Sharp Moves - Week 17
December 26, 2013
By Mike Rose
Editor’s Note: Don't miss out on Week 17 Winners from Mike Rose on VegasInsider.com!
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 17!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Thursday morning.
(Rotation #330) San Diego -9 ½ - It's a tough game to bet, because it legitimately might not mean a thing to either of these teams. We have yet to hear from Head Coach Andy Reid as to whether or not his full side will be playing on Sunday or not, but regardless, the Bolts are the rightfully favored side. The Chargers know that losses by both Miami and Baltimore would setup a position where it's win and in, lose and out. Otherwise, this game will just be for the pride of beating a playoff team and finishing above .500. The Chiefs have squat to play for and will end up being the #5 seed regardless.
Opening Line: San Diego -9 ½
Current Line: San Diego -9 ½
Public Betting Percentage: 67% on Kansas City
(Rotation #307) Cleveland +7 - It's tough to believe that the Browns are the sharp team in this game, but here in this situation where the Steelers need a win and a whole heck of a lot of help just to keep their season alive, bettors are going with the public team. Sure, it definitely looks as though Cleveland has given up on the season, but the Steelers flat out just aren't all that good. They had to struggle to take care of the Packers last week on the road, and though Green Bay might very well end up being a playoff team as well, it certainly isn't one of the best 12 sides in the NFL with QB Matt Flynn calling the shots.
Opening Line: Cleveland +7
Current Line: Cleveland +7
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Pittsburgh
(Rotation #107) Jacksonville +11 ½ - The Jaguars know that they have had nothing to play for in quite some time, but they have really been a much better team in the second half of the season than they were in the first half. Indianapolis probably has very little to play for, and though we don't expect that it is going to give up in this game, we wouldn't be surprised if the actual motivation on the field might not be quite as high as it will be next week in the opening round of the playoffs. The Jags were crippled the first time around when these teams met, but that was back in September. The Colts don't have nearly as much to play for barring miracles in the form of losses by New England and Cincinnati this week.
Opening Line: Jacksonville +13
Current Line: Jacksonville +11 ½
Public Betting Percentage: 58% on Indianapolis
11-0 Run, 16-2 G-Plays, 12-4 Totals
6-0 G-Plays, 13-3 L7 Sun, 18-6 Run
3-0 Sun, 11-3 L5 Sundays, 14-6 L20
28-15 L6 Sundays, 62% +1,737 TY
+1,149 NFL Net Profits TY
15-8 L23 G-Plays, +1,974 Overall
3-0 L3 Guarantees, 7-3 L10 Totals
9-2 L11 G-Plays, 4-1 L5 Picks
5-2 L7, 15-7 Guaranteed Plays TY
6-3 L9 G-Plays, 35-20 L9 Sundays
7-3 L10 Picks, 61% +791 Overall
13-7 L4 Sundays, 6-2 L8 G-Plays
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