Win Total and SOS Analysis
By conventional measure, weighing an NFL team's strength of schedule is simple and straightforward.The common approach is to collectively add-up each opponent's win-loss record from the previous season to help determine each opponent's potential win probability for the coming campaign.
Playbook Method: NFL Strength Of Schedule vis-a-vis Season Win Totals
Another variable is to assess each opponent's season win totals for the upcoming season and tally the accumulative amount of wins.
It's my contention this represents a truer methodology. After all, which is more relevant: knowing how an opponent fared in last year's battles, or the expected degree of difficulty awaiting them this year?
SuperBook Season Win Totals
Let's take a look at the opening 2019 NFL season win totals posted by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas on April 30.
Teams are ranked from top-to-bottom based on each team's foes most projected season win totals to the fewest season win totals.
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As you can see by this method, Arizona will take on the most difficult schedule, followed by Tampa bay and the New York Giants. On the flip side, Houston and New England has the cushiest schedule in 2019, with the New York Jets and the Philadelphia Eagles also beneficiaries of a soft slate.
In addition Houston also faces the toughest non-division schedule with Detroit going up against the easiest non-division foes. Finally, again it’s New England facing the weakest division slate, and Detroit drawing the toughest division pairings.
Also note that many of the opening season-win totals carried extra "juice" (i.e. Buffalo 6.5 “over” -130, Houston 8.5 “under” -140). For the purpose of this study the extra cost was removed from all season win totals.
Where to place a bet this NFL Season?
- Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
- Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
- Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.
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