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NFL

MNF – Redskins at Saints

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
LAST WEEK

The Redskins (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) were one of two teams to have their bye week in Week 4 as Washington will be well-rested heading to the Big Easy. Washington rebounded from a 12-point home loss to Indianapolis to pound Green Bay in Week 3 as short home underdogs, 31-17. The Redskins jumped out to a 28-10 halftime lead behind two touchdown passes from Alex Smith and two short touchdown runs by Adrian Peterson.

The future Hall of Fame running back rushed for a season-best 120 yards, while Smith put together his second multi-touchdown passing game of the season. The Redskins improved to 2-0 SU/ATS as an underdog this season, but own a 6-6 ATS mark when receiving points since the start of 2017. Washington moved to 5-2 in its past seven home games against teams outside the NFC East, while scoring its most points at FedEx Field since dropping 42 on Green Bay in 2016.

The Saints (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) return home following a pair of road victories over the Falcons and Giants. New Orleans scored four times in the second quarter, but none of those scores were touchdowns as it led New York, 12-7 at halftime. The Saints pulled away in the second half thanks to a pair of Alvin Kamara touchdown runs to beat the Giants, 33-18 to cash as 3 ½-point road favorites.

New Orleans put up seven scores for the second consecutive week, while Kamara reached the end zone three times in a game for the first time in his career. Drew Brees threw for a season-low 217 yards and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 2018. Brees is one of two starting quarterbacks that has yet to throw an interception this season along with Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes.

NOT SO SUPER AT THE DOME

The Saints have struggled to cover numbers at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome this season by failing to cover against the Buccaneers and Browns. Granted, both those games closed with New Orleans laying 10 points each, but the Saints own a 2-5 ATS record in its past seven home contests. However, the Saints are 5-2 ATS since the start of 2017 as a single-digit home favorite with one of those non-covers coming against the Redskins last November.

SERIES HISTORY

Washington has covered six consecutive matchups with New Orleans dating back to 2006, including last season’s 34-31 overtime defeat at the Superdome. The Redskins grabbed a commanding 31-16 fourth quarter lead on Kirk Cousins’ third touchdown pass of the day, but the Saints would even things up in the final three minutes. Brees hit Josh Hill for a short touchdown pass, followed by a Brees to Kamara 18-yard connection. Kamara ran in the ensuing two-point conversion to tie the game at 31-31, while Wil Lutz knocked in a 28-yard field goal to win it for New Orleans in overtime.

The Redskins cashed as 9 ½-point underdogs, while the past five meetings with the Saints have sailed OVER the total. Washington last won in New Orleans in the 2012 opener, 40-32 in Robert Griffin III’s coming-out party as the Heisman Trophy winner threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns (including an 88-yard strike) in the victory.

TOTAL TALK

In spite of several high-scoring outputs, the Saints are 2-2 to the OVER, as last week’s game against the Giants barely finished UNDER the total of 51 ½. The Redskins went UNDER the total in each of the first two weeks before busting out for an OVER against the Packers. Washington started last season with a 5-1 OVER mark on the road, but each of the past three games away from FedEx Field have gone UNDER. The Saints are currently on a 5-2 OVER run the last seven home contests, while scoring at least 31 points five times in this span.

UNDER THE LIGHTS

The Saints are winless in their last three Monday night affairs since 2015, including home defeats to Detroit (2015) and Atlanta (2016). New Orleans fell in the Monday night opener at Minnesota last season, 29-19 as its most recent Monday victory came in 2014 at Chicago. The Redskins haven’t fared much better on Mondays by posting a dreadful 1-8 SU/ATS record since 2014, including a pair of losses to Kansas City and Philadelphia.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson weighs on the first quarter of the Saints’ season, “Ryan Fitzpatrick lit up the New Orleans defense in Week 1 for a 48-40 loss for the Saints at home and the Saints had narrow escapes against the Browns and Falcons before a slightly more comfortable win against the Giants last week. New Orleans has been a great finisher this season with 68 points in four games after the start of the fourth quarter.”

From a defensive standpoint, the Redskins will hope to not only shut down the Saints, but also score on New Orleans according to Nelson, “The biggest statistical mismatch in this contest appears to be pass defense with Washington second in the NFL allowing just 5.4 yards per attempt while New Orleans is last in the NFL allowing 9.6 yards per attempt. The schedule has played a role but New Orleans has allowed 11 passing touchdowns while getting only one interception this season.”

GAME PROPS - Courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas Superbook

Total Completions – Alex Smith
OVER 23 ½ (-110)
UNDER 23 ½ (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes – Alex Smith
OVER 1 ½ (-140)
UNDER 1 ½ (+120)

Total Gross Passing Yards – Drew Brees
OVER 300 ½ (-110)
UNDER 300 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Drew Brees
OVER 2 (-160)
UNDER 2 (+140)

Total Rushing Yards – Alvin Kamara
OVER 66 ½ (-110)
UNDER 66 ½ (-110)

Will Michael Thomas score a touchdown?
YES (+105)
UNDER (-125)

LINE MOVEMENT

The Saints opened up as seven-point favorites, but that number has dipped down 6 ½ at some books and even down to six at a majority of outfits. The total opened at 52 ½ and has stayed steady at that number with several books bumping the total up to 53.

You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com

Kevin Rogers can be followed on Twitter at virogers.

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