Opening Line Report – Week 4
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
In addition, Week 4 features the first of the byes, as the Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins get the first in-season rests.
(Consensus Odds as of Tuesday)
Thursday, Sept. 27
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 49)
It's amazing how much of a difference one week makes. The Vikings were on fire, laying the most points of the 2018 season against the Buffalo Bills (-17) in Week 3. It appeared we were on pace for a potential playoff preview featuring a pair of 3-0 SU teams. A funny thing happened, however, as the Bills remembered how to play professional football -- and no one retired this week.
The Rams are favored by nearly a touchdown, but they have issues in the secondary. CB Aqib Talib might need corrective surgery for a high-ankle sprain, and CB Marcus Peters (calf) is also dinged up. The line opened at 6 1/2 at most shops, with Treasure Island opening this game at -6 before getting in line with everyone else. Westgate Superbook and William Hill opened at -7, but are also at 6 1/2 as of Tuesday morning.
Sunday, Sept. 30
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7, 47.5)
The Dolphins are unbeaten on the season and against the number, but they head to Foxboro as decisive underdogs with Vegas not respecting their three opening wins. That's probably because the Fins haven't won in Foxboro since Sept. 21, 2008, a span of nine seasons. New England is 7-2 ATS during the nine-game home win streak against their AFC East rivals.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 47)
The Texans limp into Lucas Oil Stadium looking for their first victory of the season. They might still be searching for a win after the weekend, as they are just 2-7 SU/3-5-1 ATS in their past nine trips to Indianapolis. The total might also seem rather high considering the 'under' has connected in nine straight meetings in Indy.
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 51)
The Bengals were aiming to go unbeaten through three, but they were unable to break the bank in Charlotte against the Panthers. If you're feeling the Falcons, Mirage-MGM opened the line at -5 1/2, and still had it there as of Tuesday morning. Where there has been movement is on the total, opening at MGM at 50 1/2, bumping up to 51 1/2 in just a few hours.
Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-10, 45.5)
The Bills changed the course of their season with a stunning upset win in Minnesota last week, and now they're look to win as a double-digit 'dog for the second straight week. All Vegas books have the Packers at 10 or higher, but you can still get in on the Pack at -9 1/2 at Treasure Island. There might be some doubt about the Packers, though, as QB Aaron Rodgers were limping noticeably in last week's loss in D.C. and bettors might be just one hit away from QB DeShone Kizer time.
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 43.5)
The Lions gained the first win for new head coach Matt Patricia, dropping mentor Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots on Sunday night. The line is a field goal across the board all except Westgate has the 'Boys at -3.5, while Treasure Island has the home team at just - 2 1/2 as of Tuesday AM.
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, 38)
One week the Jags looked like a Super Bowl contender, then a 9-6 loss against the Tennessee Titans and their backup quarterback makes you wonder about their staying power. Vegas feels confident they'll rebound, especially against a team which lost to the lowly Cleveland Browns, ending their 18-game losing skid.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 48)
'Fitz-magic' ran out on Monday night against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers and now we get a chance to see how they rebound against the Bears D. There are some questions about the QB here, as Jameis Winston is eligible to return from a three-game suspension. Of course, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for 400 or more yards in three straight -- becoming the first-ever QB to accomplish the feat in NFL history. Surely there won't be a change, right?
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 41.5) at Tennessee Titans The defending champs got their QB Carson Wentz back last week after a torn ACL last November shelved him until last Sunday. Philly won, but they failed to cover against an AFC South team, the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans grinded out a 9-6 win in 'Sacksonville', but they also have some QB questions with Blaine Gabbert in the concussion protocol and Marcus Mariota thrust into action despite an elbow issue.
Seattle Seahawks (-3, 38.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Seahawks and Cardinals love to win on each other's field. The visiting team is 8-1-1 SU over the past 10 meetings in this series, and the Cardinals are 0-4-1 SU/ATS in their past five home games against the 'Hawks. The 'under' is also 3-0 in the past three meetings in this series. That's likely why everyone book has Seattle laying a field goal, with the line opening at -3 1/2 at Mirage-MGM.
Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-2.5, 45)
The Browns got off the schneid last week with a win over the Jets, while the Raiders are still searching for their first win in the second installment of Chucky-mania. The books aren't buying into the late-game heroics of rookie QB Baker Mayfield last week, favoring the winless Raiders at home.
Bettors love the Raiders, particularly at Westgate and William Hill. The Browns opened as a pick 'em at Westgate, but bettors pushed the Raiders all the way up - 2 1/2 before leveling off with some money coming in on Cleveland to knock it down to two. William Hill opened at -1 in favor of Oakland, and it's up to -2 1/2 as of Tuesday morning. If you're feeling Mayfield and the second-place Browns, check out the global books, where [...] has the Browns catching three points.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5, 47.5)
The 49ers are reeling after losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo to a torn ACL, and the road team is a double-digit favorite across the board. With offensive issues, the total might be a bit high, but it is holding steady at 47 1/2 at the Golden Nugget and the Wynn.
New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 50) at New York Giants
The Saints rolled up 40-plus points for the second time in three games with a win at Atlanta last week. However, they will be heading outside into the elements for the first time in 2018, while the Giants are trying to follow up a win for the first time in 2018. The early money is on the Saints, with the line opening at -3 and bumping to -3 1/2 at Peppermill, Stratosphere and Southpoint, as well as Westgate.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 48.5)
The Steelers picked up their first win of the season in Tampa, and face a quick turnaround with their rival Ravens visiting the Steel City on Sunday night. The home team is 8-2 SU over the past 10 home games, but the Steelers are 0-2-1 ATS over their past thre at home against Baltimore. The 'over' is 3-1 in the past four meetings in Heinz Field, and that might be an attractive play considering the Steelers defense cannot seem to stop anyone. The 'over' is 3-0 for Pittsburgh so far, averaging 29.3 PPG on offense while allowing 30.0 PPG on defense.
Monday, Oct. 1
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, 55.5) at Denver Broncos
The juggernaut Chiefs have been on fire, scoring at least 38 points in each of their three games. They say defense wins championships, and that's an area K.C. will need to work on if they want to be title contenders. The Chiefs have allowed at least 27 points in each game this season, allowing an average of 30.7 PPG. The Golden Nugget and Stations are particularly high on the Chiefs, opening them at -5.
Where to place a bet this NFL Season?
- Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
- Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
- Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.
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