaepernick's first career road start, the Niners outlasted the Saints at the Superdome last November, 31-21. San Francisco returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns, while Brees tossed three touchdowns in the defeat. The last three meetings between these teams have gone 'over' the total since 2010, including San Francisco's playoff triumph over New Orleans in 2011.
Betting notes: The Saints have hit the 'over' in four consecutive games, while New Orleans has posted a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS record at the Superdome. San Francisco is 3-1 to the 'over' in four road contests, while the Niners have covered each of their last three away from Candlestick Park.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at email@example.com
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.
11-5 L4 Sundays, +1,340 TY
3-0 Sunday, 7-2 Guarantees TY
7-0 L2 Thurs., 16-6 L22 Totals
3-1 Sun, 11-4 G-Plays, 10-4 Totals
3-0 Week 13, 10-5 L15 G-Plays
20-8 L28 Totals, 26-13 L7 Sundays
11-4 L15 G-Plays, 30-16 L9 Sun.
4 Guaranteed Wins in a Row
12-5 L17 Totals, 27-15 L42 Picks
6-3 Last 9 NFL Selections
10-4 Record Last 4 Sundays
6-3 L9 Picks, 10-4 Totals TY
2-0 Mon., 5-2 L2 Thurs., 13-7 Run
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