Sharp Moves - Week 13
November 29, 2013
By Mike Rose
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 13!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com databases as of Friday morning.
(Rotation #425) Tennessee +3.5 - The Colts can essentially lock up the AFC South title if they can win on Sunday against the Titans, but with the way that Indy has been playing, nothing is a given. It seems too easy to back the division leaders at home laying just a hook more than home field advantage against a team which has been playing with its backup quarterback for the last month or so. Tennessee dominated the first half when these teams met two weeks ago, but it was killed in the second half.
Opening Line: Tennessee +4
Current Line: Tennessee +3.5
Public Betting Percentage: 65% on Indianapolis
(Rotation #444) Houston +7.5 - The Texans have been a brutal disaster for the last two and a half months, losing nine straight games, but they haven't been blown out all that often either. They're getting more than a TD at home against a New England which has to be ready to come down off of the high of coming back from down 24-0 last week at home against the Broncos to win in overtime.
Opening Line: Houston +9.5
Current Line: Houston +7.5
Public Betting Percentage: 76% on New England
(Rotation #438) Miami/New York Over 38.5 - When you look at the raw stats for the Jets and Dolphins, you have to think that this one screams to be an 'under' game. The Jets have scored one TD in their last 31 possessions, and the healthy Dolphins running backs are averaging less than two yards per carry combined in the last month of the season. Both of these teams play stout defense, too. The number isn't moving though, and both meetings last year had at least 39 points.
Opening Line: 38.5
Current Line: 38.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Under
8-0 Run, 15-2 G-Plays, 11-4 Totals
5-0 G-Plays, 11-3 L6 Sun, 16-6 Run
7-2 Week 10, 7-3 G-Plays, +1,183
15-7 GPlays, 26-13 L6 Sun., +2,517
5-2 Week 10, 3-1 L4 Guarantees
5-2 Sun, 23-13 L5 Sundays, +1,562
6-1 Totals, 4-2 Sunday, 13-6 Run
9-2 L11 G-Plays, 4-1 L5 Picks
5-2 L7, 15-7 Guaranteed Plays TY
6-3 L9 G-Plays, 32-17 L8 Sundays
8-3 L4 Sundays, 11-6 L17 Picks
6-2 L8 Picks, 62% +799 Overall
10-5 L3 Sundays, 5-2 L7 G-Plays
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