VegasInsider.com
VI Mobile Scores and Betting OddsVI Mobile Scores and Betting Odds Be Social
Home
NFL
NBA
NHL
MLB
NCAA FB
NCAA BK
Golf
Auto
Horses
Soccer
BOX/MMA
More
Betting Tools

 
Divisional Playoff Trends
Editor's Note: Check out more NFL winners from Bruce Marshall on VegasInsider.com. Click to win!

The NFL Divisional Playoff Round games have historically been fertile territory for home teams and favorites (almost always one and the same), their dominance has not been especially pronounced recent years.

Indeed, since the 2004 postseason, road underdogs stand 30-22-2 against the spread in these playoff games, though home chalk was 4-3-1 the last two seasons.

Remember some dynamics worth mentioning that are unique to this round.

Advertisement
Since 1990, when the playoffs expanded from 10 teams to 12, all Division Round hosts are off a “bye” and a week of rest.

And almost all of the “powerhouse” NFL teams in recent memory are from that first-round “bye” group, including 59 of the last 74 Super Bowl participants since ’78 (when the first-round “bye” was introduced).

At least one top conference seed has also met defeat in six of the past nine seasons, though top seeds Denver (AFC) & Carolina (NFC) won all of the way thru their respective conference playoffs a year ago.

Also identifiable in the past with this round are one-sided results, which have recurred with regularity over the decades.

In fact, since 1975, more than half of these games have been decided by double-digit margins.

Favored teams laying a TD or more (usually representing the cream of the NFL crop) have covered at a 55% clip (45-37-3) in the Division Round since ‘75, and covered their only chance a year ago (Patriots over Texans).

A recent Division Round trend note has been on the “totals” side, in particular “over” tickets, which are now 19-9 since the 2010 playoffs after a 3-1 mark in the 2016 playoffs.

Following are the point-spread results in various spread categories of NFL Division Round playoff games since 1975.

Our “charting” begins with the ’75 season because, prior to then, playoff home teams were predetermined in a divisional rotation, as opposed to the better won-loss record.

A “margin of victory” chart for the games since 1975 is included as well.

Point-Spread Results (1975-2017)
Category Result
Favorites vs. line 84-78-5 (1 pick)
Favorites straight up 117-50
Favored by 0-3 points 11-16-1
Favored by 3½-6½ points 28-25-1
Favored by 7-9½ points 28-26-2
Favored by 10-13½ points 13-8
Favored by 14 points or more 4-3-1
Home teams straight up 119-49
Home teams vs. spread 85-78-5
Home favorites vs. spread 80-75-5
Home underdogs vs. spread 4-3
Home picks vs. spread 1-0
Over/Under (since 1986) 68-56


MARGINS OF VICTORY (1975-2017)
Margin Result
1-3 points 38
4-6 points 15
7-10 points 31
11-13 points 14
14 points or more 70


  
HEADLINES
· YouWager.eu: Games to Watch - Week 7
· Bookmaker: Week 7 Best Bets - Totals
· Bookmaker: Week 7 Best Bets - Sides
· Bookmaker: Underdog Plays - Week 7
· BetDSI: Ugly Dogs - Week 7
· YouWager.eu: Teams to Watch - Week 7
· BetDSI: Patriots at Bears
· Broncos crush Cardinals, 45-10
· With Tannehill out, Lions expect run
MORE HEADLINES
 
Why Buy Picks From VegasInsider.com
NFL Pro Football Handicapper Sports Picks Records
NFL Hot Streaks
5-0 +555 Sunday, 6-1 G-Plays TY
14-7 Sun., 36-16 Oct., 8-2 G-Plays
16-7 L3 Sun., 9-2 L6 Thurs., +1,776
14-5 Win Streak, 15-5 L4 Sundays
5-1 L6 G-Plays, 15-7 L22 Picks
4-0 Sunday, 2-0 L2 Guarantees
3-0 Sunday, 6-1 Record L2 Sundays
4-1 L5, 10-3 Streak, 6-2 G-Plays
12-4 L4 Sundays, 17-6 NFL Streak
6-3 Sunday, 4-0 Totals, 2-0 G-Plays
4-2 Sunday, 10-5 Over/Unders TY
10-2 G-Plays TY, 8-4 L12 Totals
2-0 Sunday, 8-3 Run, 6-2 G-Plays
10-3 Streak, 21-11 (66%) +899 TY
5-1 L6 Guarantees, 9-3 L12 Picks
21-12 L33 Picks, 61% +1,105 TY
3-1 Last Sunday, 13-7 L20 Totals
4-0 L4 Thursdays, 18-8 L26 GPlays
9-4 G-Plays, 8-4 L3 Sun., 19-11 Run
6-2 L8 Picks, 3-1 L4 Guarantees
4-1 L5 Guaranteed Plays
11-4 NFL Guarantees TY
4-1 L5 G-Plays, 8-4 L2 Sundays
NFL Pro Football Expert Sports Picks - Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers
2018 NFL SEASON PICK RECORDS
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
Micah Roberts + 1976
Hank Goldberg + 995
Doc's Sports + 899
Last Week's Leaders
Handicapper Money
Antony Dinero + 776
John Fisher + 555
Zack Cimini + 400
Percentage Leaders
Handicapper Pct
Doc's Sports 66 %
Micah Roberts 64 %
Paul Bovi 63 %
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Bill Marzano + 880
Bruce Marshall + 700
Gary Bart + 550
Over-Under Leaders
Handicapper Money
Jimmy Boyd + 538
Scott Rickenbach + 468
Paul Bovi + 450
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
Micah Roberts + 1070
Doc's Sports + 679
Stephen Nover + 490
MORE PICK RECORDS
  
corner graphic
With a VI Gold Membership, you can SAVE 20% off Daily Pick packages, SAVE 10% off a Live Odds Pro subscription, and receive access to up to 1,000 Member Plays each month!
VI Gold Membership