Sharp Moves - Week 15
December 12, 2013
By Mike Rose
Editor’s Note: Don't miss out on Week 15 Winners from Mike Rose on VegasInsider.com!
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 14!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Thursday morning.
(Rotation #308) Tampa Bay +5 - Most don't realize that Tampa Bay has been one of the best teams in the league over the course of the last five weeks. The Buccaneers are eager to prove they can take on one of the best teams in the league in this stretch, and they have the Niners here for the taking. It's natural for San Fran to lay an egg after winning last week against the Seahawks. It's tough to come down off of that massive high, and the sharp bettors agree with that sentiment.
Opening Line: Tampa Bay +5.5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +5
Public Betting Percentage: 72% on San Francisco
(Rotation #317) Houston +5.5 - It's just a play that doesn't make any sense in the world. The oddsmakers don't hang numbers nearly as high on Houston as they would with some of the other bad teams in the league, so why? The Texans, for one, have lost seven consecutive games by seven points or fewer, so making them more than a touchdown underdog seems a bit crazy. Teams with interim coaches due to coaches being fired have covered five games in a row. Indy has little to play for after already clinching the AFC South, knowing that it really can't do better than the fourth seed in the conference at this point. It would be fitting if Houston ended its longest losing streak in franchise history against the Colts, a team which it has never beaten on the road.
Opening Line: Houston +6
Current Line: Houston +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 75% on Indianapolis
(Rotation #319) Buffalo -2 - It's not often we talk about favorites here on the sharp plays, but the Bills are definitely sharp. Why? Because Jacksonville makes a bunch of sense… almost too much sense. The Bills are coming off of two straight losses where they have turned the ball over a ton, and they really look like they have packed it in for the season. Jacksonville is flying high, and it is coming off of a win that had to feel like the Super Bowl against Houston. On top of that, the Jags have won four out of five, have played solid ball every week since their bye, and seem to have their acts together, and they had a long week of preparation for this one. Still, someone sees something in the Bills, because this line flat out isn't moving, and it's on a number where Jacksonville should be seeing a lot of action.
Opening Line: Buffalo -2
Current Line: Buffalo -2
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on Jacksonville
(Rotation #332) Pittsburgh +2.5 - We hate this play because Pittsburgh is literally always a public play. But in this case, the case for the playoff-bound Bengals is stronger than the case for the general public play known as the Steelers. Most figure that Pittsburgh has given up on the season, and that very well could be the case. Last season though, the Bengals spoiled the Steelers' season on their home field. Sharps are thinking that it might be time to repay the favor.
Opening Line: Pittsburgh +3
Current Line: Pittsburgh +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 68% on Cincinnati
5-1 Playoffs, 14-4 Run, 64% +2,205
10-1 NFL Guaranteed Streak
4-0 LW, 17-5 Totals, +1,652 TY
6-1 L7, 17-6 Run, 9-3 G-Plays
8-1 L9 G-Plays, 10-4 L14 Picks
2-0 Last Sunday, 10-3 G-Plays TY
6-1 Divisional Round Record
2-0 Sunday, 7-2 L9 Guarantees
6-2 Playoffs, 19-9 L28 G-Plays
6-2 Last 8 NFL Guarantees
26-10 Last 36 Over/Unders
3-0 Sunday, 5-1 L6 Selections
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