Title Game Breakdowns
January 13, 2014
By Mike Rose
There are only four teams left standing in the fight for the Lombardi Trophy, and today at VegasInsider.com, we're breaking down the two games remaining with some great trends to remember for each of the games.
#5 San Francisco 49ers vs. #1 Seattle Seahawks
Opening Line: Seattle -3.5 (40)
The Seahawks and the 49ers split the first two games of the season, and the home team has won four straight and nine out of 10 in this series. Seattle has covered three straight games, including beating the number by a hook in a 19-17 loss at Candlestick Park in Week 14. This isn't a series for the faint of heart. These two teams are going to run the ball and run it a ton, and the team which can handle its business at the line of scrimmage the best is the one that will ultimately end up winning this game.
San Francisco has gone 10-1 ATS in its last 11 road games against teams that possess winning home records, and it is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games overall. The team is 37-18-1 ATS over the course of the last almost three complete seasons, and it is 6-3 ATS in its last nine playoff games. The Seahawks have covered four straight home games against teams with winning road records, and the team is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with winning records overall. The Seahawks have covered seven of their last 10 against NFC West teams and six of their last eight games overall.
The 'under' is 7-3 in San Fran's last 10 games overall and it's 5-1 the L/6 times the Niners hit the playoff road. The 'under' has also cashed in six straight Seattle games, but the Seahawks have played to high scorers in six of their L/8 postseason games.
#2 New England Patriots vs. #1 Denver Broncos
Opening Line: Denver -6.5 (54.5)
The Patriots were down 24-0 to the Broncos when these two teams met at Gillette Stadium back in Week 12, but they came storming back to win 34-31 in overtime behind the greatness known as Tom Brady.
This is the fourth meeting between Brady and Peyton Manning in the playoffs in their illustrious careers. The home team has gone 3-0 SU and ATS in the previous three outings, and the team that won that do-or-die match-up also went on to win the Super Bowl.
This edition of the Patriots though, are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 playoff games and 1-5 ATS in their last six played on the road. These Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 overall, though one of those defeats did come at the hands of this exact Patriots squad on the road. New England has failed to cover four straight conference title games as well.
The 'over' is 39-17 in New England's last 56 games against AFC foes, and it is 50-23 in its last 73 played games (68.5%). The 'over' is also 7-2 in the Pats' last nine playoff games. Denver though, has played four straight games 'under' the 'total' over the course of the last month, but the 'over' is 24-6 in the team's last 30 games against teams with winning records.
16-2 G-Plays, 6-1 Totals, 13-7 Picks
5-1 Run, 8-0 L8 Guarantees
6-2 L8 Picks, +2,280 Overall TY
9-3 L12 Picks, +1,685 This Season
4-1 Week 14, 9-2 L11 Picks
9-1 L2 Sundays, 18-9 G-Plays TY
6-2 Sunday, +1,449 Net Profits TY
5-0 Last 5 Guaranteed Run
7-2 G-Plays, 16-7 L10 Sun, 65% TY
11-2 L2 Sundays, 49-24 L12 Sun.
3-1 L4 G-Plays, 5-2 L7 Selections
19-7 Last 26 Guaranteed Plays
5-2 L7 Totals, 8-4 L12 Picks
2-0 Week 14, 3-0 L3 G-Plays
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