Opening Line Report - Week 11
November 13, 2018
By Joe Williams
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It's Week 11 of the National Football League regular season and we get the most highly anticipated game of the year, as well as a potential Super Bowl preview. And, the game is being played in Mexico City, of course. How disappointing is that for fans of the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams, that neither of these home fan bases get to see this marquee matchup in their home stadium?
On the undercard, the Houston Texans and Washington Redskins is a sleeper game on the Sunday early window. It's a battle of first-place teams in the AFC South and NFC East. Who would have thought this would be an important battle earlier in the season? The Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints is also an interesting battle, albeit one of the teams being below .500. It's still the defending champs on the rope trying desperately to stay in the playoff chase.
(Consensus Odds as of Tuesday)
Thursday, Nov. 15
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5, 49)
There has been very little movement on this game so far, with the Seahawks listed at -2 1/2 across all shops except for Treasure Island, as you can still catch the 'Hawks at -2. For a Thursday game, there has been very little movement on the total, too. The over/under is listed at 49 1/2 at most shops, with Atlantis as the outlier at 49.
Sunday, Nov. 18
Carolina Panthers (-4, 51) at Detroit Lions
The Panthers were on the move last week, quietly sauntering into the Steel City as a very under-the-radar 6-2 record. Carolina had their doors blown off by the Pittsburgh Steelers, coughing up 52 points. That shouldn't be a problem against the Lions, a team struggling in all facets of the game.
The money has been on the Panthers, perhaps since they looked so bad last time out and they have had a couple of extra days to prepare since last Thursday. The Stratosphere opened the line at -3 1/2, but it quickly moved up to -4 to get in line with most other shops. If you're loving the Panthers, you can still try Treasure Island, who had Carolina at -3 as of Monday afternoon.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47.5)
The Cowboys are coming off a potential season-saving win on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Falcons had their doors blown off on the road by the lowly Cleveland Browns. Bettors are apparently feeling the 'Boys, down from -3 1/2 to -3 at Jerry's Nugget, while dropped from -4 1/2 to -3 1/2 at Westgate Superbook.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4, OFF)
The underdog has connected in seven of the past nine in this series, while the Bengals have posted a 7-3 ATS in the past 10 in this series. The line is available offshore at Sportsbook.ag, opening at -3 1/2, bumping up to -4 1/2, and then back down to -4. It isn't available at most shops with the availability of QB Joe Flacco up in the air. The total is also off the board everywhere.
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans (-9, 54.5)
The defending champs are on the ropes and heading down to the Crescent City with long odds. This line opened at Caesars/Harrah's at -7 1/2, quickly moving up to -8 1/2 during the course of the day on Monday. Westgate opened at -7 and quickly moved to -7 1/2, but if you are feeling the Saints you can still catch them at a good number.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 48)
A couple of weeks ago this game didn't look terribly attractive, but the Titans have rattled off two impressive wins in a row, while the Colts are on a three-game heater. Tennessee heads into this one with a perfect 6-0 ATS mark over their past six inside the division, although they're just 19-42-2 ATS in the past 65 against AFC foes overall. The Colts are 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 inside the division, but 16-5-1 ATS in the past 22 home games against teams with a winning road mark. TI opened this one at -1 1/2, moving up to 2.
Many other shops opened this game at -3, and it's down to -2 1/2 or -2. People are liking the Titans early on, but you can expect money to pour in on the Colts at some point.
Houston Texans (-3, 42.5) at Washington Redskins
The line of this game has settled into the -3 neighborhood at most shops, although TI was offering it up at -2 1/2 as of late Monday afternoon if you have a early strong lean toward Houston. As far as the total, it has tumbled slightly from 43 to 42 1/2.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (PK, 51)
The Bucs have settled on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick on the starting job yet again this week, while the Giants are coming off a rare win on Monday night in San Francisco. The line bounced back and forth at most shops from Giants -1 to pick 'em. There is likely to be a little belief in the Giants after their win on Monday, but bettors might not be all-in since they still have just two wins and they're playing on a short week.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 46.5)
After Week 10, the Bolts picked up another double-digit win on the road while continuing to fly under the radar in their own city, with the Rams garnering most of the headlines.
This line has been a flat seven at all but one shop, TI, which is offering the Chargers at -6 1/2. Denver heads in just 2-6 ATS in the past eight against winning teams and 1-6 ATS in the past seven inside the division. The Bolts are 5-2 ATS in the past seven inside the division.
Oakland Raiders at Arizona Cardinals (-4, 40.5)
The Raiders and Cardinals have each had some difficulty this season, and they'll be picking early in the 2019 NFL Draft. After giving the Kansas City Chiefs a pretty good shot last week, bettors are liking the Cards. Atlantis had the Cards -3 1/2, moving up to -4. The line toggled between -4, -3 1/2 and back up to -4 at Caesars, while if you like the Raiders check out TI, who has the line at -4 1/2.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 47.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Steelers cannot seem to stop anyone on defense, although they're clicking on offense while getting past the Le'Veon Bell drama and just concentrating on what they have in house right now. The Jaguars have been a huge disappointment, opening strong, but internal problems and injuries have killed any early-season momentum.
Westgate Superbook opened this game at -3 1/2, quickly shooting up to -5 1/2 in less than 24 hours. No one is feeling the Jags at home. The only place the line actually dropped was Atlantis, going from -6 to -5 1/2.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (-3, 45.5)
This NFC North battle has been flexed into the Sunday night game, and it should be a good black and blue battle. If you're feeling the Bears, check out Southpoint, as they're offering Chicago at -2 1/2. TI opened it up at just -1 1/2, slowly moving to -2. You can expect plenty of movement on this one.
Monday, Nov. 19
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 63.5)
The Chiefs and Rams currently has a total higher than any line, since lines have been tracked, in the history of the NFL. Vegas is expecting a shootout, or tiroteo if you like since it's in Mexico.
The total actually opened at 64 at Westgate and fell slightly to 63 1/2 to get in line with most other shops. They also opened the Rams at just -1, quickly moving up to -2 1/2 during the course of 20 hours. As of Monday night, most everywhere had the Rams at that line. However, this game is likely to see a ton of movement since it's a marquee game on a Monday night. Expect a lot of attention and perhaps the largest handle of the season for any one game.
6 Wins in a Row, 7-1 Playoffs
5-0 L2 Sundays, 6-1 L7 G-Plays
11-1 L12 G-Plays, 19-6 L25 Picks
5-0 L2 Sun, 30-12 Run, 10-2 GPlays
8-2 L10, 12-3 Run, 15-4 L5 Sundays
8-1 GPlays, 17-6 L11 Sun, 18-8 Run
11-2 G-Plays, 5-2 L7, 20-9 Streak
10-3 L13, 25-5 Run, 8-1 Totals
14-5 L19 G-Plays, +1,277 Overall
3-1 Conf. Champ., 5-1 L6 Totals
16-7 L23, 27-11 Win Streak
11-4 L15 Guaranteed Plays
7-3 L10, 17-5 Run, 16-6 G-Plays
9-4 L13, 16-6 L22 Selections
7-3 L3 Sundays, 11-4 L15 Totals
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