Week 6 Best Bets - Parlay
October 12, 2018
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NFL Week 6 Exotic Betting Options
The perfect record on these teasers this year stayed in tact with last week's play on the Bengals and Seahawks, although hitting on the Bengals was a little lucky. How Miami doesn't cover a +6.5 full game number when they entered the 4th up 17-3 is beyond me, but I'll gladly take the win and move on to this week.
Week 6 should be a good one given how many point spreads are lined at -3.5 or lower, and with the bulk of them currently sitting at +2.5 or lower, the solid teaser options become fewer and fewer. You always like to tease teams through +7 and +10 if you can, and that just can't happen as often with these current numbers. So that perfect teaser record is going to last another week, as this week things get changed up a bit.
With so many tight spreads across the board, a money line parlay looks like the better option to back this week, so let's get right to it:
Odds per - BetOnline.ag
Week 6: Two-team ML Teaser Best Bet
Indianapolis ML (+115) – Pittsburgh (+100) = +330 odds overall
The young New York Jets were able to return home with an impressive win over Denver a week ago, but I don't think we see two straight from them here. The Colts have had extra rest after that TNF loss up in New England, and while Indy is still a banged up squad, the extra time off never hurts, especially if they do end up getting RB Marlon Mack back this week. Even just having the threat of a consistent running attack helps take the heat of QB Andrew Luck, but the Colts should be able to take this game outright either way.
Indy knows that their record could be a lot better than the 1-4 SU mark they've got, yet, even with how bad it's been, they still are capable of getting back into the race in the AFC South. Falling to 1-5 with a loss to this Jets team with a rookie QB likely kills all chances of saving the season for Indy, and after a couple of down years in a row, Indy can't afford to waste another year of Luck's prime this early on in the campaign.
Don't let last week's win over Denver by New York skew your long term perspective of a Jets team that still had one of the lowest season win totals in the league. The Jets took advantage of a great situational spot they were in last week against Denver and that was it. They are a team still learning how to win, and with Indy essentially fighting for their season, I don't believe the Jets have what it takes to battle through that and make it two in a row.
Pittsburgh is another team that's basically fighting to save their 2018 season this week as a loss to the first place Cincinnati Bengals would have them three full games back of top spot (essentially 3.5) and looking at a steep uphill climb just to make the playoffs. But this Steelers team is too talented to already have this season blow up in their face – even more than it already has in Pittsburgh with the off-field drama – and this is exactly the type of game the Steelers have won in the Big Ben era: Beat the Bengals when things are going good for Cincinnati.
Last week I wrote about how the Bengals never get caught looking ahead to Pittsburgh games as they are now 9-0 SU (8-1 ATS) the past four years + one game the week before Steelers games. But you know what Cincinnati's record was in those eight games against Pittsburgh the following week? 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS.
Things haven't even been that good for the Bengals the past two years, but Pittsburgh continues to beat the Bengals like the little brother Steelers fans view them as. The Bengals have looked great in this 4-1 SU start, but just like in the past when bettors/fans start believing in Cincy, that belief tends to get crushed in a hurry and usually around the time a Steelers game is on the horizon.
That's what we've got with this matchup, as Pittsburgh is really playing for everything right now and can't afford to drop a game to anyone. The fact that it's Cincinnati on the other side of the field is only added motivation for Pittsburgh to show up and beat down this hated rival one more time. At an underdog price, with the better team that's underperformed so far, it's the only way to go.
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