Friday's Preseason Tips
August 15, 2014
By Kevin Rogers
Preseason Recap: The home teams have won 15 of the first 17 preseason contests, including Chicago's comeback victory over Jacksonville on Thursday. Home clubs own a 12-4-1 ATS record, as the Bears failed to cover against the Jaguars last night, while the only road teams to win outright have been the Saints (at Rams) and Bills (at Panthers). The 'under' has cashed in 14 of 18 exhibition games (including the Hall of Fame game), including each of the last five contests since last Saturday.
Eagles at Patriots (-2 ½, 47) - 7:30 PM EST
2014 Preseason Records: NE (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS), PHI (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Patriots (+3 ½) beat Eagles, 24-6 in 2013
Week 1 Review: New England was dominated by Washington, 23-6 as Tom Brady rested in the preseason opener for the Pats. The loss snapped a five-game winning streak for New England in exhibition openers. The Eagles fell to the Bears as one-point road favorites, 34-28, as Chicago scored the final 17 points of the contest.
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Joe Nelson - Chip Kelly is now 2-3 S/U and ATS in the preseason and this will be a second straight road game which could take a toll at this stage in the season. New England is 6-3 S/U in the last nine home games in the preseason, averaging 27 points per game. Given Belichick’s respect for Kelly this is a game his team will take seriously and the Patriots should have opportunities early and late in this matchup.
Titans at Saints (-3, 43) - 8:00 PM EST
2014 Preseason Records: TEN (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), NO (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Titans (+4 ½) beat Saints, 10-6 in 2012
Week 1 Review: The Saints outlasted the Rams as short road underdogs, 26-24, as New Orleans was just one of two teams (Buffalo) to win on the highway last week. The Titans held off the Packers in a driving rainstorm in Nashville, 20-16 as -2 ½-point favorites.
Expert Handicapper Analysis: Doc's Sports - Never like to lay this many points in the exhibition season, but New Orleans played to win in game 1 and I see that trend continuing in Week 2. Hard to take away much from the Tennessee–Green Bay game since weather played a role, but playing in the Superdome is always a factor that greatly favors the home team. Drew Brees did not play in Week 1 and the Saints still managed to complete 27 of their 40 passes. New Orleans wins this game by double digits.
Lions at Raiders (-2 ½, 39) - 10:00 PM EST
2014 Preseason Records: DET (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), OAK (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Raiders (+3) beat Lions, 31-20 in 2012
Week 1 Review: The Raiders fell to the Vikings as three-point underdogs, 10-6, as Oakland scored a late touchdown and failed on a two-point conversion in the final minutes. The Lions rallied past the Browns, 13-12 to cash as 1 ½-point home underdogs, as the lone touchdown came in the contest came by Detroit with 1:05 remaining.
Expert Handicapper Analysis: The Gold Sheet - The Oakland coaching staff is fighting for its job this season and was very upset with the team's poor performance last week at Minnesota, as evidenced by the team's several fights this week while scrimmaging with Dallas. Detroit is not very deep on defense, especially in the secondary, which should yield opportunities to new Oakland No. 1 QB Matt Schaub, impressive rookie Derek Carr, and young veteran Matt McGloiin. New Detroit coach Jim Caldwell is from the Tony Dungy "low key" school of thought in preseason, with Caldwell going only 4-8 vs. the spread while head coach at Indianapolis and only 1-5 vs. the spread as a visitor.
Chargers at Seahawks (-6, 38 ½) - 10:00 PM EST
2014 Preseason Records: SD (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS), SEA (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Previous Preseason Meeting: Seahawks (-3) beat Chargers, 31-10 in 2013
Week 1 Review: Seattle's eight-game preseason winning streak came to an end in a Super Bowl rematch with Denver, as the Seahawks lost 21-16 as one-point road favorites. The Chargers cruised past the beat-up Cowboys, 27-7 as 3 ½-point home favorites, snapping a two-game home losing streak in the preseason.
Expert Handicapper Analysis: James Manos - It's obvious that Seahawks HC Pete Carroll takes the preseason seriously as he's gone 21-13 SU and 24-10 ATS in his NFL preseason coaching appearances, including going 8-0 SU combined in 2012 and 2013. The Seahawks did lose their preseason opener this season at Denver, but that was a huge revenge setup for the Broncos, and anyone who really watched the game could see that both coaches were making an effort to WIN. This will be Seattle's first home game since winning the Super Bowl and they should be welcomed by the loud and racous crowd that give the Seahawks the best homefield advantage in the NFL. The Chargers enter off demolishing Dallas and San Diego accomplished all it's goals in that game.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at email@example.com
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