Week 6 Best Bets - Sides
October 11, 2018
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Week 6 NFL Best Bets – Sides
Week 5's Best Bets brought a split and some lost juice as the Titans ended up getting victimized by the letdown spot, while Cleveland, as Cleveland likes to do, had the sweat running the entire afternoon before they finally came away with the OT victory. Splitting your selections is never great, but it's also never horrible, so hopefully we can put that behind us quickly here and get the brooms out with these two plays this week:
Odds per - Bookmaker.eu
Best Bet #1: Miami Dolphins +3.5
In today's “what have you done lately” world, the Miami Dolphins are currently one of the worst teams in the NFL. It was just two weeks ago that they were a 3-0 SU team heading to New England trying to grab a statement win. While a blowout loss in Foxborough, followed by an epic 17-0 2nd half collapse at Cincinnati last week, the Dolphins have become a team many are looking to fade now. This week they are home dogs against a rested Chicago Bears team who have done nothing but look pretty good so far in 2018.
Consecutive losses in the fashion they happened has really hurt their market perception. At 3-2 SU now many are questioning if the Dolphins simply got off to a hot start because who had they really played. Miami beat Tennessee in a 9-hour lightning delayed marathon and then got by the Jets and Raiders, not exactly a Murderer's Row of opponents I get it.
But they were basically TD underdogs in New England and Cincinnati, so can you really say the end results are all that surprising? Yes, the fashion that those defeats happened plays a part, but if Miami had traded TD scores all game with the Pats and Bengals and then lost by 7 at the end both times ( to lose SU and ATS too) would the market be as down as they are on them this week? I highly doubt it, and let me ask you this, who have the Bears really played?
Chicago went into their bye week on a 3-0 SU run having just beat down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a 48-10 final. Chicago's also got a two-point win over Arizona, and a seven-point win vs Seattle on their resume, to go along with that massive blown lead vs Green Bay in Week 1. But Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Arizona isn't exactly a Murderer's Row of opponents either, especially when your win over Seattle isn't in Seattle. Not to mention, bye weeks can act as the vicious silent momentum killer for a team because the hunger to win dissipates during that time off as the ego gets bloated with adoration.
For the market to be that high on the Bears in this spot to push the opener of -1 all the way through the key number of -3 and to -3.5 is a complete overreaction to Miami's recent results. Maybe most of these bettors got burned by the Dolphins a week ago, I don't know, but the Bears haven't won anything but a few games they were expected too against some bad NFL teams. If it was strictly a post-bye thing we'd have likely seen Carolina's number move as well, but it's stayed constant basically since open.
This move is a clear one where Miami's getting completely overlooked and undervalued based on recent results, specifically the matter in how they lost, not that they lost, while the Bears, who are already a little overvalued in this spot (post-bye, three-game winning streak), get even more inflated in the process. I'll gladly take the points with the home dog here.
Odds per - Bookmaker.eu
Best Bet #2: L.A. Chargers -1
The Cleveland Browns have been a great bet so far this year as bettors are either 4-0-1 or 4-1 ATS by backing the Browns blindly this season. Admittedly, “backing the Browns blindly” is not a phrase I'd ever thought I'd write, but there is no denying that Cleveland has been a sound ATS wager this year and has rewarded those loyal/faithful/ballsy enough to back them in 2018.
However, there comes a point in every NFL season where recent runs of success (either SU or ATS) or failures for NFL teams infect the perception level of said team to such a degree that the point spreads on those squads start to get out of whack and it's time to start looking the other way. Whether it's regression or not, that's the type of spot I believe we've got with Cleveland here.
The Browns have been able to cash tickets this year because they've been in so many close games. Just playing competitive football each week and scoring a few wins in the process is a long overdue, welcome sign to Cleveland fans. But you know what Cleveland fans haven't seen yet in 2018 that's long overdue? A Cleveland blowout defeat.
This game might not be a blowout in the Chargers favor, but at -1 does it really half to be? Philip Rivers and the Chargers have had their problems with Cleveland in recent years, as it was the Chargers who were the Browns opponent in their last win prior to this year (Dec 24, 2016), and the Browns have actually gone 3-0 ATS the past three years in games against L.A. And while those results do work as support for a Browns play in the eyes of many, I view it as those results show that there is a next to nothing shot that this Chargers team takes Cleveland lightly – as they probably did in the past – especially now that Cleveland has become a competitive team.
L.A. also just beat down and shut down an Oakland Raiders team that hung 45 points on this Cleveland Browns defense, and I haven't even got to the part about a potential letdown on the Browns side after beating a division rival for the first time in forever.
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