Betting Recap – Week 1

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

8 minute read

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Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

• Cardinals (+7, ML +280) at 49ers, 24-20
• Jaguars (+7, ML +280) vs. Colts, 27-20
• Football Team (+5.5, ML +210) vs. Eagles, 27-17
• Bears (+2.5, ML +110) at Lions, 27-23

The largest favorite to cover

• Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Texans, 34-20
• Patriots (-7) vs. Dolphins, 21-11
• Ravens (-7) vs. Browns, 38-6
• Bills (-6.5) vs. Jets, 27-17

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

It happens. You'll see that guy in the corner of the bar or at the sportsbook in utter agony. Well, in normal non-COVID times, anyway. He was just buying strangers shots, whooping it up...then the bottom drops out. He likely bet a sizeable amount on a 1 o'clock game, already checked his game off as a win and has called the guy or hit the window or app to bet on the late-afternoon window of games a little more fervently than normal. Then, he checks the score. It goes downhill in a hurry.

I'll be honest. I played the Chicago Bears +3 Sunday on the road against the Detroit Lions solely on the fact WR Kenny Golladay was sidelined, and I figured the boys in silver and Honolulu blue would have a more ground-based attack. And it's never good to try and run into the teeth of the Bears defense, their strongest unit. Well, Detroit was running at will. RB Adrian Peterson, who was signed less than a week ago after being released from the Washington Football Team. He gobbled up 93 yards, or 6.6 yards per carry, and the Lions ran for 138 yards, a touchdown and 4.8 yards per tote. Anyway, through 45 minutes, the Lions led 23-6 and I was the opposite of that guy at the bar. At about 3:20 p.m. ET, I wrote this one off as my being on the wrong side, and was ready to move along. Then, QB Mitchell Trubisky did something he rarely ever does. He was effective in the fourth quarter, tossing three touchdowns to help the visitors outscore the Lions 21-0 in the final quarter, including 14 points in the final 2:58. Final score, Chicago 27-23. I'll take it.

 Total Recall

Week 1 was difficult to figure heading into action, as the normal pomp and circumstance of opening day across the National Football League was a bit muted during this COVID era. We saw a smattering of fans allowed to attend the Thursday Night Football game between the Houston Texans and the Kansas City Chiefs. In the Sunday slate of games, only the Jacksonville Jaguars allowed fans in for their home game against the Indianapolis Colts. The normal places where fans make a huge difference with their noise did not affect sides or totals. But overall the action was good, and we had some pretty decent football, all things considered. Remember, there were no preseason games, so this was the first game action for a lot of these teams since last winter.

The lowest total on the board, and the only one in the 30's, was the AFC East tussle between the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills at New Era Field. If you were an over bettor, you liked the fast start, as the Bills tossed up a 14-0 lead after 15 minutes, and it was 21-3 at halftime. We had a single-digit number on the board in the third quarter, and the fourth quarter probably should have, too. However, the Jets scored a 2-yard rushing touchdown with just :54 left in regulation to flip the total from under to over. Ouch.

The highest total for Sunday's slate of games was the Seattle Seahawks-Atlanta Falcons (49.5) game, which saw a total of 63 points. There were just 26 points on the board at halftime, and the total really could have gone either way. The total was stuck at 49 from 9:35 of the fourth quarter to 3:45 when Seahawks RB Carlos Hyde saved the day with a 1-yard touchdown plunge. Falcons WR Calvin Ridley dealt a crushing blow to under teaser bettors with a 7-yard scoring reception with just :33 remaining.

The Thursday night game barely inched 'over', and depending on when the wager was placed, the 'under' hit. We'll call it an over because it closed at 53.5. The Sunday Night game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Rams at the pristine SoFi Stadium near LAX was a defensive battle with just 37 total points and a 51-point total on the board. The Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants in the early MNF battle, and the Tennessee Titans and Denver Broncos in the late-night MNF affair, each went under. During the early going, the 'over' is just 1-3 (25.0%) in four primetime games.

In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during the primetime schedule, a stark change from the previous six-year span. The over was ahead of the under in five of the six seasons from 2013-18, including an amazing 66.0% (33-17) clip in 2014.

Looking Ahead to Week 2

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Bengals lost a heartbreaker at home against the Los Angeles Chargers, 16-13, easily hitting the 'under'. Rookie QB Joe Burrow was driving them for a potential winning touchdown drive. They faltered, and had to settle for a field goal to force overtime, but PK Randy Bullock appeared to pull up lame on the attempt and he shanked the kick, leaving the Bengals still in search of their first win since the 2018 season.

The Browns were trampled 38-6 by the Baltimore Ravens on the road. Cleveland's lack of offense also helped the under connect in their game. While the under is 5-1-1 in the past seven meetings between these rivals in Cleveland, the over is 4-0-1 in the previous five games overall in the series.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Panthers hit the over in 11 of their 16 games in 2019, while the Buccaneers led the NFL with 12 over results in 16 regular-season games. Those two teams hook up in 'Tompa Bay' next week, and both teams will be ornery. The Panthers fell 34-30 on their home field to the Las Vegas Raiders, as new head coach Matt Rhule went for it on fourth and inches late in the game, utilizing his fullback rather than RB Christian McCaffrey. The latter became just the third player in NFL history to run for at least 1,000 yards and post 1,000 receiving yards in a single season. Instead, Rhule chose to gain the tough yards with FB Alex Armah, who entered the game with 15 career carries and 26 yards in his first 41 NFL games. Yeah, the fans in Charlotte are wishing Riverboat Ron Rivera was back.

The Bucs, meanwhile, were manhandled by the New Orleans Saints 34-23. They didn't grab the cover, but the Bucs hit the over. Better times will be ahead. The Panthers have hit the number in six of their past seven in the shadows of the Pirate Ship at the Ray Jay, with the road team going 9-3 ATS in the past 12 overall in this series. The under is 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Bills were tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers with 12 under results in 16 regular-season games, leading the NFL in 2019. So that's what made their Week 1 over result against the New York Jets all the more surprising. The Dolphins hit the under, and they failed to cover. But at least they weren't boatraced like last season in Week 1, when Baltimore came to town and crowned them 59-10.

Anyway, the over is 8-2 in the past 10 meetings in this AFC East rivalry, with the favorite going 5-1 ATS in the previous six installments.

New Orleans Saints at Las Vegas Raiders (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

This is actually a highly-anticipated Monday night game, a rarity in the series lately. New Orleans won their game, and Las Vegas won its road contest as well. While there will be no fans in attendance at the palacial Allegiant Stadium off of Interstate 15 in Las Vegas, the Raiders will make their Nevada debut. The Saints are just 2-5 ATS in their past seven appearances on Monday Night Football, with the over going 5-2 in those games. Conversely, the Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in the past six MNF showings, and the under is a perfect 4-0 in their past four appearances on MNF.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

• Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
• Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
• Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

VegasInsider Staff

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