Pick Six - Week 10
November 9, 2017
By Kevin Rogers
Week 9 Record: 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS
Overall Record: 27-27 SU, 23-30-1 ATS
Vikings (-1 ½, 42 ½) at Redskins – 1:00 PM EST
Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1
The Vikings return from the bye week seeking their fifth consecutive victory after pulling away from the winless Browns in London two weeks ago, 33-16 as 11-point favorites. Minnesota’s defense continues to shut opponents down by allowing 17 points or less in six straight games, while outgaining each of those teams during this stretch. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was added to the active roster, but Case Keenum will remain the starter as he seeks his first 300-yard passing game since Week 2.
Record: 4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1
The Redskins went to the west coast for the second time this season and knocked off an NFC contender for the second time. After defeating the Rams in Week 2, Washington pulled the trick again last week in a 17-14 triumph as eight-point underdogs at Seattle. That victory put an end to a two-game losing streak, as the ‘Skins improved to 4-1 against teams outside the NFC East. Washington and Minnesota have hooked up six times in the last seven seasons as the Vikings have captured four of those six matchups.
Best Bet: Redskins + 1 ½
Chargers at Jaguars (-3 ½, 41) – 1:00 PM EST
Record: 3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1
The Lightning Bolts have thrived on the highway this season compared to their new home in Carson. Los Angeles is 2-2 SU and 2-1-1 ATS away from southern California, including underdog victories over the Giants and Raiders. The Chargers are back from the bye week following a 21-13 setback at New England in Week 8 as 6 ½-point underdogs to halt a three-game losing streak. This series has been owned by the Chargers, who have won six straight meetings with the Jaguars since 2010, including a 38-14 blowout of Jacksonville last season in San Diego.
Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1
The Jaguars’ defense continues to dominate as Jacksonville has allowed single-digits in each of its five victories. Jacksonville picked up consecutive wins for the first time this season in last week’s 23-7 rout of Cincinnati as six-point favorites, while cashing the UNDER for the third time in the past four games. Jaguars’ running back Leonard Fournette is expected to return to the lineup after missing last week’s win due to a violation of team rules.
Best Bet: Chargers +3 ½
Bengals at Titans (-4 ½, 40 ½) – 1:00 PM EST
Record: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 100/1
The Bengals entered last week’s game at Jacksonville winners of three of their past four contests. However, wide receiver A.J. Green was ejected in the first quarter following a fight with Jacksonville’s Jalen Ramsey and the Bengals’ offense couldn’t get anything going in a 23-7 loss. For the third time this season, Cincinnati was held to 10 points or less, while the Bengals accumulated only 148 yards of offense. Cincinnati and Tennessee have met just twice since 2009 with the Bengals winning each time as the previous matchup came in 2014 at Paul Brown Stadium, 33-7.
Record: 5-3 SU, 3-4-1 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 25/1
The Titans are heating up of late by pulling off three straight wins, including each of the past two by three points each. Tennessee held off Baltimore last week at home, 23-20, while eclipsing the OVER for the third straight time at Nissan Stadium. Five of the next six opponents for the Titans are currently below .500, although four of those games are away from Nashville. Tennessee has won seven of its last eight home contests dating back to last season.
Best Bet: Titans -4 ½
Saints (-2 ½, 46 ½) at Bills – 1:00 PM EST
Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1
The 0-2 start by the Saints seems like a long time ago as New Orleans has built a six-game winning streak to take over first place in the NFC South. New Orleans has also covered each time during this hot stretch, while coming off a pair of home victories over Chicago and Tampa Bay. Since losing the opener at Minnesota, the Saints are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS away from the Superdome, while posting an incredible 12-2 ATS mark in their last 14 road games since December 2015.
Record: 5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 66/1
The Bills were tripped up by the Jets last Thursday, 34-21 to fall to 1-3 on the road. However, Buffalo has yet to lose at New Era Field this season by compiling a 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS record, while putting up over 30 points in each of its last two home wins. The Bills have been outgained in the yardage category in seven straight games, but have covered in each of their two games as an underdog against NFC South opponents this season (Panthers and Falcons). Buffalo has dropped each of the past four meetings with New Orleans since 2001, including a 35-17 loss at the Superdome in 2013.
Best Bet: Bills +2 ½
Cowboys at Falcons (-3, 50 ½) – 4:25 PM EST
Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-3 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1
The Cowboys have rebounded from a minor two-game losing streak in early October by winning three straight contests. Dallas took care of Kansas City last Sunday, 28-17 as 2 ½-point favorites, highlighted by two touchdown passes and a touchdown run by quarterback Dak Prescott. The Cowboys were blown out in their first road games of the season at Denver, but are rolling away from the Lone Star State by beating the Cardinals, 49ers, and Redskins in their last three road contests.
Record: 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS, 5-3 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 33/1
The Falcons didn’t seem to have a Super Bowl hangover following a fast 3-0 start. However, the Falcons have been grounded lately by dropping four of their last five games, including a 20-17 defeat at Carolina last week in their NFC South opener. Atlanta squandered a 10-0 lead, while being held to 17 points or less in all four losses this season. The Falcons erased a 21-7 deficit in a 39-28 victory at Dallas in their last meeting two seasons ago, highlighted by a 12-catch, 164-yard, two-touchdown performance by wide receiver Julio Jones.
Best Bet: Falcons -3
Giants (-2 ½, 42) at 49ers – 4:25 PM EST
Record: 1-7 SU, 3-5 ATS, 4-4 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 250/1
Amazing to think that these two teams met for the NFC Championship in 2011, but as they say, life comes at you fast. New York is coming off a humiliating 51-17 home loss to the Rams last week to fall to 0-4 SU/ATS at Met Life Stadium this season. However, the Giants haven’t been horrible on the highway as their only victory this season is at Denver, while covering three straight on the road. The Giants are making their first appearance ever at Levi’s Stadium, while traveling to the Bay Area for the first time since a 26-3 blowout of the Niners in 2012.
Record: 0-9 SU, 4-5 ATS, 5-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 5000/1
The 49ers acquired quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo at the trade deadline, but are in no rush to play the former Patriots’ backup. San Francisco is still searching for its first win under Kyle Shanahan after dropping a 20-10 home decision to Arizona last week. Following a 4-1 ATS run which included five losses by three points or less, the Niners have failed to score more than 10 points in each of the past three games, while losing each time by double-digits.
Best Bet: 49ers +2 ½
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at firstname.lastname@example.org
Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.
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