Betting Recap – Week 11

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Broncos (+7, ML +280) at Chargers, 23-22
Raiders (+4.5, ML +180) at Cardinals, 23-21
Lions (+4, ML +180) vs. Panthers, 20-19
Cowboys (+3.5, ML +165) at Falcons, 22-19

The largest favorite to cover
Saints (-7) vs. Eagles, 48-7

Marching Saints

-- The New Orleans Saints treated the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints by a 48-7 score, the worst loss by the Eagles this season. It was also the worst loss in NFL history by a defending champ, too. The Saints are looking championship caliber lately, winning nine straight since an inexplicable opening-day loss to the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they have covered eight in a row dating back to Week 2. They have also rolled up 30 or more points in four straight, and seven of the past eight contests. 

Bronco Bucks

-- The Los Angeles Chargers had been on quite the roll, but an old friend dropped them down a peg. The rival Denver Broncos caught the Bolts napping late, rallying for a 23-22 victory. It snapped a six-game win streak for the Broncos dating back to Sept. 23 against the crosstown Los Angeles Rams, and it was their first loss of the season straight-up against a losing team. The 'under' has connected in four in a row for the Bolts. As far as the Broncos, they were the biggest 'dog on the board on Sunday, and they won for just the second time in the past eight outings since a 2-0 SU start. Denver is suddenly a favorite at the betting window, going 4-1 ATS over the past five.  

Total Recall

-- The highest total on the board (57) was the Philadelphia-New Orleans battle, but the Eagles killed 'over' tickets with a paltry seven points. The Saints did their best to help bettors, but the 'under' ended up just coming in. The second-highest total (54) on the board was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-New York Giants, and the Bucs were back to their high-scoring and many point allowing ways after a defensive moment last weekend. The 'over' is now 8-2 in 10 games overall for the Bucs, including a perfect 6-0 on the road.

-- On Thursday night, the Green Bay Packers-Seattle Seahawks (49.5) battle snuck over the total, as did Sunday's primetime battle between the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (44). In fact, if ESPN's Scott Van Pelt did a "Bad Beats" segment for the NFL, the SNF game would definitely be featured. Minnesota scored a touchdown with :48 remaining in regulation to turn a sure 'under' into an 'over' result, even so barely. 

-- The lowest total on the board was the battle between the Oakland Raiders-Arizona Cardinal s (41), and a game-winning field goal at the end of regulation gave the Raiders a 23-21 win, changing a push at most shops into an over result. The other game with a total of 41, the Houston Texans-Washington Redskins ironically ended up with a 23-21 score, too. 

-- This week saw just four games on Sunday with a total over 50, and only one hit the 'over'. That was the Bucs-Giants game. The Monday night battle between the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Rams (63) also easily cashed with more than 100 points (I know, that is hard to get used to).

-- The 'over' went 3-0 in three primetime games in Week 11, with the Monday night game between the Chiefs-Rams (63) just an offensive showcase. Overall for the 2018 season the 'over' in primetime games is 19-15 (55.9%).

Officially, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 games under the lights in 2017.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. 

In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Buccaneers TE O.J. Howard (ankle) was forced out of Sunday's loss against the Giants and he was unable to return.

-- Lions RB Kerryon Johnson (knee) checked out of Sunday's win against the Panthers with what is believed to be a knee sprain, although he'll have an MRI on Monday just to be certain.

-- Raiders WR Brandon LaFell (Achilles') suffered a ruptured Achilles' tendon in the win against the Cardinals and he is done for the season.

-- Redskins QB Alex Smith (leg) broke both his fibula and tibia in Sunday's 23-21 loss against the Texans and he is obviously out for the season.

-- Titans QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) checked out of Sunday's loss in Indianapolis and he was unable to return.

Looking Ahead

-- The Bears look to carve up the Lions on Thanksgiving Day in Motown. Chicago has covered four in a row inside the division, and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven against teams with a losing record. They're also 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 in the month of November. However, Chicago is a dismal 1-6 ATS in their past seven appearances on Thursday. The Lions have posted a 5-2 ATS mark across their past seven appearances on Thursday. The Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings, including a 34-22 win against the Lions on Nov. 11 in Chitown. However, the Bears are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Detroit.

-- The Redskins enter 5-1 ATS in the past six overall, and they're 16-5 ATS in the past 21 following a straight-up loss. But they will have QB Colt McCoy under center after Smith's season-ending injury. The Cowboys enter 4-11 ATS in the past 15 against winning teams, and 2-8 ATS in the past 10 appearances on Thursday. However, they're 5-1 ATS in the past six inside the division. They have struggled against the 'Skins, though, going just 2-9 ATS in their past 11 at home vs. Washington. The road team is 2-7 ATS in the past nine meetings, and the underdog is an impressive 31-10 ATS in the past 41 meetings.

-- The Falcons limp into the dome just 2-6 ATS in the past eight overall and 1-4 ATS in their past five road outings. The Saints have covered eight in a row, they're 14-6 ATS in the past 20 inside the division and they're 11-5 ATS in the past 16 against losing squads. Atlanta is a dismal 2-5 ATS in the past seven trips to the Crescent City, too.

-- The Browns head down I-71 to the Queen City to battle the Bengals. Cleveland is just 4-11-1 ATS in the past 16 road games, and 5-15-1 ATS in the past 21 divisional games. The Bengals have covered five of the past six inside the division, including a straight-up loss but road cover against the Ravens in Week 11. The favorite has covered six in a row in this series, and Cleveland has failed to cover seven consecutive meetings.

-- The Giants enter 3-1-1 ATS in the past five against losing teams, but just 2-5 ATS in the past seven inside the division. New York has covered four in a row on the road, however. The Eagles are just 2-7 ATS in the past nine overall, and 0-4 ATS in the past four games at home. Philly could get well at home, however, as the Giants are just 6-14-1 ATS in the past 21 against the Eagles. The 'over' has hit in six straight meetings, too.

-- For whatever reason, the Jets have had the number of the Patriots lately. New England is just 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings, and 0-5 ATS in their past five trips to New Jersey. The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings, too.

-- The Packers head to Minnesota with a 1-5-1 ATS mark over the past seven on the road, and they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five divisional games. The Vikings are 5-2 ATS in the past seven home meetings with their rivals. The under is also a perfect 4-0 in the past four meetings in this series.

-- The Titans and Texans do battle on Monday night deep in the heart of Texas. Tennessee loves Monday Night Football, covering in seven straight MNF battles. They're also 6-1 ATS in the past seven inside the division. The Texans aren't as big a fan of MNF, going 2-10 ATS in their past 12 appearances. The 'under' is 6-0 in Tennessee's past six inside the division, while the under is 5-2 in Houston's past seven vs. AFC South foes.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

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