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Vegas Money Moves – Week 14

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
Editor's Note: Don't miss out on NFL winners from Micah Roberts on VegasInsider.com this season. Click to win!

There are a few key divisional games in Sunday's Week 14 action and the wise guys have jumped all over a couple of sides, and in one case two separate groups are on opposite sides.

"They're (sharps) taking both sides in the Colts-Texans game," said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "They laid -4 with the Texans and some others took +4.5 with the Colts and also the money-line."

The Colts money-line was +195 and +190 and it's down to +180 with the Texans being -210. The Colts fell to 6-6 last week while the AFC South-leading Texans are 9-3 riding a nine-game win streak (6-2-1 ATS). Traditionally, the road team is 6-1-2 ATS in their last nine meetings, including the Texans 37-34 win in Week 4 at Indy after an 0-3 start. The Texans haven't lost since. One team is fighting for a wild card while the other is fighting for a bye and home field.

William Hill sports books have seen 81 percent of the tickets written on the game siding with the Texans, but only 58 percent of the actual cash.

The NFC East has a battle for first place with the Eagles visiting Dallas and there's no dispute between the sharps here.

"We've had two max bets on the Eagles and they're also taking the Eagles money-line as well," said Simbal. "They took +4, +3.5, and +170, forcing us down to +160."

CG Tech books are showing the Cowboys -3 (-120) as of Friday afternoon while most books are -3.5 EVEN with the exception of the South Point who are -3 flat, the only shop that uses exclusively flat numbers. Just for future reference if monitoring line moves and getting a feel for what sharps are playing, the South Point number is the most important number to watch.

In the Eagles favor this week is that the road team has covered 11 of the past 14 meetings, including the Cowboys' 27-20 win at Philly four weeks ago which started the Cowboys current four-game win streak. Last week, the Eagles won two-straight for the first time of the season and even their record at 6-6. William Hill books have seen 60 percent of the tickets bet on the Cowboys while 62 percent of the actual cash has come in on the Eagles. It's the perfect example of Pro's versus regular Joe's.

The Cardinals had a huge win last week at Green Bay handing the Packers their first home loss of the season while also getting Mike McCarthy fired. The Lions have lost five of their last six games but the sharps like them this week.

"We've taken Lions wagers at -1.5 and -2 and are sitting -2.5 (-120) now," said Simbal. "This is game where we're not going to get much public support on the home team, either."

The Cardinals are 6-5-1 ATS showing they're better than their weekly rating despite only winning three games this season. The home team is 12-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings, for whatever that's worth.

The divide at William Hill books isn't as strong with only 64 percent of the best and 65 percent of the wagers on the Lions. Detroit won 35-23 at home in last seasons meeting.

Perhaps the most interesting game of the day is the Bears getting points at home against the 11-1 Rams.

"They played the Bears at +3.5," said Simbal who now has the Rams -3 flat. MGM properties and the Westgate Superbook have the Rams -3 (EVEN), everyone else is -3 flat.

William Hill books are showing 76 percent of the tickets written and 71 percent of cash taken on the Rams. It's expected to be 28 degrees Sunday night at Chicago and QB Mitchell Trubisky is expected to start after missing the past two weeks (shoulder).

Simbal says his largest public games (parlay wagers) are the Cowboys, Chiefs (-7 EVEN vs Ravens) and Saints (-9 at Tampa Bay). William Hill's most public plays with tickets counts are the Texans (81 percent), Saints (86 percent), Giants -3.5 (88 percent) at Washington and the Chargers -14 (80 percent) against the Bengals.

Of those games, the most intriguing looks to be a possible playoff preview with the Ravens at Kansas City. Lamar Jackson is starting again at QB despite Joe Flacco being healthy, and why not? The Ravens have won all three of his starts and coupled with the No, 1 defense, the Ravens are in a groove. The Chiefs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five after covering their first seven games.

"I think it's an interesting dynamic with Jackson running the ball," said Simbal. "Teams are having trouble with it and in this case, Kansas City's defense has been having all kinds of trouble defending traditional offenses and now they have to deal with the QB taking off and running."

Most books in Las Vegas have the Chiefs -6.5 with a total at 51.

Roberts is a former Las Vegas sports book director that has been covering the sports betting industry for the last 14 years.

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